The List 9/13: Ranking The Top 150 SP ROS Based On Expected Schedules

The Top 150 Starting Pitchers based on Expected ROS Schedule.

What is happening!

It’s that time of the year where we shift from the traditional Top 100 ranking of The List to a stupid long article outlining every single expected Starting Pitcher start and ranking them all together in one smattering that kinda makes sense and should help your team.

It’s the second week we’re doing this (and final as next week turns into individual Sit/Start tables for the final 14 days) and I hope it helps.

Yeah, it’s a lot to take in, but it’s what I think is the most helpful way of talking about the final three weeks of the season and it’s what you see before you.

First thing’s first, I want to thank James Schiano for creating the offensive hitter tiers below and creating the individual team tables. I then went in, added notes to each team, then created a table of nearly 160 pitchers and ranking them + added highlights to great and terrible schedules at the very bottom.

These schedules are going to change. Heck, the daily streaming pitchers article I write often changes and that’s published just hours before game time. Use this article as a guide to understand the flow of rotations and move the respective pitchers around as needed.

Alright, I hope you enjoy this giant piece. Don’t forget to hang out on Twitch next week and hang out with me as I craft it next Monday from 12-4 EST.

 

Let’s begin with James’ offensive tiers:

James’ Offensive Tiers

Now let’s jump to the expected schedules for each team. Please note:

(OFF) means the team was off the day before
(DH) means that those games are part of a double-header

 

Arizona Diamondbacks

 

Diamondbacks Expected Schedule

Keep in mind, Merrill Kelly could return this week from the COVID-IL, displacing Luke Weaver or Humberto Castellanosthough the only Arizona matchups we care for are their final weekend series against Rockie RoadLet’s hope Kelly can snag one of those.

 

 

Atlanta

 

Atlanta’s Expected Schedule

There’s a chance Drew Smyly pushes his way back into the rotation, or h*ck, maybe Kyle Muller demands one more start before the end of the year. If it’s not a direct replacement of Touki, there could be some value there against the Diamondbacks at home, but otherwise I’d generally avoid either potential replacement.

 

 

Baltimore Orioles

 

Orioles Expected Schedule

This will likely shift around a decent amount with some young names getting chances, but let’s be honest. It doesn’t really matter. Sorry. At least John Means gets the Phillies and Rangers and that should help your squads.

 

 

Boston Red Sox

 

Red Sox Expected Schedule

It’s unclear when Chris Sale returns to the Red Sox rotation, and it could shift the expected matchups. The only series to consider avoiding for some is against the Yankees, so it could help Tanner Houck or Eduardo Rodriguez + hurt Nick Pivetta if they get shifted in/out of that three-game set.

 

 

Chicago Cubs

 

Cubs Expected Schedule

It looks like Adrian Sampson is getting some time in this rotation, with Adbert Alzolay pitching out of the pen and the Cubs moving on from Keegan ThompsonMaybe we see some Cory Abott? It’s not much to consider. As for the regular crew, the Cubs have a light schedule and don’t get affected much if they tussle arround.

 

 

Chicago White Sox

 

White Sox Expected Schedule

As of now, Reynaldo López is still in the ChiSox rotation, but there’s a chance this six-man turns into five with the big three of Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynnand Carlos Ródon all healthy and pitching again.

 

Cincinnati Reds

 

Reds Expected Schedule

This is pretty dang straightforward the rest of the way, though there may be a Hunter Greene sighting at some point (especially if Vladimir Gutiérrez struggles). Otherwise, the Reds are fighting for the second wild card and could feel great with their rotation to not fix what isn’t broken.

 

 

Cleveland

 

Cleveland’s Expected Schedule

I wonder how this one will shape up through the final weeks. It’s a six-man with Logan Allen and Eli Morgan in contention for a possible five-man squeeze. There’s also a possible return of Shane Bieber to consider and it’s unclear if we’ll see him before the long winter.

 

Colorado Rockies

 

Rockies Expected Schedule

The top four are clear to coast the rest of the way, while Ryan Feltner could be swapped out with any other young arm the Rockies see fit.

 

 

Detroit Tigers

 

Tigers Expected Schedule

The Tigers are a bit weird with Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal each being limited to roughly 50 pitches in their starts. It does mean guys like José Ureña and Drew Hutchison could see some extra time as followers – or even start a game or two.

 

 

Houston Astros

 

Astros Expected Schedule

It’s a six-man rotation with Cristian Javier still getting innings out of the pen. We may see that change if Houston wants to hold back Luis Garcia or Lance McCullers as they push career-high marks in innings. Their lovely schedule does shift in the final week of the season, but a jostle of the rotation doesn’t change the expected production a whole lot.

 

 

Kansas City Royals

 

Royals Expected Schedule

With a six-man rotation + Brad Keller on the COVID-IL, there are a decent amount of mouths to feed down the stretch. Expect this one to change a decent amount in the next few weeks. I’d imagine one of Kris Bubic or Jackson Kowar are the ones to get ousted if Keller were to force his way back.

 

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

 

Angels Expected Schedule

It’s technically a six-man rotation if Reid Detmers makes his return from the COVID-IL, though it’s a major rough patch in the short term for the crew. Monitor these arms for the final ten days of the year – José Suarez, Jaime Barria, Alex Cobband the aforementioned Detmers could all produce against the Mariners and Texas.

 

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

 

Dodgers Expected Schedule

With Clayton Kershaw and Tony Gonsolin back from injury, the Dodgers’ rotation should remain seated for the rest of the season.

 

 

Miami Marlins

 

Marlins Expected Schedule

There’s hope that we’ll see Pablo López make a return before October and it could turn this into a six-man rotation or a simple removal of Edward CabreraThe other four should be set for the final three weeks.

 

 

Milwaukee Brewers

 

Brewers Expected Schedule

Here we have an interesting situation. The Brewers are running away with the Central as Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes push career highs in innings. It’s possible they both get a breather, allowing Aaron Ashby to get a start, or make way for a possible return for Brett Anderson

 

 

Minnesota Twins

 

Twins Expected Schedule

 

This is a five-man rotation save for the Cleveland doubleheader tomorrow and I’d be surprised if Andrew Albers forced his way in over any of the five above.

New York Mets

 

Mets Expected Schedule

Hey y’all. I know what you’re thinking. Please tell me Jacob deGrom is going to start again this year. You know he’s not. There are three weeks left. He’d need at least one rehab start to get back and he’d have to do that ASAP to get back in time to start…and he wouldn’t be stretched out. It just makes no sense. Let it go. (I really hope he does make that start, though)

Anyway, as far as their rotation goes, it’s straightforward with what you see above. If something were to go wrong, Trevor Williams gets the empty spot and Noah Syndergaard should be expected for nada. I’m so curious to see what happens in free agency.

 

New York Yankees

 

Yankees Expected Schedule

With Jameson Taillon dealing with an ankle injury and no clear timeline for his return, we may see the above five toughing it out through the end. There could be a hint of Clarke Schmidt or even a return of Domingo Germán at some point, but if I were a better man, it’s this quintet the rest of the way.

 

 

Oakland Athletics

 

Athletics Expected Schedule

The only interruption we’ll see here is the potential return of Chris Bassittwho may make a start or two in the final weeks. I’d expect him to displace Paul Blackburnwhich will be more than welcome given his final two starts come against Houston.

 

 

Philadelphia Phillies

 

Phillies Expected Schedule

With Zach Eflin out for the year and some of the 2022 season, it’s unclear who will carry the fifth rotation spot for the Phils. Expect some movement there, with some Matt Mooresome bullpen games, and other arms you want to avoid like an empty subway car. There’s a reason why it’s empty.

 

 

Pittsburgh Pirates

 

Pirates Expected Schedule

JT Brubaker – aka Coffee Cakes – sits on the IL with a shoulder injury and could earn a start or two by the end, pushing Dillon Peters out of the way. There’s also Steven Brault on the IL, who could make a late return as well, pushing out Max KranickYes, this means Bryse Wilson, Wil Croweand Mitch Keller are safe.

 

 

San Diego Padres

 

Padres Expected Schedule

With Blake Snell leaving his Sunday start with a groin injury, I’d expect him to hit the IL and miss some time, marking a path for Ryan Weathers or Reiss Knehr to get some innings. And who knows, maybe we’ll finally get an MLB look at MacKenzie GoreDon’t hold your breath.

 

 

San Francisco Giants

 

Giants Expected Schedule

The Giants are missing both Johnny Cueto and Alex Wood at the moment, the latter sitting out due to COVID and could return next week for his pass in the rotation. In the meantime, we have Dominic Leone and likely a bullpen or Scott Kazmir taking the reins for a moment.

 

 

Seattle Mariners

 

Mariners Expected Schedule

Yup. That’s the rotation for the Mariners down the stretch. I don’t see a whole shifting unless Justin Dunn is able to step forward enough in his rehab starts to make an appearance before the end.

 

St. Louis Cardinals

 

Cardinals Expected Schedule

I wouldn’t anticipate Jack Flaherty returning to the rotation before season’s end, though there is a chance he pitches in relief instead of taking the normal rehab route. Meanwhile, Jake Woodford has taken Kwang Hyun Kim’s spot in the rotation and we’ll likely see these five until the end.

 

 

Tampa Bay Rays

 

Rays Expected Schedule

The Rays rotation is a major question mark, with Shane McClanahan and Luis Patiño as the main names to focus on (Shane should return on Sunday + Chris Archer just hit the IL before publication. We’ll see how this shapes up). They could have some bullpen games or even give Shane Baz a look at the majors, but not a whole lot of relevance given their difficult schedule save for Miami and Detroit.

 

 

Texas Rangers

 

Rangers Expected Schedule

There isn’t much interest here, even if some of these names shift around in the final weeks (A.J. Alexy, Mike Foltynewiczand Dane Dunning could all make starts). The matchups are poor and I’d come back to see who gets the starts in the final week – Glenn Otto could be a sneaky play against the Angels then.

 

Toronto Blue Jays

 

Blue Jays Expected Schedule

I don’t see much movement here with their doubleheaders out of the way. The next up would be Ross Striplingbut it would take an injury for him to get innings and I wouldn’t trust a start from him against these teams.

 

 

Washington Nationals

 

Nationals Expected Schedule

It’s not the most exciting group, but four are set with Sean Nolin taking the current #5 spot. We could see some Josh Rogers in there as Nolin undergoes his suspension for throwing at Freddie Freemanbut that’s of little consequence for your fantasy squads.

 

The List Based on ROS Schedules

 

Phew. With all the team schedules outlined above (HUGE thanks to James Schiano for putting the tables together! Give him a follow on Twitter), I went forward and made a GIANT table featuring every starter listed above, ranking them in six different tiers to get a sense of who to target and avoid down the stretch.

Before we get to that, I need to address a few things:

  • This is stupid hard and I’m so sorry. Please forgive me for this atrocity below.
  • It’s incredibly difficult to weigh # of expected starts vs. expected performance vs. opponent faced vs. the actual ability of the pitcher. There’s plenty of room for interpretation here.
  • I elected to go the Tier route, where the individual ranking doesn’t matter nearly as much as the tier they reside in.
    • I also know y’all love number ranks, so I added that column too. I got you, just realize it’s a loose ranking inside the tiers.
  • Let me outline the definitions of each tier:
    • Auto-Start: You’re pretty much starting them for each outing they have ahead of them, regardless of opponent. Maybe one or two considerations, but you’re likely still starting them.
    • Likely Start: You trust them against weak teams and there may be one or two games that give you some hesitation, or they have a great schedule but their ability is somewhat in question, unlike the fantastic guys in the top tier.
    • Questionable: These are going to be guys with a heavy swing of good and poor matchups, mixed with pitchers whose abilities we inherently question
    • Unlikely: These pitchers have maybe one or two starts we’d consider them for as a stream, but overall are unlikely to go on a solid stretch through September.
    • Do Not Start: It’s certainly possible they pull off a good outing here and there, but you really don’t want to bet on it.
    • DO NOT: For real, don’t start these guys.
  • These matchups are likely to change plenty between now and the end of the season and take the time to look into who maybe shift around and who may not (e.g. The Yankees rotation)
  • Again, please don’t hate me, this took forever.

 

Alright, let’s get to it. Here’s the giant table containing The List: The Top 150 Starting Pitchers Based on Expected ROS Schedule.

 

Nick’s Ridiculous and Totally Wrong ROS Rankings

 

Great Schedules (at least three great matchups)

 

Bad Schedules (at least three poor matchups)

 

Photos by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire and Dirk DBQ (https://www.flickr.com/people/dirkhansen/) | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former pitching coach and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

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