While there have been some bumps along the road (like last night), Adam Ottavino’s first year in Boston has gone as well as we could have hoped for following his 2020 season. Even at age 35, Ottavino has been able to increase his fastball velocity this year to 94.8, the highest average he’s had since 2015 while his slider continues to do its thing. Last year’s bad luck could be chalked up to Ottavino allowing (uncharacteristically) a ton of hard contact which led to an extreme BABIP (.375). This year, he’s back to being one of the better hard contact suppressors in the league, with 2% Barrel and 24.2% HardHit rates while having an average exit velocity of just 84.1 MPH, all ranking in the 98th percentile or higher. Ottavino remains one of the steadier contributors at the RP position and a true set-and-forget asset for your fantasy teams.
Notes
- What a brutal two-day stretch it has been for Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen, who allowed seven earned runs while getting just three outs. All three outs came via a strikeout at least, but he allowed seven hits and four walks in between. He wasn’t having the smoothest July to begin with, so this latest series against the Giants is certainly a bit concerning. Walks continue to be a problem, with his command all over the place in his latest outing. Once elite level closers, Jansen, Edwin Díaz, and Aroldis Chapman just haven’t been the same since the new sticky stuff rules were implemented. We knew it would take these guys some time to adjust; let’s just hope that adjustment period doesn’t last much longer.
- I still don’t have complete faith in Mark Melancon and I believe the Padres should look for a quality reliever at the deadline but 29 saves is 29 saves and you can’t knock that. Since May began, he has had a 4.7% K-BB rate, 1.48 WHIP, 5.16 FIP, 4.58 SIERA—and yet just a 2.79 ERA and leads the league in saves. There’s always one closer every year who defies logic and reason and is at the top of the leaderboard for saves, and this year it just so happens to be Melancon.
- Although, Melancon does have some competition in Lou Trivino, who has a 1.91 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the year despite a high walk rate (11.6%), low Whiff rate (22%), and 4.43 xFIP. He has been using his sinker more often, leading to a career-high 48% GB rate, but there still seems to be plenty of luck involved here. Just like with San Diego, I think the Athletics need to go out and get some insurance at the deadline in case regression comes for Trivino in August/September.
- Speaking of trades, this could very well be the last week for Daniel Bard, Richard Rodríguez, Ian Kennedy, and Yimi García as closers. It’s certainly possible that they wind up in situations where they close for their new team, but more likely than not these four will wind up in setup or middle relief roles elsewhere. Not that Kennedy is even closing out games currently, as the Rangers have only allowed him one save opportunity for the entire month of July.
- There are a couple of players I left on the list despite being on the IL currently. Devin Williams is expecting a minimal stay on the IL and could return this weekend. Jimmy Nelson could return this weekend as well after throwing live BP yesterday. Jonathan Loáisiga, returning from a Covid positive should be back this weekend for the Yankees. Michael Fulmer has begun a rehab assignment in AAA Toledo and should be on track to return next week. Brooks Raley is also on a rehab assignment at the AAA level and should return to the Astros bullpen this weekend or early next week.
- Gregory Soto and Blake Treinen each had four SV+HLD’s this past week. Soto looks to be running away with the Tigers’ closer gig, as he now has five saves over the past 16 days, although it hasn’t always been pretty (5.14 ERA, 1.57 WHIP in July). Treinen continues to be the only sturdy, dependable reliever in that Dodgers bullpen for the time being.
| PITCHER | TIER | INJURY (EST. RETURN) |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Anderson | 2/3 | Elbow (August) |
| Tejay Antone | 3/4 | Forearm (August) |
| Lucas Sims | 3/4 | Elbow (August) |
| Julian Merryweather | 4/5 | Oblique (August) |
| J.P. Feyereisen | 4/5 | Shoulder (August) |
| Corey Knebel | 4/5 | Triceps (August) |
| Art Warren | 6/7 | Oblique (late August) |
| Tanner Rainey | 6/7 | Leg (August) |
| Pedro Baez | 6/7 | Shoulder (August) |
| Ryan Thompson | 6/7 | Shoulder (early August) |
| Sam Howard | 6/7 | Oblique (August) |
| Michael Lorenzen | 6/7 | Hamstring (August) |
Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
No mention of José Cisnero? He has been very good in Net Save + Holds league.