Happy Friday! We have a 14-game slate today that kicks off at 7:05 pm EST with minimal weather implications. There is a slight warning of showers in Colorado that could hinder the MIA@COL game. Additionally, some light stuff potentially could affect WAS@ATL and KC@STL. Lastly, there are a few dome games (BOS@TOR, MIN@HOU, and SF@MIL). Weather aside, we have plenty of viable SPs and loads of inexpensive stacks to make for a fun slate. Enjoy!
Implied Run Totals
Nine teams have IRT over 5.0 today. So, what does that mean? It’s anyone’s guess who will be the team to put up a double-digit run total. The excellent news, roster% will likely be spread between the teams, and we may need to get creative with stacks. On the other spectrum, there are seven teams with an IRT under 4.0, including Texas with a 2.86 IRT. This type of scoring could lead me to believe we will see some terrific pitching performances tonight.
- We are looking for the safest of SPs in these types of formats. Stick to any top three combinations (Corbin Burnes, Chris Bassitt, or Adam Wainwright). Except for Burnes, the other two have terrific matchups that play right into our hands. The Giants, Rangers, and Royals have IRT under 4.0, which is a great spot to find any SP, plus they are striking out a fair amount of the time. On either sportsbook site, I would stick to these because their teams are also the favorites to win.
Single Entry/ 3 MAX GPP
- All SPs are in play in these types of formats. However, grabbing two from the cash games tier might make your build a little too chalky. My suggestion, hold one SP from the cash tier(Burnes, Bassitt, and Wainright) then an upside play at a discount salary. The additional savings will allow you to get heavier on a stack elsewhere. The top DraftKings combination I would be targeting is Chris Bassitt and Germán Márquez. In these types of GPPs, you want to leave yourself some wiggle room for better bats while rostering SPs with higher upside.
Large Field GPP
- This is where things get a little weird because the contest size is anywhere from 5000-50,000 lineups. So, diversification in your build is essential. If you go chalky like Burnes/Bassitt, you’ll have to hit on a bunch of unknown low-roster% bats to pass the field. On the flip side, if you go too off-the-wall like Caleb Smith and Mike Minor, you could end up scoring very little if they don’t toss a gem. Let’s put it this way, the crazier the SP combination, the safer your stacks must be, and the safer your pitching, the crazier your stacks have to be.
There is so much suspect pitching on the slate; grabbing a few stacks with different outcomes should be helpful. Also, I narrowed down the matchup timeframes to 14 days since we recently had so much movement. Here are my top three stacks for GPPS.
- With Nick Castellanos back, the Reds lineup looks more dangerous than ever. Besides, leadoff hitter Jonathan India has been smashing, and Joey Votto is playing out of his mind. Against RHP, the Reds have six bats with an ISO better than .180 and a wOBA higher than .340-Winker, Votto, Castellanos, India, Naquin, and Shrock. Additionally, they’ve even got back-of-the-order thumpers like Aristides Aquino and Eugenio Suárez. Right, so we got a lot of power and a team walking 11% of the time in the last two weeks. This would be a terrific stack for single-entry and 3X Max GPPs. If you use them in large field GPPS, you need to get highly different in your SPs.
- Here is another team with an IRT well above 5.0 with a favorable pitching matchup. As Pollack would say, “never trust the feds,” and today is no different. Erick Fedde takes the mound in Atlanta, and it won’t be pretty for him. Additionally, if the Nationals pull him early, that bullpen has been depleted by trades. Furthermore, this is an Atlanta lineup that added plenty of power in the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. Again, much like the Reds, this feels like a lineup that will be heavier rostered because of the cheaper salaries and HR upside. Core stack players: Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, Adam Duvall, and Joc Pederson. Toss this stack in your best single-entry and 3X Max GPPs.
- Grabbing a stack in Camden can be fruitful in large slates. The porches are relatively short, and on warmer days, it won’t take too much of a shot to put one over the fences. What mainly draws me to the Orioles is the cheaper salaries and palatable IRT(4.34). Additionally, they are putting a ton of balls in play and not striking out, both aspects I look for when correlating a stack. Furthermore, they square off against Ryan Yarbrough, who has a minimal margin for error since he doesn’t strike out many batters. Core stack players: Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, and Anthony Santander. Also, if you’re looking for a one-off catcher play, Pedro Severino carries a .190 ISO and .370 wOBA vs. LHP.
Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the value hitters are players under $3300 on DK and under $3100 on FD—just a step below my cash players.
I took a page from my colleague Rich Holman’s (@RichardoPL83) book and provided my favorite cash lineup. When I target cash players, I try to stick with bats between $3000-$5000(on DK) and $2500-$4000(on FD). If there are outstanding missteps in salaries, we can go a little higher or lower, but the overall goal is to have a balanced lineup. For pitching, I rarely vary outside of my top 3-5 pitchers.
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)