Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch weekday mornings from 9 am-11 am ET.
Martín Pérez vs KC (W) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 106 pitches.
Look, I know there were a lot of interesting starts today and Martín Pérez is so far down on the list of the guys you actually thought would get the lead today, BUT THIS IS IMPORTANT. After three starts of one earned run combined, Pérez went 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 106 pitches against the Royals and has officially reached “Vargas Rule” territory. He’s spotting sinkers incredibly well as he’s upped their usage, pushing it even further today with 40% usage and 10/42 whiffs. That’s a lotta whiffs. Sure is, as they came in over a tick harder today.
Yeaaaah it’s kinda interesting, right? And you were all distracted with Detmers and Verlander and some young arms struggling. Now, he does get the Angels next and that is incredibly risky, but I can’t help but wonder whether Pérez is in such a rhythm that it doesn’t matter. Those in deeper leagues should be awfully curious, while those in 12-teamers, feel free to wait one more to avoid the Angels but keep your eye on the velocity and command. If this sinker is still fantastic, it could be Kyle Gibson’s 2021 first half all over again.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Justin Verlander @ MIN (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Verlander flirted with a no-hitter of his own in this one and it’s getting awfully hard to not get thrilled about rostering him. Sure, he doesn’t come with the same whiffs as before — just 3/44 on his heater and four on his slider — and yes, that’ll lead to some regression by summertime, but he’s still a legit SP #2/3 for the year and that’s awfully good.
Tarik Skubal @ OAK (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 92 pitches.
Atta boy Skubs! Just six curves thrown (33% strikes, yikes) but the slider did its job while the four-seamer was well commanded around the edges. I think the 0 ER is a little surprising and fortunate, but he still pitched well enough and gave himself the chance to get lucky. There’s still a little bit of work left to do and we’ll keep starting him as he develops.
Reid Detmers vs TB (W) – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 108 pitches.
This is absolutely bonkers. That marks two straight years of sheer luck that a streaming pick returned a no-hitter (thanks Turnbull!) and Detmers did so while earning the lowest “Minimalist Score” I’ve ever seen at TWO. Insane. What’s even crazier is that I’m not in on Detmers despite this game. WHAT?! Yeaaaah. I know. The thing I’ve been looking for are whiffs on the slider and he went 0/10 on the pitch in this one. His curveball is still a great pitch and it’ll at least keep him in games as the fastball at 92 mph is a solid-but-not-elite pitch + sometimes the changeup will be a factor like it was in this one. But without that legit out-of-the-zone pitch in the slider, Detmers will have to rely on BABIP like he did here and that’s a tough roll of the dice. I mean, let’s be honest, returning a no-hitter with just two strikeouts is ridiculous luck. “HAISTBMBWT?!”
Adrian Martinez @ DET (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 79 pitches.
I watched a good amount of this one and while Martinez throws a hard sinker, it wasn’t commanded incredibly well and his slider was a bit of a mess despite its 40%+ CSW (just 50% strikes!). The changeup had fantastic shape, though, and was his most consistent offering here that I absolutely dig. Sadly, the command is too questionable for me to consider this if he gets another start. Way too volatile.
Patrick Corbin vs NYM (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 86 pitches.
He had a handful of slider whiffs and some wonderful pitch separation in this one. These last two outings aren’t enough to jump back in yet, but small steps y’all. Small steps.
Tony Gonsolin @ PIT (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 84 pitches.
Yep, that absolutely works, even with the four walks. It’s not the overwhelming start you’d want from Gonsolin in an outing with the Pirates — three whiffs is maddening to say the least as he went 0/13 CSW on sliders. ZERO. He’s lucky to get the Diamondbacks next but man, he’s not making me feel super great about rostering him.
Alex Wood vs COL (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 104 pitches.
Hmmmmm. It’s a touch of a “Dusty Donut” with that horrid WHIP (“Singled Out” a bit) and just four strikeouts, and I’m honestly surprised to see it with Wood sitting 93 mph and featuring a strong slider. I’m surprised to see his ratios sit so unfavorably at this point in the year and if that makes him a “buy low” I’m buying everywhere I can. It’s 2021 but with a better fastball.
Lucas Giolito vs CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. It’s the Giolito you know and that’s a wonderful thing.
Freddy Peralta @ CIN (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 96 pitches.
He struggled in his first two starts and has since spun four straight of 5+ innings and just 5 ER total. The slider and fastball crushed together like the good ole days and you have to feel good starting Peralta regularly now. Let’s hope the AGA label is around the corner.
Kyle Bradish @ STL (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 90 pitches.
WELL OKAY THEN BRADISH. I liked his debut, made him the streamer last week and he had a horrendous fourth inning with a super hittable fastball that made me scared. Welp, his slider showed its final form with 44% CSW and 9/32 whiffs, which amplified a heater that already sat a tick higher at 95/96 mph. It led to a “King Cole” and it’s so easy to be stoked about this. So he warrants a pickup, right? Well, I don’t expect the slider to be this well located moving forward and he did feature a ton of heaters heavily over the plate, making his next start against the Yankees a bit of a tough call. It’s wonderful to see the ceiling come to life in front of you, but it feels like the best start we’ll see from him all year. I’d say pick him up and take the chance — if he fails, he fails. If he succeeds, well, you’ve got yourself a lovely Bradish stew right there.
Carlos Carrasco @ WSH (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 83 pitches.
HA. Carrasco’s slider has been impressing me lately and in this one…he went 1/10 CSW on it with just 40% strikes. You can thank his heater for suddenly sitting 94 mph (!), a full tick harder than expected and higher than previous year averages. Wild. I still haven’t seen that start where everything is clicking, but instead of outings carrying a weak link, it’s more of one of his pitches showing up in a big way and carrying him to the finish line. Positivity! While I still have my concerns whether his success will last through the year, you obviously aren’t dropping Carrasco any time soon. I so wish he never gives you a reason to.
Robbie Ray vs PHI (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 104 pitches.
Whoaaaa. That “Gallows Pole” came from Ray shifting gears to 54% slider usage, which returned a 27% SwStr rate on the day. His pitch separation was incredible — just look at this with four-seamers up and sliders down — and while the fastball was still a tick down from 2021, this outing was the first start that made me feel like I was watching prime Ray once again. If this command sticks, he’s Top 10 once again even at 93/94 mph. Get hyped.
Yusei Kikuchi @ NYY (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 89 pitches.
That marks two straight starts of excellence for Kikuchi, both against the Yankees. He was still sub 95 mph with the heater, but it didn’t matter as the pitched soared to a 38% CSW, while the new slider was good but a bit inconsistent. Not much else to report (the changeup was pretty dang poor) and I think this is a bit of a trap. Chase something else.
Hunter Greene vs MIL (L) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 100 pitches.
I guess that’s surviving…? His slider bailed him out a ton here as he sat 98.4 mph on four-seamers and I still don’t trust him. That fastball is still far too hittable — just 2/47 whiffs in this one.
Alex Faedo vs OAK (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 83 pitches.
I watched this game and while I wasn’t too impressed with Faedo’s heater at 93 mph, his slider was filthy. 10/26 whiffs here and made lives horrendous for Oakland right-handers. It makes you wonder whether he can do it a second time against the Rays (they were just no-hit!) but I think I’d avoid since the fastball is destined to get hit around a bit. Not the worst deep play in AL-Only leagues, though — having a pitch earn 10 whiffs in a game is a rarity.
Aaron Nola @ SEA (ND) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 99 pitches.
Some bad luck and a poor changeup return a start like this from Nola. Man, we just can’t get into a secure groove with Nola, can we? Keep starting him as it should turn around in his favor over time.
Madison Bumgarner vs MIA (W) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.
Bumgarner is at 91 mph, making him a proper “Toby”. He got the Marlins, warranting your trust in the lineup for the day. Now it’s the Dodgers and that trust has been severed. HYYYAAAH! GET OUT OF HERE TRUST, YOU’RE NOT WELCOME ANYMORE.
Luis Severino vs TOR (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 97 pitches.
After allowing 3 ER in the first two frames, Severino settled in for a strong few frames after and I’m generally buying that he’ll help a lot more than hurt the rest of the year. I know, you’re getting a bit antsy after his last three outings of mediocrity, but keep the faith. The fastball is at 96 mph, his changeup and slider are each earning strikes and whiffs, and he pitches for a winning club. It’ll come.
Mike Clevinger vs CHC (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 91 pitches.
So I was a little worried about Clevinger after his debut sitting 93.5 mph without any feel for his breakers and those fears were nearly quelled here — he sat 94.4 mph (close and better!) while his slider was legit filthy at 8/30 whiffs. There’s still some polish around the edges, but I’m feeling better after this one. Essentially, I just didn’t want to see the same for a second straight start and this is a wonderful indication that Clevinger has a chance to return to his previous self now. There’s still a little bit of work left, but these are the steps we want to see.
Packy Naughton vs BAL (L) – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 57 pitches.
Whoa, Packy is backy! Why are you so excited about this. Because he has an 80-grade name. Too bad his stuff doesn’t follow suit at all.
Garrett Whitlock @ ATL (ND) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 82 pitches.
Well this sure wasn’t what I was hoping for. Whitlock gave us his best self last time and swung the pendulum the other way as if he’s on the second date and telling us far too much too quickly. Look, I understand you’re into this and want to jump in quickly, but we gotta play this the right way, Garrett. Be smart about it, you can’t expect me to accept all of you so quickly! Annnnywaaay I still really dig his sinker and I think we’ll see better command from the slider and changeup moving forward. It’s rough to see Houston next on the docket, though. Good luck with that choice, at least he’s over 80 pitches now.
Wade Miley @ SD (ND) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 64 pitches.
Hey, welcome back Miley! It was a very clear “Still ILL” and I’ll have my eye on Miley moving forward to see if we have a great moment to swoop in for a stream. Absolutely not now, though.
Frankie Montas vs DET (L) – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 105 pitches.
Blegh. That’s another rough outing for Montas as he didn’t have his splitter on point with just 2/24 whiffs. It makes for three poor outings and four excellent games and I hate how much Montas is becoming a “Cherry Bomb”. Get into the rhythm we all know you have in you. Please.
Cal Quantrill @ CWS (L) – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 98 pitches.
Going 6+ frames without a walk is what makes Quantrill a “Toby”, but the 10 hits and 4 ER display why he doesn’t need to necessarily be on your teams.
Joe Ryan vs HOU (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 90 pitches.
Uggggh. The slider was incredibly hittable and honestly, that was the biggest deal as he couldn’t rely on it when he lost his fastball in counts. I don’t expect that to stick around so don’t worry about this one. Like the eraser on your page after a typo, just brush it off.
Jesús Luzardo @ ARI (L) – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 78 pitches.
Bleeeeggggh. Here’s a stat I’m not loving: Luzardo has earned double-digit whiffs on his curveball in two starts this year. In the other four? He hasn’t had more than three. That inconsistency with his hook isn’t a death sentence for his ratios — he’s kept it together for the most part! — but it does make me a little concerned. THAT SAID, his changeup went 10/30 whiffs in this one and that isn’t something to ignore. So hey, maybe the slow ball is better and negates the volatility in the curveball. We’ll see how he responds.
Brad Keller @ TEX (L) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 94 pitches.
Womp womp. Is Keller a “Cherry Bomb”? I guess so? There isn’t much to report here except those 17 whiffs are still dang impressive: 9 via sliders, 7 via fastballs. He threw too many hittable pitches and WAM BAM THANK YOU PHAM. Now he gets the White Sox and I guess that’s a coin flip again.
Antonio Senzatela @ SF (L) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 86 pitches.
Oh Senz-A, sometimes this world makes sense.
Kyle Wright vs BOS (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.
Noooooooooooo. Our fears came to light against the “struggling” Sawx as Wright tossed far too many hittable pitches and didn’t get away with it this time. The good news is that I don’t think it was a start that warranted four walks and I can see him making a few tweaks to get back on track against the mediocre Padres next time out. I really hope we see it.
Bryse Wilson vs LAD (L) – 2.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 70 pitches.
Bryse, there’s so much else to talk about today, I’m sorry I can’t be the friend you need today. Wait, don’t leave. Wilson. WILSON. WIIILLLSSSSSSOOON!
Corey Kluber @ LAA (L) – 3.0 IP, 8 ER, 11 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 64 pitches.
Womp womp. The velocity was back to being sub 89 mph, the breaker failed to earn a single whiff, and the Angels had their way. And now he gets the Jays?! Yeah, I don’t see a reason to hold onto Kluber in your 12-teamer — there are other “Toby”s if you need one across the next 10 days.
Game of the Day
Shane McClanahan vs. Shohei Ohtani – If you don’t want to watch this game, I don’t know why you read these articles.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 9:00 am – 11:00 am ET Monday through Friday.
Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
As a Reds fan struggling to find things to be positive about, does Hunter Green’s fastball just not have enough spin rate? ….or the delivery makes it too easy to track? I guess what I’m really asking is do you think he’s likely to fix it anytime soon?