DFS Daily Breakdown – September 1

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Wednesday.

Welcome to September! With the Mets/Marlins game already being postponed, today’s main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel features 10 games starting at 7:05. As of this writing, I’d also bank on the Nationals/Phillies game getting the PPD treatment, and there’s an 80%+ chance of rain from 4 pm to 10 pm. UPDATE: As I was wrapping this up, the Phillies/Nats game has been PPD. Let’s take a look at the implied run totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

Implied Run Totals

This is shaping up to be a tough slate. There are five teams with an implied total of 5.0 or above. However, we have to keep in mind that we’re likely losing the Phillies off that list. The Blue Jays will be very popular against Matt Harvey. On the flip side, there are eight teams (after we remove the Nationals) that have totals below 4.0 runs. That should give us plenty of options for our starting pitchers. Let’s take a look at some options for our pitchers, and then we’ll check out our stacks.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

While I love when we have plenty of options in consideration for our pitchers, sometimes it is tough to make the ultimate decision on who to start. Hopefully, the numbers will help narrow down our choices so that we don’t have to make a choice as tough as Sophie’s.

Pitching Matchups

This is some tough information to get through. The only thing I know is that Max Scherzer ($10,900 DK, $11,500 FD) will be locked in as my SP1. Now, I know I talked about how I also wanted to play the Blue Jays bats, which is made even tougher by paying up for Scherzer. I think I have a plan, but let’s get through the other SPs first.

I like Gerrit Cole ($9,900 DK, $11,200 FD) and Carlos Rodón ($10,100 DK, $10,200 FD), and honestly, I think they’re both really nice GPP pivots off Scherzer. For cash games, I like the combination of safety and upside that Scherzer provides.

I’ll be avoiding Drew Rasmussen ($7,000 DK, $6,000 FD) in cash games just because of the Red Sox current form. He’s been great since being stretched out as a starter, making him a nice, cheap GPP play.

You might just call me crazy, but I think I’m going off the chart for a cheap SP2. Joe Ryan ($5,000 DK) is making his MLB debut against the Cubs. In AAA this year, he holds a 75:10 K:BB over 57 innings thrown. In the Cubs, he gets a decent matchup against a team that has struck out at a near 30% clip against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days. At just $5,000, I see Ryan easily paying off his price, and he gives us the flexibility we were looking for to pay up for some Blue Jays.

 

Hitter Stacks

 

As I mentioned earlier, the Blue Jays and their 6.3 implied run total are going to be the focus of my main stack. Most of the top-end bats are properly priced up. Keep an eye on today’s lineup as George Springer was removed from last night’s game after pulling up short rounding second base. As of now, I’m going to try and get at least two of Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. ($6,100 DK, $4,400 FD), Bo Bichette ($5,500 DK, $3,900 FD), and Marcus Semien ($5,500 DK, $3,800 FD). I’m also likely going to have at least Corey Dickerson ($3,200 DK, $2,600 FD) from the cheaper players. Let’s take a look at our other hitting options today:

Hitting Matchups

Between liking Joe Ryan and the Twins being terrible of late, it looks like I’ll be placing a small wager on the under in the Twins/Cubs game.

The White Sox looks like a close 1B to the Blue Jays today. If you’re looking to get a little different, maybe paying up for José Abreu ($5,300 DK, $4,200 FD), Eloy Jiménez ($4,900 DK, $3,600 FD), and Yasmani Grandal ($5,500 DK, $2,800 FD) is the way to roll. They offer a similar upside to the Blue Jays at a slightly lower cost.

While the Yankees are a clear step back from the Blue Jays and White Sox today, I do like some of the value bats in their lineup. Luke Voit ($3,400 DK, $3,200 FD) is an easy lock into my lineup, while DJ LeMahieu ($4,000 DK, $3,400 FD) and Gio Urshela ($3,400 DK, $2,400 FD) also offer some nice value.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters on today’s slate. Keep in mind, this is being written well before lock. Make sure you check lineups once they’re posted to find the additional value that opens up.

Value Plays

If you stuck around, here’s the lineup I plan on using in cash games today:

Sample Cash Game Lineup

As of this writing, there isn’t a whole lot of value at catcher. I’m hoping that once lineups are announced some will open up. I also realized that Vlad is only 1B eligible today, so locking in Voit causes me to miss out.

Good luck today!

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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