DFS Daily Breakdown – September 22

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Wednesday.

Happy Wednesday! Today we get a 10-game slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel with a start time of 7:05. As of this writing, there doesn’t look to be anything threatening, though there is about a 10% chance of rain in the Rangers/Yankees and Orioles/Phillies games. Just something to keep an eye on. Let’s take a look at the implied run totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

Implied Run Totals

So while there is no line in the Cubs/Twins game, there is currently forecasted to be a 24 mph wind blowing in from leftfield. That game total is going to be low, so both of those pitchers are in play for me. In addition to those two teams, we currently have six teams with an implied total of 4.1 runs or less. That gives us eight potential pitchers to choose from. There are also eight teams with an implied total of 5.0 or more. That doesn’t even include the Cardinals or Brewers, who barely miss the cut. We’ll include them in our analysis to see if we can find some sneaky hitters. Let’s take a look at some of our pitching options.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

While I love when we have plenty of options in consideration for our pitchers, sometimes it is tough to make the ultimate decision on who to start. Hopefully, the numbers will help narrow down our choices so that we don’t have to make a choice as tough as Sophie’s.

Pitcher Matchups

Despite the lovely weather in Chicago, I’m going to fade Joe Ryan in cash games. I’m also fading Chris Sale today. We just have other pitchers in better situations, but I’m cool with Sale as a GPP option.

Up top, I love Luis García ($10,000 DK, $8,300 FD), Zack Wheeler ($10,400 DK, $10,700 FD), and Corey Kluber ($9,000 DK, $8,000 FD). I’d love to play two of these guys in cash, but I’m not sure what our bats would look like if we’re paying close to $20k on our pitchers. We’ll likely have to just pick one, and the above order is my order of preference.

In the mid-range, I really like Ian Anderson ($8,400 DK, $8,000 FD), but it’s really tough to look past his 10% walk rate on the year. Kyle Hendricks ($7,500 DK, $7,800 FD) is a boring but solid play. With the wind blowing in like crazy, his price tag is just too cheap.

Finally, call me a crazy person, but Cole Irvin ($5,800 DK, $8,200 FD) is in play in cash games where you need a little extra cash to get the big bats. The fear is that his strikeout upside (or downside) limits his floor. In his last two outings against the Mariners, he has a 9.00 ERA. He doesn’t have to do a lot for us at his cost, but he can’t do that.

 

Hitter Stacks

 

I don’t think I’ve ever mentioned this, but at the ungodly hour that I have to write this, none of the optimizers are up and running yet. So all of this is kind of “blind analysis.” I’m identifying favorable spots with my eyes, not a projected point per dollar analysis. For me, it just keeps me different from the group thinking that happens with the optimizers. On Sunday, I said Jarred Kelenic was one of my favorite plays on the slate. He was relatively cheap at $3,500, and despite a nice matchup, he was just 4% rostered in double-ups. His 32 points led me to cash. Let’s take a look at our hitting options today:

Hitting Matchups

Everything in my gut says “fade the Dodgers,” but I’m just not sure we’re going to be able to get away with it. Or, that may just be my Germán Márquez bias shining through. To be fair to Márquez, he’s pitched really well in Coors this year, posting a 3.16 ERA at home. If I’m playing Dodgers, I’m likely grabbing the value that Gavin Lux ($2,800 DK, $3,300 FD) and Corey Seager ($4,300 DK, $4,000 FD) provide. From there, I think you’ll be able to fit in one of Mookie Betts ($6,000 DK, $4,100 FD) and Trea Turner ($5,700 DK, $4,300 FD).

A strong pivot off the Dodgers is the Astros. Or maybe the Dodgers are the pivot off of the Astros? Either way, the Astros are a strong option today. Like the Dodgers, you can grab some value in Jose Siri ($2,100 DK, $2,700 FD) and combine him with Carlos Correa ($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD), Kyle Tucker ($4,400 DK, $3,500 FD), and Yuli Gurriel ($4,200 DK, $3,000 FD) to make a really reasonably priced stack. In fact, outside of Altuve and Alvarez, the Astros are really priced down. You’ll have to keep an eye on the lineups, though, as Siri is not currently in the projected starting lineup.

It’s funny. Usually, the stacks that I drift to are high-end, but so far, both options are quite affordable. The same can be said for the Cardinals. The highest-priced bats are Paul Goldschmidt ($4,600 DK, $4,200 FD) and Nolan Arenado ($4,600 DK, $3,700 FD) and as you head down the lineup, there’s plenty of value in Dylan Carlson ($3,000 DK, $2,900 FD) and Tyler O’Neill ($4,300 DK, $3,700 FD).

The ultimate contrarian stack today is the high-priced Giants. Over the last month, they’ve mashed against right-handed pitching, which is awesome. However, they’re priced up like they’re chilling out in Coors. I’m going to throw in a small GPP lineup into a single entry contest featuring the Giants’ stack.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters on today’s slate. Keep in mind; this is being written well before lock. Make sure you check lineups once they’re posted to find the additional value that opens up.

Value Plays

If you stuck around, here’s a sample cash game lineup:

Sample Cash Game Lineup

Good luck today!

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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