My fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings are a defintive snapshot of what I’m thinking about the pitching landscape at that moment in time. While that snapshot remains published forever in the form of a top 100, it doesn’t mean that list fails to continue to evolve in my mind, even minutes later. I can’t even make a pick in a fantasy draft without thinking, “Crap, was that the totally wrong move?” So trying to put something definitive out there is a bit of a challenge.
It’s really important, in my opinion, to normalize (or re-normalize) changing our minds. After I released my Top 100 in February, I took to Twitter and got so much incredibly helpful feedback. There were points that I agreed with and points that I disagreed with. The largest takeaway was likely that my first iteration of this list was a bit too conservative in ways. For pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Zach Plesac, I overly weighted floor and didn’t take enough ceiling into account. Which I suppose makes sense considering how highly I elevated “floor” guys like Kyle Hendricks, Marco Gonzales, Dallas Keuchel, etc.
This new Top 100 takes into account innings limit, injuries and more-solidified rotations but, really, this new Top 100 is thanks in large part to those Twitter threads and other helpful articles I’ve read and conversations I’ve had.
As usual, I’m happy to explain my thinking and answer any and all questions both in the comments below or on Twitter (@alexfast8).
Photos Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)
Thanks for all your hard work! Could you please offer your reasoning to drop Carrasco so aggressively because of obvious elbow concerns versus Gray’s one position drop and his current and last season’s back issues.
Thanks in advance for your thoughts
Hey Barry! Great question. As of now, from what I’ve read, Gray is only slated to miss a week or so. At this point, with the info I have, I’d be surprised if he missed over a month. Due to that, and the fact that most pitchers will hit 180 as opposed to 200, I don’t think he’s someone I need to tank quite yet because I think 160-170 isn’t out of the question (yet!). With Carrasco, he won’t be back till May/June which means he’ll be coming back around the time that Thor does.
Just read that he blew his hammy out. Didn’t realize that until now. :(
Thanks Alex for doing this.
I thought E-Rod was trendng up. He is even getting the opening day start. What did I miss that he drops 18 spots?
Hey! Nothing alarming happening with him. I think I overvalued him a little bit too much in my first ranking so me taking into account more of his floor + other names becoming a bit more intriguing to me is where the fall comes from. I think when I think about E-Rod A) Im just grateful he’s ok and healthy B) there are still injury concerns C) there are IP concerns as he didn’t throw last year. A lack of IP + Injury concern makes any potential blow ups hurt all the more.
Good to hear. I’m still hoping he is my SP6 in drafts.
So… Are we going to have two “the list” columns this year, or is this just a preseason thing?
I’m just doing preseason. I’ll leave the regular season to the experts
Aaawww… no offense to Nick, but a couple “lists” a week, especially if one that came from you, would be quite welcome.
Great stuff as always. Wondering what your thoughts are on Carlos Rodon?
As a Sox fan, I’ve obviously watched his career closely as he was drafted with potentially one of the best strikeout sliders in the game and then transitioned to a “pitch to contact” type guy as he came back from injuries.
Do you see any upside for a guy whom scouts once called a “top 10 pitcher on the planet”? For what it’s worth, he’s been lighting up Spring Training.
Hey Connor! Thanks for the kind words. I definitely am keeping a close eye on Carlos Rodon as I was a sucker for that SL way back when. At this point though, I need to see more before I can take the leap and draft him in the top 100. The new pitching coach is exciting but there’s still so much floor there.
(Redraft) please pick one: Gonso, Peralta or Singer?