Tuesday brings an 11 game slate, the Orioles and Mariners will be playing a double-header, so we’ll ignore that seven-inning contest.
Top SP: Trevor Bauer, LAD ($10,200 DK, $11,000 FD) vs COL
As far as starting pitching goes tonight, let’s not bury the lede. Lucas Giolito and Shane Bieber will face off in what should be tonight’s singular duel. Among tonight’s probable pitchers in the past two seasons combined, Giolito is second with a 31.6% CSW and 24.2% K-BB%. First? Yes, that would be Bieber at 32.9% and 27.7% respectively. Get your popcorn ready. Jack Flaherty (30.6% CSW, 22.2% K-BB% 2019-20) and Stephen Strasburg (31% CSW, 22.7% K-BB% 2019-20) should be another fun one too.
Let’s instead pick on the Road Rockies. Last year’s N.L. Cy-Young winner Trevor Bauer (29.9% CSW, 21.4% K-BB% 2019-20) toyed with this same lineup back at Coors in his first start of the year going six and a third while recording 10 Ks and a 36% CSW. Skills wise the edge goes to Bieber and Giolito. The matchup, though, is firmly in Bauer’s favor. Last season the Rockies recorded a team wOBA of .291, wRC+ of 79, and 26.4% K-rate on the road all fourth worst. The Dodgers are the biggest favorite on the board (-330) while the visiting Rockies have the lowest implied team total of the evening at just under three runs.
Value SP: Brandon Woodruff, MIL ($7,500 DK, $8,800 FD) vs CHC
The Cubs’ offense has been dreadful out of the gate. They aren’t this bad, right? Anyways, Cubs fans might want to avert their eyes for a moment. Let’s take a look at some way too early team stats. Through ten games the Cubs are at the bottom with a .264 team OBP and .321 SLG. That will reverse course eventually, but right now it might not be a bad idea to take advantage. Regardless of the matchup, Brandon Woodruff just looks mispriced. From 2019-20 his 23.7% K-BB% ranks third and yet he’s the 11th most expensive pitcher on DraftKings. The Brewers are solid home favorites tonight (-140) with the visiting Cubs’ implied total sitting at a modest three and a half runs.
After a season-opening dud against the Cardinals, Luis Castillo, predictably bounced back in his second start against the Pirates breezing through seven frames with ease while needing only 81 pitches to do so. The Giants hit well as a team last season recording a .337 team wOBA (6th). Regardless, Castillo looks underpriced relative to his talent level. Relative to tonight’s probable starters the past two seasons, his 29.9% CSW% and 19.8% K-BB% rank sixth and ninth respectively. And yet he’s the 14th most expensive pitcher on DraftKings. This looks like another discount worth taking advantage of.
His peer tonight Kevin Gausman (29.9% CSW%, 19,8% K-BB 2019-20) is another to consider. After last year’s breakout, Gausman has had two strong starts so far. Although, his track record is less extensive than Castillo’s. Pitching conditions in tonight’s game at San Francisco should be favorable too with temperatures hovering in the low 50s.
SS Corey Seager, LAD ($5,500 DK, $3,900 FD) vs COL
The Dodgers implied run total jumps to the top of the board as they get a date with Antonio Senzatela (23.5% CSW, 4.7% K-BB 2019-20). Corey Seager, meanwhile, will have the platoon advantage and is also the man who recorded a .427 xwOBA and 12.1% Barrels/PA (2nd among qualifiers) last season.
OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($5,200 DK, $3,500 FD) at TOR
The Yankees are in an interesting spot this evening. After being stymied last night by Robbie Ray, you’d figure their roster percentages should be way down tonight. And they should be. No one should want to pick on Hyun-jin Ryu (27.5% CSW, 19.4% K-BB% 2019-20). But after being reminded of Giancarlo Stanton’s career splits against lefties, it’s tempting. Those numbers? A .294 /.391/ .627 slash, .421 wOBA, and 169 wRC+. His statcast numbers remain as eye-popping as ever making the enigmatic slugger at the very least a noteworthy tournament target.
Value Batter: OF Justin Upton, LAA ($3,500 DK, $2,700 FD) at KC
The Angels are worth targeting tonight as Danny Duffy’s 13% K-BB% and 26.7% CSW (2019-20) both rank near the bottom of the board among tonight’s probable starters. The veteran southpaw has also ceded a .194 ISO to opposing RHB over the past two seasons. Meanwhile, as Cole Bailey illustrates here, Justin Upton might not be done just yet.
One of the best hitting prospects in baseball, Gavin Lux fills a tricky 2B position and gets a very favorable draw against Antonio Senzatela whose 4.7% K-BB% is easily the worst on the slate. The Dodgers’ have one of the two implied run totals over five runs tonight, the other being the Astros.
Honorable Mentions: Gavin Lux, 2B ($3,800 DK, $2,600 FD) vs COL, Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS ($2,700 FD) at TOR; Yoshitomo Tsutsugo 1B ($3,800 DK, $2,400 FD) vs TEX; Nomar Mazara, OF ($2,200 DK, $2,200 FD) at HOU.
Top Stack: LAD vs COL (RHP Antonio Senzatela)
This is a tricky slate to figure in terms of stacks with all of the quality pitching this evening. The Yankees as mentioned earlier could be a contrarian stack in tournaments. And the same holds true for the Jays on the other side of that game as they’ll face Jameson Taillon who’s still getting settled after missing the past two seasons.
The Angels matchup against Duffy is worth targeting, but the loss of Anthony Rendon to the IL takes away at least some of the appeal.
And evidently, it would appear that the bookmakers are indeed not Boyd Boys. With the Astros entrenched as heavy road favorites against the visiting Tigers and Matt Boyd this evening. The righty power for the Astros is in play for sure as Boyd has allowed a .347 wOBA and .244 ISO to opposing RHB over the past two seasons.
That brings us back to the Dodgers. And that’s by virtue of facing, on paper at least, the weakest pitcher tonight in Senzatela (4.3% K-BB% 2019-20). They’ll be without Cody Bellinger again, but they could, potentially, get Mookie Betts back tonight. Splits-wise Senzatela has allowed a .366 wOBA to LHB as opposed to .338 vs RHB in the past two seasons. Zach McKinstry could be a potential value play to consider if he’s in there. Will Smith (.407 xwOBA last season) is an excellent target at catcher in all formats. Max Muncy (.364 xwOBA last season), like Seager, gets the platoon advantage and is a power upside bat that makes sense in all formats.
Honorable Mentions: LAA at KC (Duffy); NYY at TOR (Ryu, GPP only); TOR vs NYY (Taillon, GPP only); HOU vs DET (Boyd).
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)