Sunday’s packed MLB schedule scatters 14 games throughout the day. Aside from a marquee duel between Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer, most squads are turning to the middle or bottom of their rotation. As a result, many matchups are opening with sizable run lines.
It could be a loud day for offenses, but that doesn’t necessarily mean bettors should pound the overs. Let’s look at a few games to identify some standout wager opportunities on FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nick Pivetta Strikeouts: O/U 5.5
Will Pivetta work deep enough into his second start to reach this lofty line? That’s the key because, for all his flaws, we know the volatile hurler can miss bats. Pivetta has posted a stellar 24.5% strikeout rate 9.58 K/9 over his career. Although he accrued four strikeouts over five innings in Monday’s 2021 debut against the Rays, another five frames should be enough to clear the over at Camden Yards.
Aside from the sizzling hot Cedric Mullins, Baltimore’s lineup has entered the season in a collective funk. As the season concludes its first full week, the Orioles are saddled with an MLB-worst 32.7% K rate and 70.1% contact rate. Pivetta has 17 strikeouts in three starts since rejoining the rotation late last year, so six punchouts in five innings is perfectly attainable. However, a tantalizing +182 line on FanDuel is the main motivator to chasing the over.
Pick: Over (+182 on FanDuel)
Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. Chicago Cubs): O/U 3.5 Runs
Pittsburgh’s offense finally displayed a pulse with a season-high eight runs in Saturday’s win over the Cubs. Even after that explosion, the Pirates have offered just 27 runs in eight games. They settled for three runs or fewer in five of them, so don’t expect the fireworks to last through the entire weekend.
Just because they figured out Zach Davies in their second meeting doesn’t mean they’ll also spoil Trevor Williams‘ coming-home party. The 28-year-old was stellar in his inaugural start, allowing two hits, walks, and runs apiece over six innings against the Brewers. He induced 10 ground balls and posted the highest CSW (38.8%) on a day in which Jacob deGrom also pitched.
April 5th CSW Leaders:
1. Williams: 38.8
2. deGrom: 36.4
3. De León: 35.8
4. Rogers: 35.1
5. Rodón: 34.7
6. May: 34.1
7. Matz: 34.1
8. Montgomery: 32.9
9. Morejon: 32.8
10. Brubaker: 31.7— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) April 6, 2021
Williams will look to become the next former Pirates pitcher to succeed elsewhere after walking the plank, and he’ll continue that journey at the pitcher-friendly PNC Park against MLB’s worst offense since the start of 2020. He’s not a power pitcher, but taking the over on 4.5 strikeouts (+102 on FanDuel) is also tempting.
Pick: Under (-108 on DraftKings, -110 on FanDuel)
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8 Runs
The Rockies are unsurprisingly struggling to generate offense away from Coors Field. After tallying 44 runs over a seven-game homestand, they mustered just four runs in two losses at San Francisco. This is par for the course, as no team posted a worse wOBA on the road in the last two years than Colorado.
Don’t expect a drastically different outcome Sunday. Although coming off a disastrous 2020, Anthony DeSclafani held the Padres to just one run in his Giants debut. Given his struggles against lefties, he’ll just have to navigate Charlie Blackmon and the red-hot Ryan McMahon, who owns a career .272 wOBA away from Coors despite crushing his MLB-best fifth home run yesterday.
Germán Márquez has had a strange start to 2021, allowing more walks (eight) than strikeouts (seven) in two outings. Yet both were at Coors, and there’s no doubting his abilities in a neutral environment. Since the beginning of 2018, the righty boasts a 3.08 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 251 innings on the road. During that timeframe, he relinquished a combined seven runs in four starts at San Francisco. As long as the bullpens cooperate, this matchup should hit the under for the third straight time at Oracle Park.
Pick: Under (-105 on FanDuel, -108 on DraftKings)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: Run Line
Making his first start since getting unceremoniously abandoned by the Braves last July, Mike Foltynewicz surrendered four runs (two homers) in four innings despite registering seven punchouts. Adrian Morejon also lasted just four frames when toeing the rubber Monday.
The bullpens, however, make all the difference in this interleague matchup.
San Diego’s relievers have permitted just four earned runs (eight total) this season with an MLB-leading 27.9% K-BB rate. Texas’ bullpen on the other hand, possesses a 5.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. It was a suspect unit before losing top closing candidates José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández to preseason elbow injuries. Now it’s likely to bury the Rangers to the bottom of the AL West standings.
While elite pitching has carried them to a 6-3 start, the Friars possess a potent lineup even without Fernando Tatís Jr. They finally showed it Saturday with help from a returning Trent Grisham, who homered in his second game off the IL. San Diego has obtained its last five victories by at least two runs, and Texas has gotten outscored by at least three runs in each of its five losses. This has the makings of another blowout if Morejon can merely hold his own for four frames. The odds are far better on FanDuel than DraftKings.
Pick: Padres -1.5 (+100 on FanDuel, -115 on DraftKings)
Andrew Gould Overall Record: 1-2
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)