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DFS Daily Breakdown – May 11

Swan breaks down the DFS slate for Wednesday.

Happy Wednesday! Yes, we’ve got yet another seven-game main slate. This has become the usual, and we can continue building lineups like the previous week. Diversify! If you’re playing three lineups, make one chalky, one risky, and one in-between. Furthermore, don’t overcommit to one player or stack.

The slate doesn’t have any exceptionally high projected scoring. Additionally, we’ve got some beautiful SPs toeing the rubber. Start with crafting the pitcher(s) you want, then get a four-person stack you’re comfortable with. Luckily, we’ve got a section for that. Then, smash in a value one-off, if needed.

Baseball is a game of high variance, and today’s as good as any to try something new. Good luck!

 

Implied Run Totals (IRT)

 

 

  • NYM @ WAS – The Mets projected for the highest IRT, and a favorable matchup makes them a viable stack option. The Nationals lineup is top-heavy, and (outside of Juan Soto or Josh Bell) you’ll want to steer clear.
  • TBR @ LAA – The IRT is low because of the two outstanding pitching options. Furthermore, making either of these two offenses a stack priority is ill-advised. There are better spots to build your lineups around for hitting. Also, Ohtani is pitching and unavailable as the DH, making it even more difficult to stack the Angels.

 

  • OAK @ DET – This matchup will be an interesting one. Both draw wildcard pitching matchups since both SPs have limited time in the big leagues. But both offenses are kind of meh. Additionally, Comerica is a massive ballpark, and HRs are limited. You’ll be able to find plenty of one-off value plays in this matchup.
  • BOS @ ATL – The Red Sox offense has struggled all season, but all the familiar faces with power will be in the lineup and against an SP with some walk issues. However, they are priced very high today for a team with one of the lowest IRT. The Braves are an expensive stack (specifically hitters 1-6). Perhaps the price and opposing SP push the field away, and their roster% will be light.

 

  • HOU @ MIN – The Astros are a stackable team on nearly every slate because they take walks and don’t strike out. This profile tends to lead to plenty of rallies and big point totals. They face off against Chris Archer, who can get crushed by LHBs. On the other side, the Twins are a lineup LOADED with cheaper options. If you’re looking for a more affordable stack, this is your team to go with high-end pitching.
  • BAL @ STL – Baltimore is a riskier stack option. Sure, the salaries are low, but they face an SP that doesn’t give up hard contact. Additionally, the field won’t be stacking them with an IRT under three. Outside of Goldschmidt and Arenado, the Cardinals are relatively cheap (compared to the other stack options). And with a 4.5 IRT and favorable SP matchup, they are an excellent place to stack.

 

  • KCR @ TEX – No IRT at this time, but this is a dome game. The pitching matchup suggests that it won’t be a low-scoring affair, and both teams are in play for stacking. I’d favor the Royals side because A.J. Alexy was known for giving up fly balls and lots of loud contact.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

GREEN Tier 

For DraftKings, this is your place to grab your SP1. FanDuel players, this trio is pricey, and it wouldn’t be out of line to look elsewhere for value. Lastly, consider these three SPs the top options for all cash games.

Shane McClanahan draws a tough matchup against Trout and company. But what’s it matter. Sugar Shane touts a ridiculous 13.08 K/9 with a 59.2% ground ball rate, and that is ELITE! He is the clear-cut top SP on the slate based purely on the upside and massive strikeout potential. Just plug him in, and you’ll get plenty of points!

Shohei Ohtani is another terrific arm but challenging matchup. However, Shohei punches out batters at the highest clip on the slate. He gets a slight discount because he allows a ton of fly balls, and I am nitpicking. What should really intrigue everyone is the suppressed salary on DraftKings, which will make him very chalky today.

Tylor Megill looks every bit of an ace. He’s striking out batters slightly higher than Eovaldi and inducing ground balls at a 45% clip. Furthermore, he gets a decent matchup against the Nationals. If he can dance around Juan Soto and Josh Bell, the rest of the lineup isn’t scary. Additionally, Megill lived in that $9-10K range for nearly a month and paid off his returns. Consider him a safe option that might get rostered less than Ohtani and McClanahan.

 

YELLOW Tier

This is your SP2 tier. The pool is limited, and these three pitchers offer different success pathways. Choose wisely!

Nathan Eovaldi looks priced accordingly for a mid-range SP option. He’s showcasing the slate’s fourth-highest K/9 (9.62) and the lowest walk rate. However, he’s been somewhat lucky and unlucky. Right? Odd to say that, but he’s got a 100% LOB rate and a 25% HR/FB rate. Lastly, the matchup against ATL could be an interesting pivot point for the slate. A good offense vs. a solid pitcher: something’s gotta give.

José Urquidy is not as good of an option on DraftKings (where Ks are king). Instead, Urquidy has been effective by limiting walks and keeping the basepaths clean. However, the low K-rate (14.7%) and 46% hard-hit rate allowed makes him a scarier option. I would put Urquidy in the GPP plays and hope he pitches deep enough to grab the quality start bonus.

Miles Mikolas has been phenomenal. But we can’t just go off of previous success in DFS. Mikolas’ success is his 45% ground ball rate and low walk rate. Sure, the 7.1 K/9 isn’t going to rack up point, but it’s the middle of the pack for a smaller slate. Furthermore, he’s a better option on FanDuel, especially since the Cardinals are heavy favorites.

 

Hitting Stacks

 

St Louis Cardinals (vs. Spenser Watkins)

  • The Cardinals have been a meh offense (93 wRC+) vs. RHP. However, they get a matchup against an SP giving up a .320 ISO to right-handed bats and striking out less than 20% of batters. Additionally, the Cardinals’ lineup is affordable and you can get a solid saving with Juan Yepez. Also, 2B is a sinkhole on this slate with very few value options; making Tommy Edman a good play at leadoff.
  • Rockies’ Core Stack Targets: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Tyler O’Neill.

 

New York Mets (vs. Aaron Sanchez)

  • One of the highest IRT belongs to the Mets, for a good reason. They’ve been an efficient offense and drawn a weaker SP matchup. All good things usually mean great things for DFS purposes. However, if we can all spot the great place, so can the field. I would consider this one of the chalkier stacks of the slate. My advice would be to get different with the stack or play them with a riskier SP.
  • Yankees’ Core Stack Targets: Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil.

 

Boston Red Sox (vs. Ian Anderson)

  • I reference this as a pivot point on the slate. Anderson is a decent SP but has command issues leading to walks and the potential for a big inning. Plus, Boston is an excellent offense—even if they haven’t shown it yet. The IRT might keep enough of the field off them that I’d love to stack them in all my GPPs. Lastly, Anderson has allowed a .190 ISO vs. left-handed bats in the previous two years, so Franchy Cordero and Jackie Bradley Jr. could be cheap options to get different.
  • Dodgers’ Core Stack Targets: Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, and Alex Verdugo.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the value hitters are players under $3500 on DK and under $3300 on FD—just a step below my cash players. Use these players to smash into your lineup when you need to save some salary.

 

Value Plays

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Dave Swan

Dave Swan is an avid Chicago Cubs fan that enjoys all aspects of fantasy baseball-especially DFS. He would trade his right arm for a GIF library of Greg Maddux pitches. Swan's baseball thoughts are available at @davithius.

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