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Bets of the Day — August 27

Ryan Amore highlights Friday's best bets around baseball.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Alternate Run Line

 

It’s been a rough few days for the Phillies. They find themselves in the middle of a three-game losing streak, dropping last night’s home opener to the lowly Diamondbacks. What’s more, they lost their first baseman Rhys Hoskins to abdominal surgery.

Nola day couldn’t come at a better time. Aaron Nola has been excellent overall, his 4.33 ERA seems inflated given his excellent 23.7% K-BB, 3.55 xERA, and .287 xwOBA allowed. He’ll be tasked with taming a Diamondbacks lineup that has produced just a .304 team wOBA, 24th. And they will most likely also be down by far their best hitter in Ketel Marte who left last night’s contest with right hip discomfort.

On the other side, the Phillies offense will get to take its hacks against Taylor Widener who has been the antithesis of his counterpart Nola, allowing a .351 xwOBA to opposing batters along with a bloated 11.6% walk rate. Behind him will be a D-Backs bullpen whose relievers have combined for a league-worst 1.54 WHIP, giving the Phillies a clear advantage on both sides of tonight’s game. 

Pick: PHI -2.5 (+125 DraftKings)

 

Blue Jays at Tigers Alternate Run Line

 

Steven Matz has been his usual fairly decent self with a 15.8% K-BB, .309 xwOBA allowed, and 4.09 xERA. So he should be good enough to contain the Tigers, who have had their moments offensively but are still overall just 21st with a .306 team wOBA.

But really, this is more about the run support I think he should get. Even without the force that is George Springer for a large part of the year, the Jays have still managed a team wOBA of .334, trailing only the Astros at .336. They’ll face Matt Manning, the Tigers’ big pitching prospect who has been, so far at least, all sorts of underwhelming with a K rate of just 12% along with an xwOBA allowed of .351 through 22 starts this year. Behind him will be a Tigers pen that hasn’t been too great either, their relievers combining for a WHIP of 1.48, third-worst behind only the D-Backs and Rockies, so you have to like the Jays’ chances at pulling away with a convincing victory. 

Pick: TOR -2.5 (+130 DraftKings) 

 

Chicago White Sox Total Runs

 

Now with Luis Robert and Eloy Jiménez back in the fold, I’m a big fan of this offense as they just have a ton of power top to bottom. Tonight’s opposition will be the Cubs’ righty Keegan Thompson, a rookie who has just made two starts in 44.2 IP. He’s struggled with control with a 12.4% walk rate along with a modest 22.8% K rate. Underneath his shimmering 2.42 ERA lies a specious xERA of 5.16 along with a pretty big between his wOBA allowed of .305 compared to a .343 xwOBA, suggesting that regression could be headed his way. Supported by a bullpen that jettisoned some of their best relievers at the trade deadline, you have to like the White Sox lineup tonight as they should be able to put up some crooked numbers in the run column against their cross-town rivals. 

Pick: Over 5.5 (+100 DraftKings) 

 

Ryan Amore Overall Record: 31-28-0

 

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Ryan Amore

Writer for PL, artist, DFS enthusiast, and occasional Yankee fan. Once won a GPP with Henderson Alvarez. A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club. Appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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