DFS Plays of the Day – August 16

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Sunday features an eight-game main slate on DraftKings. FanDuel has opted to include the Rockies/Rangers and Rays/Blue Jays games both starting at 3:00 PM EST to make their main slate ten games.

The lefty Kolby Allard will draw the start for the visiting Rangers at Coors Field. In 45.1 innings last season, Allard wasn’t great, posting a 4.96 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and a 6.7% K-BB%. Just 45 innings so not the best of sample sizes for sure, but Allard didn’t really show a platoon split last season. In fact, he had the exact same K rate of 15.1% versus both righty and lefty batters. Trevor Story, Garrett Hampson, and Nolan Arenado will have the platoon advantage and are the likely chalk plays, but Charlie Blackmon projects almost equally as well according to the FTN’s projections.

The Rangers will get to face the righty Jon Gray (14.8% K-BB%, 28.2% CSW in 2019). Through his career (661 IP), Gray has been slightly worse against lefties allowing a .326 wOBA as opposed to a .317 mark against righties. Joey Gallo, meanwhile, has the highest hitter projection on the slate. Willie Calhoun, Shin-Soo Choo, and Nick Solak all grade out as great plays too. Both teams have an implied total of over seven runs.

 

Top SP: Lance McCullers Jr. HOU ($8,700 DK, $8,800 FD) vs SEA

 

The projections at FTN have Max Scherzer (30.3% K-BB%, 33.1% CSW in 2019) on the top of the board not surprisingly. Based solely on skills Scherzer is, of course, in a tier of his own. But, the discount down to Lance McCullers Jr. (17.5% K-BB% in 2018) is too tempting. McCullers was sharp in his last start getting five strikeouts (31% CSW) across seven innings against the Giants. The Astros are currently the biggest favorite on the board as they and McCullers will face-off against the Mariners and their 6th worst team wOBA of .293.

Honorable Mentions: Max Scherzer, WAS ($10,800 DK, $11,100 FD) at BAL.

 

Value SP: Elieser Hernandez, MIA ($6,600 DK, $6,800 FD) vs ATL.

 

This is a pretty tough slate for pitching in the bottom tier. Adam Plutko (11.2% K-BB% in 2019) is entirely a matchup play against the Tigers who currently have the second-worst team K rate at 27.6%.

The other interesting play in the bottom tier is Elieser Hernandez (16.7% K-BB%, 28.8% CSW) who is at home and gets to face a Braves lineup that is not only down both Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr, but also surprisingly has the third-worst team K rate at 27.4% behind just the Brewers and Tigers. Hernandez has shown some fairly decent strikeout ability with a 24.1% K rate last season.

Honorable Mention: Adam Plutko, CLE ($6,400 DK, $6,500 FD) at DET.

 

2B Keston Hiura, MIL ($4,600 DK, $3,100 FD) at CHC

 

Some of the Brewers project really well today as they get an exploitable matchup against Jon Lester (14.8% K-BB% in 2019) whose skills have long been in decline. Keston Hiura has a ton of power but he does swing and miss a lot. Fortunately for Hiura, Lester’s swinging strike rate sits at an alarmingly low 3.9% through his first 17 innings this year.

Honorable Mentions: Max Kepler, OF ($4,800 DK, $3,700 FD) vs KC; Christian Yelich, OF ($5,100 DK, $4,000 FD) at CHC; Eddie Rosario, OF ($4,200 DK, $3,400 FD) vs KC; George Springer, OF ($4,900 DK, $3,600 FD) vs SEA. 

 

3B Yoan Moncada, CWS ($4,800 DK, $3,300 FD) vs STL

 

Dakota Hudson (6.6% K-BB% in 2019) doesn’t get many swings and misses and has shown some pretty drastic splits for his career allowing a .348 wOBA to lefties as opposed to just .280 against righties. Yoan Moncada hit for a .391 wOBA against righties last season and makes for a great upside play in all formats.

Honorable Mentions: Franmil Reyes, OF ($4,200 DK, $2,700 FD) at DET; Carlos Correa, SS ($4,800 DK, $3,200 FD) vs SEA; Bryce Harper, OF ($5,300 DK, $4,100 FD) vs NYM; Jose Ramirez, 3B ($5,500 DK, $3,800 FD ) at DET; Kyle Schwarber, OF ($4,100 DK, $2,700) vs MIL.

 

Value Batter: OF Ian Happ, CHC ($3,300 DK, $2,900 FD) vs MIL

 

Ian Happ has gotten off to a very strong start hitting .309 (.299 xBA) with a .439 OBP. The early returns on his batted ball data are very encouraging too, including a .434 xwOBA. He’ll face off against the righty Josh Lindbloom, which is a good thing for Happ considering he’s been a much better hitter from the left side with a .361 wOBA and 124 wRC+ for his career. The Cubs have an implied total well over five runs.

Alec Bohm, 3B ($2,500 DK, $2,200 FD) vs NYM; Dylan Carlson, OF ($3,000 DK, $2,000 FD) at CWS; Avisail Garcia, OF ($3,500 DK, $2,600 FD) at CHC; Ryan Braun, OF ($3,700 DK, $2,400 FD) at CHC; Nomar Mazara, OF ($3,500 DK, $2,500 FD) vs STL.

 

Lineup Stack: Astros vs SEA (LHP Justus Sheffield)

 

It didn’t work out last night, but there’s plenty of reason to go back again to the Astros as they once again have one of the higher implied totals of the slate at just under six runs. They’ll face the lefty Justus Sheffield (11.3% K-BB% in 2019) who struggled last season with a 5.50 ERA and 1.72 WHIP across 38 innings. A walk rate north of 10% didn’t help much either. Sheffield also allowed a .380 wOBA to opposing righties last season. It should be no surprise then that George Springer projects as one of the best bats of the day hitting leadoff, his teammate Alex Bregman too. The lefty Yordan Alvarez is another high upside bat that shouldn’t be forgotten in tournaments.

The other notable spots for offense include the Indians and their matchup on the road in Detroit against Michael Fulmer who is being stretched out. The rookie Brady Singer gets to face the Twins again for the second time in a week, this time at Minnesota. The Brewers get a very intriguing matchup against the ghost of Jon Lester. And the Phillies have a date with Rick Porcello, though the weather in that game may be worth monitoring.

Honorable Mentions: CLE at DET (Fulmer); MIL at CHC (Lester); MIN vs KC (Singer).

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)