Trevor Rogers’ Neighborhood

Trevor Rogers @ NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 82 pitches.

While we were going nuts watching deGrom blaze 101 mph fastballs, Trevor Rogers was having a field day with the Mets on the other side, legit out-dueling the best pitcher in baseball for a Win, boasting a line of 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks. 19 Whiffs and a 41% CSW is exactly what you want, even earning a King Cole on just 82 pitches. The hype is real.

His already increased velocity went a touch farther, sitting 96 mph and hitting 98.2 like a stud, earning 10 whiffs and 49% CSW on just his fastballs. His slider earned strikes, his changeup got whiffs, and his command was on point. With the Marlins are hurting for innings at the moment with Elieser Hernandez and Sixto Sanchez nursing injuries, you can expect Rogers to be a strong #3 for some time, likely pushing him past 82 pitches in future starts. This is Rogers’ neighborhood now, get used to it.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Saturday:

 

Chris Archer vs NYY (ND) – 2.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 42 pitches.

Archer averaged 91.4 mph and was pulled forearm tightness. Yeaaaaah, poor guy. We all wanted this to work.

Adrian Houser @ STL (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 81 pitches.

Despite a 2.00 WHIP and only three strikeouts, Houser slithered out of constant jams to leave with one unearned run and a goose egg for your ERA. I’m not sold his fastball is suddenly fixed and he can return to his late 2019 self, but he does get the Pirates next. I think you want that.

Chi Chi Gonzalez @ SF (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 80 pitches.

Look at Chi Chi go. He had a start outside of Coors, in lovely Oracle Park, against a meh lineup, and succeeded. Fine, with just one strikeout (HAISTFMFWT?!) but now you’re just being greedy. No, do not hold on to this.

Mitch Keller vs CHC (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 80 pitches.

Well there he is! After having little feel in his first start, Keller cruised in this one, getting whiffs on his four-seamer, outs with sliders, and called strikes with curveballs. It’s completely night-and-day looking at each game. Here’s his first start’s plot – now compare it to yesterday’s. Look at that glorious BSB! He’s sitting 95 mph with two strong breakers and it’s time to get a touch of post-hype. There is some sadness, though – he gets the Padres next. Uggggh. I wouldn’t start him there, but I hope to see the same skills present.

Jacob deGrom vs MIA (L) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 14 Ks – 27 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 95 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. That’s a Gallows Pole, which it feels like deGrom should win in every start. 14 strikeouts matched his career-high and the only blemish was an excellent 0-2 heater at 100 mph above the zone that Jazz Chisolm somehow launched to the right-field seats. You can’t predict baseball.

Aaron Civale vs DET (W) – 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 90 pitches.

Atta boy Civale! If there’s one thing to love about Cleveland, it’s their affinity for allowing their arms to go deep and he nearly made it through eight strong. Don’t worry about the low CSW here, it wasn’t a high ball rate but a high BIP % that returned outs. I still want to see a little more from his slider/cutter/changeup, but we’re in a good place right now.

Steven Matz vs LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 90 pitches.

The Matz hype train is slowing down a bit as he earned just 5 whiffs in this one, but his changeup is coming into form and that’s a solid thing. I’d be holding for Kanas City next but I have a feeling it’s a drop for Boston after. It’s not overwhelming dominance that would suggest otherwise.

Frankie Montas @ HOU (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 100 pitches.

Ayyyyy I was worried about this one as the Astros are swinging the bats well and Montas wasn’t in rhythm during his first outing…and he wasn’t pristine here, either. Sure, his fastball was excellent at getting strikes (75% strike rate!), but his slider was pretty meh and his splitter, despite going 3/9 whiffs, wasn’t consistent enough. Still, this is encouraging and quells our fears a bit, especially with Detroit up next. Phew.

Riley Smith vs CIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 82 pitches.

Don’t think about this much, he’s a Cup of Schmo and I hope that changes if he can do more with his heater or changeup. It’s just not enough right now to think he can keep that ERA low.

Michael Pineda vs SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 75 pitches.

He just can’t be stopped. Well, if you give Pineda a tough opponent, maybe, but he continues to feast on a welcome schedule, even with a 90 mph fastball. Now the big question comes – do you start him against Boston? I’d have fun with it and start, but the man earned just five whiffs – 1/20 on sliders! – and that has all the warning signs of a blow-up. Here’s to hoping he’s the sweet end of the Cherry Bomb he is.

Yusei Kikuchi @ MIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 94 pitches.

Mmmmm you love to see it. It wasn’t the same Kikuchi as his last start as his cutter + slider returned just 25% CSW, but his fastball held its 94/95 mph velocity and did enough to get through this. Here’s to hoping he pitches a little better against the Astros next week.

Garrett Richards @ BAL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 79 pitches.

It’s not the best rebound we’ve seen, but it’s five frames and solid ratios. I’ll take it, Richards, even if it was the Orioles. Your slider is still rough, though, and there’s no way I’m rostering you for Minnesota + ChiSox next.

Jordan Lyles vs SD (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 78 pitches.

It’s still slider time for Lyles, and I’m a touched impressed that it’s working as his curveball takes a major backseat. Yes, yes, one strikeout, HAISTFMFWT?!, but now he gets the Orioles and there’s a deep streamer for you. I don’t love it, but it’s something.

Julio Urias vs WSH (W) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.

Blegh. save for the Win, there isn’t much helping you on your squads. At least he went 95 pitches, though, suggesting he’ll go six-strong more often than not. Like the goggles, this start does nothing.

Jeff Hoffman @ ARI (L) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 82 pitches.

Blegh. I was hoping for a sneaky stream against the Diamondbacks, but Hoffman didn’t have a breaker he trusted, electing to throw 63% fastballs at 19% CSW. That’s not it. I hope he can be Jeff Honman in the near future.

Bruce Zimmermann vs BOS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.

It wasn’t as glorious of a BSB as in his first start, but Zim pulled it off for his second PQS against the Sawx. Now he gets Seattle and Miami and suddenly I’m thinking we have ourselves a super sneaky streamer. Sign, me, up…?

Chris Paddack @ TEX (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 71 pitches.

Nope, we’re not there yet. Fastballs were poorly commanded as he failed to live in the top third of the zone – that’s Paddack’s M.O. – while his changeup wasn’t its best self, either. Still worried, but it’s the Pirates next and he’s got time. Good luck Paddack, we’re all counting on you.

Logan Webb vs COL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 92 pitches.

Ugggh Webb, come on man. This is Rockie Road! You’re not supposed to have a 2.00 WHIP and need 92 pitches to get 15 outs. Be better. His changeup wasn’t anything close to the pitch we dreamed of – 15% CSW! – and his slider did the heavy lifting. It is good to see the slide piece step up when needed, but yeah, it’s not the path we want. I think I still start him against Miami, but like getting a question wrong in trivia, you’re on thin ice, Logan.

Carlos Martinez vs MIL (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 83 pitches.

Ugggggh. I felt good about this one as CarMart sat 94 mph in his first start and this…wasn’t that at 92.4 mph. Just six whiffs in total as his slider + changeup went 1/26 and I’m sad. Streaming Record: 4-6. I’m shocked at Martinez’s ability to get 15 outs and strike out just one batter. HAISTFMFWT?! He gets the Phils next and I’m ready to move on to something else.

Jose Urquidy vs OAK (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 93 pitches.

I know the 4 ER are a stain, but seven Ks, a 1.17 WHIP, and 32% CSW should make you feel good about this. The Mariners are next and that’ll be better – especially when he’s gone over 90 pitches in each start.

Ian Anderson vs PHI (ND) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 89 pitches.

Whoa, Anderson, you’re not supposed to allow 4 ER, didn’t you get the memo? It’s the same old with him, though, as his changeup gets whiffs (not enough here, though) and curveballs for called strikes. His four-seamer wasn’t pristine and it didn’t work out here. Everything’s fine.

Zach Eflin @ ATL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 77 pitches.

Aaaaannnnd that’s what happens when the curveball isn’t there. Seriously, just six thrown in this one after 19% usage last time out. At least we now know – he’s a Cherry Bomb alright and plan accordingly. It’s the Mets + Giants next and it feels less relevant than most. Will he have the curveball or not? I don’t know.

Domingo German @ TB (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 79 pitches.

Blegh. His curveball was still great, but the fastball command wasn’t and he failed to produce for the second straight start. Now the Yanks are going four-man for at least one turn and they elected to demote German to add another reliever. Do you hold through it? It really depends on your situation. He’ll be off The List tomorrow because dems the rules but when he returns, he’s back inside the Top 70. I think the skills are there, it just hasn’t come together quite yet.

Jose Quintana @ TOR (L) – 1.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 61 pitches.

Bleeggggggh. Quintana is looking rough to start the year and now gets the Twins. No thanks, even if 4/5 outs were Ks.

Tarik Skubal @ CLE (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 75 pitches.

Oh no. Skubs had a lovely start outline for him and he finally went sub 50% fastballs…and it was terrible. I’m thinking he went sub 50% heaters because they were simply not working well and he needed to adjust. In good news, the slider did some work with a 38% CSW, but it was simply because Cleveland became reticent to swing at the slower offering. We knew there was work to be done this season and you can expect more bumps in the road like this one. Does it mean a drop? I wouldn’t say so with the whiff-heavy A’s and ragged Pirates up next – it’ll be a pendulum through the year for Skubal – but yeah, brace yourself for the Cherry Bomb.

Patrick Corbin @ LAD (L) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 80 pitches.

Okay, so this line is terrible…but I’m actually encouraged? He had a rough third frame with five runs that you can put on the board (No!) and was solid otherwise. His fastball was 90/91 mph, not 89/90 mph, and he went 6/23 whiffs on sliders for 43% CSW. Don’t get me wrong, it’s incredibly annoying given that I pushed Corbin a lot this preseason, but it’s his first start and I expect plenty better against Arizona next weekend.

Zach Davies @ PIT (L) – 1.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 44 pitches.

Yikes. The fear with Davies is when he doesn’t get the results we want from his changeup, it goes downhill fast. The pitch was a bit too hittable here and…yeah. Even against the Pirates. Now with Atlanta and the Mets next, I’m leaning sit. It’s been a long Vargas Rule and the wall may have been hit.

Game of the Day 

 

Clayton Kershaw vs. Max Scherzer – Yes, Brent Honeywell is starting, but it’ll likely be just a few frames and these are two studs of a generation!

 

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

 

Photo from Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)