DFS Daily Breakdown – September 12

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Sunday.

Happy Sunday! Today we get an 11-game slate on DraftKings with an early start of 12:10. On FanDuel, they’re skipping the Rays/Tigers game and made it a 10-game slate starting at 1:05. Personally, I prefer the DK slate as there’s another sport today that will be my main focus and I like that I won’t be updating two sports’ lineups leading up to lock. As of this writing, the weather is looking good across the country. Let’s take a look at the implied run totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

Implied Run Totals

I know there’s another sport starting up today, but this is shaping up to be a fun day of baseball. We currently have seven teams with implied totals north of 5.0 runs. Leading the pack at 6.4 runs is the Blue Jays. They’ll likely be the main feature of my cash game lineups as they face Zac Lowther and his 6.91 ERA. Oth the flip side, we have four teams with an implied total of 4.0 runs or below. We also have an additional three teams at 4.1 runs. That should give us plenty of options to choose from at starting pitcher. Let’s take a look at some options for our pitchers, and then we’ll check out our stacks.


Starting Pitchers


While I love when we have plenty of options in consideration for our pitchers, sometimes it is tough to make the ultimate decision on who to start. Hopefully, the numbers will help narrow down our choices so that we don’t have to make a choice as tough as Sophie’s.

Pitching Matchups

Sooooooooo, I should feel terrified about starting Eric Lauer in the semi-finals, right? Lauer and Steven Matz are easy fades. I’m also going to fade Lance Lynn in cash games but his strikeout rate makes him GPP eligible.

Looking at the rest of our options, Max Fried ($8,000 DK, $9,300 FD), Lance McCullers, Jr. ($10,100 DK, $9,000 FD), and Sonny Gray ($9,100 DK, $9,200 FD) look like the best options. I’d even throw Aaron Nola ($9,300 DK, $8,800 FD) into that race as the Rockies are significantly worse on the road than at home (don’t tell the Phillies bullpen that though). Fried is an easy lock into our line. The matchup is great and the price is right! From there, feel free to pick the option that fits into your lineup.

I’m not in love with the super cheap options on this slate, as Bailey Ober ($7,700 DK, $7,900 FD) is the lowest I’m willing to go. But with Fried being such a value, I don’t think I need to double “spend down” at pitcher today.


Hitter Stacks


As I mentioned earlier, the Blue Jays and their 6.4 implied run total are going to be the focus of my main stack. Facing a lefty, Bo Bichette ($5,200 DK, $4,000 FD) is a lock. On the year, he’s batting .341 with seven homers against southpaws. From there, we can lock in Lourdes Gurriel ($4,000 DK, $3,800 FD), before seeing who else of the big bats that we can squeeze in. Luckily for us, there’s another team that has a couple of really nice values to help us pay up elsewhere. Let’s take a look at our other hitting options today:

Hitting Matchups


Tampa Bay was the team I was referring to above, as they roll out Manuel Margot ($3,300 DK, $2,400 FD), Jordan Luplow ($3,100 DK, $2,300 FD), and Yandy Díaz ($4,200 DK, $2,900 FD) against left-handed pitching. Of course, I would love to get Nelson Cruz ($5,400 DK, $4,100 FD) into the lineup, but I’m more likely to spend my fun money on the Blue Jays and my smart money on the Rays.

I really like Atlanta and the Astros today, but to be honest with you, they look more like pivots off the Blue Jays than a team I’ll be able to have as my secondary stack. The price on Alex Bregman ($3,900 DK, $4,000 FD) is a little suspect, but the rest of the Astros are priced up.

Finally, I also like the White Sox, Twins, and Phillies, but they’re coming in far behind the other four teams. Also, I’m having a tough time trying to figure out the pricing on Odúbel Herrera ($5,000 DK, $2,500 FD). He went from a sneaky-cheap lead-off man to priced through the roof.

I didn’t include them on the list, but the Brewers have an implied total of 4.9 runs. Their most expensive player is Eduardo Escobar ($4,100 DK, $3,600 FD), making them a really intriguing secondary stack that you don’t have to break the bank for.


Value Hitters


Here are some of the best value hitters on today’s slate. Keep in mind, this is being written well before lock. Make sure you check lineups once they’re posted to find the additional value that opens up.

Value Plays

If you stuck around, here’s a sample cash game lineup:

Sample Cash Game Lineup

This line will change, I just have to wait for starting lineups to drop. I want to pay down at catcher, so I can come up to Semien. I’ll likely have to bail on Bregman to save a little more cash, but I want to lock in the Blue Jays.

Good luck today!


Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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