Adam vs Adam: 2018 Top 30 OFers to Own in Dynasty Leagues
(Graphic by Justin Paradis)
2018 End of the Season Positional Dynasty Rankings
The season may have ended, but dynasty and keeper league discussion never stops. Our colleague Brennen Gorman has been putting together an end of season position by position rankings for dynasty leagues which you can read more about in the table below.
|Top 25 Catchers||Top 60 Outfielders|
|Top 30 First Basemen||Top 90 Outfielders|
|Top 30 Second Basemen||Top 30 Starting Pitchers|
|Top 30 Shortstops||Top 60 Starting Pitchers|
|Top 30 Third Basemen||Top 90 Starting Pitchers|
|Top 30 Outfielders||Top 50 Relief Pitchers|
We are here to finish off the 2nd half of the rankings that are left, and we thought we’d do so in a creative way by bringing you all a new series called “Adam vs. Adam” in which we, both Adam Garland and Adam Lawler, each share our own rankings and debate back and forth in places that we differ. Let us know what you think of our rankings in the comments below, where are we right and where are we wrong? Let’s begin!
The Top 30 Outfielders
|1||Mike Trout||LAA||27||Mike Trout||LAA||27|
|2||Mookie Betts||BOS||26||Mookie Betts||BOS||26|
|3||Ronald Acuna||ATL||20||Ronald Acuna||ATL||20|
|4||Aaron Judge||NYY||26||Aaron Judge||NYY||26|
|5||Christian Yelich||MIL||27||Juan Soto||WSH||20|
|6||Juan Soto||WSH||20||Bryce Harper||FA||26|
|7||Bryce Harper||FA||26||Giancarlo Stanton||NYY||29|
|8||Andrew Benintendi||BOS||24||Christian Yelich||MIL||27|
|9||J.D. Martinez||BOS||31||Andrew Benintendi||BOS||24|
|10||Giancarlo Stanton||NYY||29||J.D. Martinez||BOS||31|
|11||Rhys Hoskins||PHI||25||Rhys Hoskins||PHI||25|
|12||George Springer||HOU||29||Charlie Blackmon||COL||32|
|13||Eloy Jimenez||CHW||22||Yasiel Puig||LAD||28|
|14||Victor Robles||WSH||21||Victor Robles||WSH||21|
|15||Charlie Blackmon||COL||32||Eloy Jimenez||CHI||22|
|16||Michael Conforto||NYM||25||George Springer||HOU||29|
|17||Starling Marte||PIT||30||Aaron Hicks||NYY||29|
|18||Lorenzo Cain||MIL||32||Kyle Schwarber||CHC||25|
|19||Mitch Haniger||SEA||27||Marcell Ozuna||STL||28|
|20||Aaron Hicks||NYY||29||Nicholas Castellanos||DET||26|
|21||Eddie Rosario||MIN||27||Michael Conforto||NYM||25|
|22||Kyle Tucker||HOU||21||Mitch Haniger||SEA||27|
|23||Nicholas Castellanos||DET||26||Tommy Pham||TB||30|
|24||Brandon Nimmo||NYM||25||A.J. Pollock||FA||31|
|25||Marcell Ozuna||STL||28||Lorenzo Cain||MIL||32|
|26||Justin Upton||LAA||31||Kyle Tucker||HOU||21|
|27||A.J. Pollock||FA||31||Brandon Nimmo||NYM||25|
|28||Gregory Polanco||PIT||27||Gregory Polanco||PIT||27|
|29||Jesse Winker||CIN||25||Jo Adell||LAA||19|
|30||Nomar Mazara||TEX||23||Ender Inciarte||ATL||28|
Thoughts from the Adam’s:
Q: Adam Lawler – With regards to Christian Yelich. Why should recency bias affect my rankings as a dynasty analyst as much as it appears to have affected your rankings?
A: Adam Garland – See I don’t think recency bias is a thing with Yelich, I think it’s simply a belief in the continued growth in Yelich’s game along with the ability to contribute across the board that has me excited about him short and long term. He has cut into his groundball rate 4 consecutive years now, and while he may have only posted a 23.5% flyball rate, he makes the most of that contact with a crazy 47.6% Hard Contact rate which ranked 7th best in the majors among qualified hitters, and he supported it with a 92.3 MPH avg exit velocity which was a top 15 mark in baseball. He barrels balls at such a high level as his barrels per PA mark ranked 16th. That ability to impact the ball, along with the shift from one of the worst hitting parks for lefties in Marlins park to one of the very best in Miller Park (COL is better overall but MIL is best for power) last year has me believing that the power growth is sustainable to a point. I’m not expecting 36 HRs again, but I think there’s 25 HR pop which along with a batted ball distribution that supports higher BAPIPs and therefore average, along with the aggressiveness on the basepaths of the Brewers, is a really strong 5 category performer for dynasty leagues. A .300 hitter with 25+ HRs and 20 SBs is worth that ranking and I think it’s a realistic expectation.
Q: Adam Garland – What are you doing ranking the often injured and highly inconsistent 29-year-old Giancarlo Stanton 7th, you really think he’s going to age well?
A: Adam Lawler – I’m glad you asked about the 2016 NL MVP. You know, the one who almost hit 60 home runs and 132 RBI? The one who’s “down year” consisted of 38 HR and 100 RBI while scoring 102 runs?
First, let’s dispel the notion he’s oft-injured. Fastballs hit him in the face and the wrist. These aren’t soft tissue injuries that linger. You heal and you move on. That’s exactly what he’s done in the last 2 years. Now, let’s address your ageism. Listen here you little millennial punk, he’s 29, not 36. If you’re worried about age, start reconsidering your ranking of a far less interesting and powerful George Springer. Now, granted the K rate is downright abysmal. It always has been. However, it’s not because of bat speed, it’s because he tries to murder the baseball. Next, you labeled Stanton as “highly inconsistent”. Say whatttt? Barring the errant fastball, you can write in pen, 35+ HR/100+ RBI/100+ R. At least for the next 5 years. How many outfielders can you say that about? Trout, Judge, and JD. The latter of which you ranked ahead of Stanton despite his being 2 years older than Stanton. In closing, is he 2016 Stanton? Probably not. But he’s not Josh Hamilton either.
Q: Adam Garland – Jesse Winker last year showed elite contact skills, he walked more than he struck out, he posted above-average quality of contact numbers, plus he hits enough flyballs to get to 25 HRs…do you even use analytics?
A: Adam Lawler – Nope. I use #manalytics. My gut tells me that (1) I shouldn’t have eaten that meatball sub so quickly and (2) Jesse Winker is a hit-for-contact, light power bat with no speed. I’ll grant you that he’s certainly more interesting in OBP leagues and for those ever-popular BB-K% leagues. However, his Steamer projection shows him at a 17 HR, 78 R, 69 RBI clip with a few stolen bags. So you’re trying to sell me on an OF that kinda helps you in average, but he’s not actively helping you in any other batting category? Whoop-a-dee-doo. Hard pass.
Q: Adam Garland: No doubt that the upside is high, but Jo Adell is still a teenager and raw at the plate evidenced by his below-average swinging-strike rates at all 3 levels of his minor league season last year. This seems like a case of disrespecting the proven commodities for a mystery box to me, what gives?
A: Adam Lawler – You’re right! He’s still a teenager. Which is exactly why I love him so. The Los Angeles Angels thought highly enough of him to promote him to AA as a teenager. A place where he was 5 years younger than most of the other players. Why was he promoted so aggressively? Oh, that’s right. Because he shredded the California league with a slash line of .290/.345/.546 which was good for a 135 wRC+. The kid is a physical specimen. His speed is legit. Scouts have him reaching first in less than 4.6 seconds. Reports have the sound of the ball off his bat reaching Ronald Acuna type decibels (read this as high exit velocity). Recognizing the age and approach, it should have been expected that he would struggle in his first go around, certainly not alarming. I will not be the least bit surprised when he comes back with a vengeance to start the 2019 campaign. Less surprising – and part of the reason why I ranked him as high as I did – would be a big league promotion in 2019 after he tears it up in AA and a brief stint in AAA. Mystery box? The only mystery to me is if he’ll wind up a star or superstar.