The List 7/26: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 18

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2021 - Week 18.

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 18 starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.

As always, make sure to read the notes as many changes have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

  • Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
  • Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

  1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
  2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
  3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
  4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
  5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00 pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

  • This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
  • Seriously. Read the notes.

 

  • I’m not exactly sure what to make of the top tier at the moment. It just all feels so…off. There’s no ultra dominance of Shane Bieber, Chris Sale, Jacob deGromor Justin Verlanderwe don’t have a stupid incredible stretch like the ole Gerrit Coleand even the ole reliables like Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer have their issues, like Darvish failing to excel against the Marlins and Scherzer dealing with an injury to preserve his health for the trade deadline. It’s weird.
  • So weird that I’ve elected to put Zack Wheeler and Brandon Woodruff at #2 and #3 this week. Gasp. They’re both constantly going deep into games and piling up the strikeouts and feel like true workhorses aces, unlike the others. Woodruff has a touch of innings concern given the “100 inning slap” the Brewers are giving to all their starters, apparently, but it’s unclear if they’ll actually implement that in September.

 

  • I gave a drop to Kevin Gausman down to #11 as he’s had a rough pair of starts. He was previously put on personal leave and returned the day of his first outing and didn’t get back in rhythm in time for his weekend outing. I’m wagering he’ll get back to business shortly, but it may take another start.
  • It may be weird to see a single AGA label in the second tier, but given how the Brewers have expressed their desire to limit Corbin Burnes‘ innings, I felt it was important to separate the two parties. I wouldn’t make any moves if I rostered him – he’s going to help in a major way until he hits that threshold, whatever it is – but I can’t ignore the inevitability that he’ll pitch fewer frames than those in tier one.

 

  • We have three major jumps in tier three this week. Our featured player Luis Castillo rises nine spots as he’s dominated with four-seamers as his changeup and slider have stepped up over the last month. He’s looking like the man we drafted after all this time and while I expected it to appear in May, I’m here with a hug.
  • One major surprise is the ascension of Sean Manaeawho has given me no choice but to place him inside the Top 15 after earning yet another Golden Goal over the weekend against the Mariners. He was sitting 90/91 mph in April and has been 92/93 mph over the last two months, returning ridiculous results. His SwStr is suddenly 14% and boasts a 21% K-BB% rate. It’s unreal.

 

  • Jumping eight spots is Shohei Ohtani who has turned it on since the start of June with a 30% K rate and sub 7% walk rate across seven starts. Things are clicking and here’s to a smooth ride to the end for the clear AL MVP (sorry Vlad).
  • Take note: Joe Musgrove’s bump is more about players shifting around him, not my belief in his recent changes. I still want him to throw 30%+ fastballs, not sub 20%. His secondaries need his velocity to stand out more.

 

  • I had to shake things up a bit in Tier 3 this week, leading with Frankie Montaswho has finally found himself over the past few weeks. His splitter and slider have propelled his success, locating as well as I’ve ever seen him. He’s often known for a solid floor and paired with a phenomenal ceiling turns Montas into a fantastic arm.
  • I gave some love to Luis Garcia this week as well, despite my concerns that he’ll get shut down by the Astros at some point across the next two months. His slider and cutter have performed incredibly well and while I’m still skeptical his fastball can keep up its success, Garcia is making managers thrilled.

 

  • I couldn’t be happier to see Alex Wood have his slider back in elite form while he sits 92 mph on his fastball. Start him until something changes.
  • And of course, we have to talk about The Panada himself, Patrick SandovalHis 37% CSW on both his changeup and slider is simply unheard of and his 94/95 mph fastball has been good enough to support his secondaries. Throw in a curveball he earns called strikes on over 1/3 of the time and you have a complete pitcher. My only worry is if the fastball command wobbles a bit through the final months. Stay strong, Panada.

 

  • We’re getting shorter tiers as we hit #30 as Yusei Kikuchi takes the top spot in Tier 4. I was worried about his declining velocity in his previous two outings, but he showed up with a 95/96 mph heater and a changeup that returned twelve whiffs out of nowhere. Seeing the extra tool in his arsenal + the rediscovered heater makes me buy back in.
  • It’s no secret Kenta Maeda has performed better across the last few weeks though it’s not quite the return to form that we’re seeing from Luis CastilloI’m cautiously optimistic he can continue on his current path and rise with each edition of The List.

 

  • Tier 5 is where it starts to get a bit weird. Zac Gallen and John Means have not been exciting since their returns from the IL and are making some managers want to cut bait. I wouldn’t do that – just give them another start or two – as their ability far exceeds what you’ll likely find on the wire. It’s a rough spell, not a death sentence.
  • It’s still crazy to look at, but James Kaprielian has a 2.65 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 26% strikeout rate across 12 starts this year. I don’t quite believe he’s that caliber of a pitcher with mostly just a four-seamer and slider (his changeup is a bit inconsistent for my tastes) that aren’t the most exceptional I’ve seen, but hey, the man is producing and deserves our love.

 

  • Tier 6 comes with more questions. I don’t believe Sonny Gray will have a worse start all year than his 8 ER disaster, but how soon will he recover? I believe he’s still very much worth your roster spot on the ceiling alone and to get into a groove since his IL stint, but I definitely understand if you’d rather have the safety of Nathan Eovaldi or Wade Miley instead.
  • The same goes for Zach Plesacwho has done little to inspire confidence since his return from the IL, but I believe he’ll find the rhythm you’re looking for shortly.

 

  • We’re in Tier 7 now and the cliff has yet to hit. Many stable arms can be found here, from the likes of Zack Greinke and Kyle Hendricks going six frames constantly, or the surprises of Kwang Hyun Kim and Wade Mileythe former even earning seven strikeouts in two of his last three games.
  • At the top are Jon Gray and Nathan Eovalditwo pitchers I didn’t expect to have a top 50 spot this season. Gray should be out of Colorado this week and is pitching as well as ever with an elite slider and his hardest fastball of the season. Eovaldi has become comfortable with his secondaries and has become a stable arm for many 12-teamer managers, though I wonder how long it will last.

 

  • Look at Tier 7. Now look at Tier 8. Now back at me. Now back at Tier 8. Those are the pitchers who want to be Tier 7 and higher but are going through some things. Taijuan Walker hasn’t fanned more than five since June 15th, even if I don’t believe his last two starts are an indication of poor ratios to come. Logan Gilbert’s slider was marvelous until his last outing and I worry he’ll be more volatile than we’d like. And boy I hope Marcus Stroman’s slider from his last start can stick around for a long time.
  • Hyun Jin Ryu and Kyle Gibson saw massive dips as our confidence is waning thin. Ryu’s changeup came back for one outing…then disappeared against the Mets as our anxiety worsened. Gibson had two starts combing for 13 ER against the Tigers before he walked eight batters over the weekend. I’m not sure we need much more evidence that this carriage is turning into a pumpkin, but I understand if managers want to take one more chance on finding that magic this week.

 

  • Finally, we’ve made it to Tier 9, the most wonderful tier of them all. Here you’ll find the meadow of upside, sprouting at the end of July and hopefully surviving the summer nights. Trust your gut when deciding which arms you want to pick here and I have no qualms with anyone who wants Touki Toussaint over Adbert Alzolay (I don’t trust Touki’s fastball command & I loved seeing Alzolay dominate with a new cutter + his excellent slider!). Just take your pick(s) here and let’s all hope for the best.
  • This is the place I elected to slot Freddy Peralta as he was limited to sub 60 pitches last time out. I have no idea what the plan is for Peralta the rest of the way – maybe he’s limited for a few weeks, then built up again as the Brewers head to the playoffs. Maybe it’s one start of rest before a full start, then another half start. It’s a massive shrug and up to you if you want to deal with this HIPSTER.

 

  • Tier 10 is like Tier 9, but with lower ceilings. The Yankee trio of Jordan Montgomery, Domingo Germánand Jameson Taillon each have their own pros and cons (Monty = ceiling, Germán = a balance of the two, Taillon = floor).
  • I’m incredibly intrigued by Daniel Lynchwho coasted for eight innings against the Tigers over the weekend. He favored four-seamers inside to right-handers effectively with a breaker for strikes and changeup that looked elite at times. There’s a lot of potential here over the last two months as he’s a different arm than we saw in June. Keep an eye on him…just after the Jays start ahead.

 

  • In Tier 11, Alex Cobb sits at #71 as his splitter has been as good as ever + he’s gotten comfortable tossing curveballs for free strikes. There’s some upside to play with as we’ve hit the cliff – the land where you should be ready to drop these players for upside or streamers.
  • Dallas Keuchel has performed at his season’s peak over his last two starts and could continue the trend next time out. He’s worth your eye if his name value hasn’t kept him off the wire.

 

  • There’s been a lot of talk about Josiah Gray as of late and while I was stoked to see him earn 19 whiffs in fewer than 80 pitches, I worry about his fastball command + his time inside the Dodgers rotation – they’ll likely get at least one starter at the deadline, booting Josiah from his spot. I love his potential for 2022 and beyond, but it may be tough to keep him rostered past his next outing.
  • I wonder what we’ll see from Luis Patiño as the Rays are leaning on him to make starts down the stretch. His slider is fantastic and may propel him into Tier 9 or higher in little time.

 

  • Tier 12 is a large one, but has a lot of the regular names you’d expect as possible streamers and desperate back-end starters. I can’t help but have a sense of wonder about Patrick Corbin still, who sat 94 mph in his last outing. Maybe, just maybe, this can be a thing again.
  • Joe Ross returns to The List after getting sidelined with an elbow injury. He came out of nowhere during the season, even earning himself a Golden Goalbut typically with injuries, pitchers take a step back and need some time before they return to their former selves. Let’s hope Ross gets back there as soon as his first start back.

 

  • Austin Gomber and Ryan Weathers also made their return from injury and deserved a spot this week. Gomber produced a PQS but did it hovering a 50% fastball rate – far from the ~30% levels we got excited about in June. Monitor this.
  • As for Weathers, I’m not sold he carries overwhelming upside to force a roster spot, but the Padres are letting him ride a decently high pitch count, providing decent ratio value in leagues.

 

  • It’s still a Vargas Rule for many with Chris Flexenbut I just can’t see this panning out as he earned one strikeout last time out and is a clear TEEs in my book. I’m avoiding the inevitable disaster ahead.
  • We’ve considered Cole Irvin Toby through the season and nothing innately has changed. I was hoping for Irvin to take a step forward in breaking free from the label in his recent start against the Mariners, but it just wasn’t in the cards. This is his home.

 

  • In the final tier, we have our rag-tag group of possible arms on a given day. That includes Ross Striplingwho gets a major dip despite having success over the weekend against the Mets. My faith in Stripling is reinforced when his secondaries complement his heater in starts. Sadly, we’ve only seen them play a major role once in the past two months and I don’t buy consistent success coming his way until then.
  • I can’t help but wonder if Caleb Smith will travel quickly up The List in the final ten weeks of the year. His slider has been excellent over his last two starts and I’m waiting for either his changeup to match the breaker or his heater to comfortably sit 92+ mph. He’s not there yet, but he’s awfully close.

 

  • Joining The List this week are Marco Gonzales, Matt Manning, Taylor Widenerand Wil CroweThe first two have a clear Toby label while Widener has an interesting slider/changeup while sitting 93/94 mph on his fastball. There could be something there that could blossom with more starts.
  • As for Crowe, he’s had his slider and changeup working twice within his last four starts and I can’t help but raise an eyebrow at it. No, you shouldn’t pick him up now, but who knows. Maybe he gets consistency with both of them as they complement the 94 mph heater with delight.

 

Fringe Pitchers I Considered

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

RankPitcherBadgesChange
1Gerrit ColeT1
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
2Zack Wheeler
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+2
3Brandon Woodruff
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
+2
4Yu Darvish
Aces Gonna Ace
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-2
5Max Scherzer
Aces Gonna Ace
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-2
6Lance Lynn
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
7Lucas Giolito
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
8Carlos Rodón
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+1
9Walker Buehler
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
+1
10Robbie Ray
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+1
11Kevin Gausman
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-3
12Corbin Burnes
T2
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
-
13Luis Castillo
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
+9
14Sean Manaea
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Ratio Focused
+6
15Lance McCullers Jr.
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
-
16Sandy Alcantara
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
17Aaron Nola
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
18Julio Urías
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
-
19Charlie Morton
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
20Shohei Ohtani
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
+8
21Joe Musgrove
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
+4
22Max Fried
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Quality Starts
Ratio Focused
-1
23Frankie Montas
T3
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Cherry Bomb
+13
24Luis García
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
+19
25Alex Wood
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
+19
26Patrick Sandoval
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
+24
27Shane McClanahan
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
+5
28José Berríos
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Cherry Bomb
+12
29Tyler Mahle
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-3
30Yusei Kikuchi
T4
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+9
31Kenta Maeda
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
+10
32Chris Bassitt
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Ratio Focused
-3
33Germán Márquez
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Cherry Bomb
-2
34Framber Valdez
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+4
35Zac Gallen
T5
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Stash Option
-11
36John Means
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Stash Option
-13
37Anthony DeSclafani
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
-2
38James Kaprielian
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Toby
Streaming Option
+18
39Adam Wainwright
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Cherry Bomb
+7
40Dylan Cease
T6
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+5
41Sonny Gray
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Stash Option
-14
42Tarik Skubal
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Playing Time Question
-
43Zach Plesac
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Stash Option
-9
44Jon Gray
T7
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
+4
45Nathan Eovaldi
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
+8
46Zack Greinke
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Ratio Focused
+5
47Wade Miley
Injury Risk
Toby
Ratio Focused
+7
48Kwang Hyun Kim
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
+7
49Kyle Hendricks
Quality Starts
Ratio Focused
+3
50Taijuan Walker
T8
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-13
51Logan Gilbert
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Streaming Option
-2
52Hyun Jin Ryu
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-19
53Kyle Gibson
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Stash Option
-23
54Marcus Stroman
Quality Starts
Toby
Ratio Focused
+3
55Eduardo Rodriguez
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Cherry Bomb
+3
56Tanner Houck
T9
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Stash Option
+8
57Adbert Alzolay
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
+2
58Kyle Muller
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Stash Option
+3
59Triston McKenzie
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
+6
60Touki Toussaint
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Stash Option
+40
61Logan Webb
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Streaming Option
+1
62Tylor Megill
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
+7
63Freddy Peralta
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Playing Time Question
Stash Option
-49
64Blake Snell
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Cherry Bomb
Stash Option
+4
65Jordan Montgomery
T10
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
Ratio Focused
+9
66Domingo Germán
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
+7
67Jameson Taillon
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Streaming Option
+5
68David Price
Low Ips
Playing Time Question
Stash Option
-2
69Daniel Lynch
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Streaming Option
+UR
70Zach Thompson
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
-7
71Alex Cobb
T11
Streaming Option
+4
72Dallas Keuchel
Quality Starts
Toby
Ratio Focused
+15
73Tony Gonsolin
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
-13
74Josiah Gray
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Playing Time Question
Streaming Option
Stash Option
+UR
75Jake Odorizzi
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
-8
76Madison Bumgarner
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
Toby
Streaming Option
-5
77Luis Patiño
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
+UR
78Patrick Corbin
T12
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Stash Option
+1
79Steven Matz
Injury Risk
Cherry Bomb
Toby
+4
80Andrew Heaney
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
-
81Nick Pivetta
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
-4
82Michael Pineda
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
+2
83Chris Paddack
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Playing Time Question
Stash Option
-2
84Joe Ross
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
+UR
85JT Brubaker
Toby
Ratio Focused
-
86Cole Irvin
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
-8
87Austin Gomber
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
+UR
88Merrill Kelly
Cherry Bomb
Toby
Streaming Option
-2
89Ryan Weathers
Low Ips
Playing Time Question
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
+UR
90Chris Flexen
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
-14
91Chad Kuhl
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
+4
92Johnny Cueto
T13
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
-4
93Tyler Anderson
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
-2
94Ryan Yarbrough
Playing Time Question
Toby
Ratio Focused
-2
95Ross Stripling
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
-13
96Marco Gonzales
Toby
Ratio Focused
+UR
97Caleb Smith
Streaming Option
-3
98Matt Manning
Playing Time Question
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
+UR
99Taylor Widener
Playing Time Question
Streaming Option
+UR
100Wil Crowe
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Cherry Bomb
Stash Option
+UR

Labels Legend

Aces Gonna Ace
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Low IPS
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
Stash Option

Photo by Carlos Herrera/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

8 responses to “The List 7/26: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 18”

  1. E. says:

    Hi Nick,

    I really appreciate your work here. You often uncover gems that I would never have looked at before you noted something unique about their repertoire. In this year alone, your advice helped me find Patrick Sandoval and Shane McClanahan.

    However, one thing I’ve noticed that often appears inconsistent is how this website deal with workloads and limited pitch counts. For example, earlier in the year, I cut Lamet because there were concerns he would not be stretched out. Instead, he increased his pitch count to 70+ in the following start and immediately became viable. Obviously this website was right about underlying health concerns because here we are with Lamet back on the IL. However, I’m curious about how this website is handling Peralta, Woodruff, and Burnes. All three have had no more than about 100 IP for the past several years and all three have passed or come near their previous professional highs. Given that the Brewers mentioned they would use “tandem” starts to aid recovery among their pitchers and Peralta is not going to get a tandem start this week, shouldn’t we be concerned about Woodruff and Burnes. In other words, if Woodruff or Burnes has a 60 pitch start would they also plummet to the low 60s or upper 50s? Maybe there is less concern because they are older and didn’t have a start skipped but I feel like placing Peralta just above streamers is confusing if Burnes and Woodruff are in the top 12. I also believe Burnes and Woodruff are better than Peralta but I feel like a Peralta for Burnes trade in fantasy is much more fair than Peralta for any of the guys near him (e.g. Logan Webb or Tylor Megill).

    Again thanks for your work, just wanted to hear your thoughts!

    • DB says:

      The thing w/ the Brewers guys is that the org basically said early on “we’ll let them do what they did last year + 100 innings.”

      There’s a HUGE difference between Peralta’s 29 last season and he’s already got 102 this season (max 85 in his career;) Burnes – 59 last, 102 now, 59 max career; and Woody – 73 last, 126 now, 121 max career…

      There’s also some nuance looking into how they’ve been handled since making that statement and injury history, e.g. Woodruff has been allowed to pretty much run wild except for his very first outing, Peralta’s had injury issues and (seemingly) an increasingly reduced innings limit recently, and Burnes seemed like he was limited ~6 early but has been given a long leash over the last month or so.

      If I had a guy that’s obviously being capped (RIGHT NOW,) that the team said would be capped at ~130 innings, and he’s already thrown 102 innings, I’d be looking to sell high ASAP because they’re not going to turn him into a high-leverage ‘pen arm – not because he couldn’t do that effectively, but because they’ve got high-leverage ‘pen arms coming out their nose already.

      I personally believe they kept Burnes capped early so they could use him more down the stretch, and Woody’s just Woody… They’re just going to keep throwing him out there, with maybe a 6 inning cap in Sept, at least as long as they continue to be in the thick of the NL central race. They’ve got the pen that can reduce the workload if either Burnes or Woody start showing signs of fatigue, but I wouldn’t bet on them getting piggy-backed very often, just from a recent-usage standpoint. I’d see it more w/ Burnes than Woody.

      • ANon says:

        Peralta threw 120 innings in 2017 and 140 innings in 2018 between various levels of the minors and majors. This whole innings cap things is so ridiculously bogus and I wish teams would stop it. It has been studied to death and there simply is nothing to it.

        • DB says:

          Care to link to the studies or articles that state the results of those studies? I have a hard time believing that a guy that only pitched 30 innings the year before would continue to be healthy going 100 innings more than that the next year on a regular basis. He’s already spent time on the IL, right? I don’t have the data to back that up, but I’m not the one claiming to.

          Even if I did, I’m not the one making the call for the Brewers nor the one making statements to the press for them. If it truly isn’t truly backed up by data, it wouldn’t be the first time a team decided to back off using a pitcher for whatever reason. There’s a reason why “Dodgeritis” is an accepted term in fantasy, after all.

  2. Kyle says:

    Did Jose Suarez get any consideration for the list? His fastball kinda sucks, he still struggles with location, and he’s on a pitch count, but his changeup has a 18% SwStr and near-40% chase rate, and the curveball has really improved with a lot of called strikes and a 70% groundball rate.

  3. Jason says:

    Hi Nick,
    I echo everything E. said above. Your work and detail is great. I go to your site constantly and it is a go to for me. But the Peralta ranking is in my mind the strangest ranking I have ever seen on your lists. If you had Freddy Peralta, would you truly trade him for Tylor Megill? Muller? Touki? I mean it would be really interesting to hear that one explained more because that one is wild to me. It seems like a panic move when that is the last thing a fantasy owner should be doing is panic with a pitcher who pitched like a complete and utter ace for more than half a year.

    Thanks for your work and I think many would love to hear more on this topic.

  4. John says:

    The Freddy ranking is absolutely bonkers as Counsell (before this list was even published was interviewed on video and in print) about his last outing and he made it crystal clear this was a one time event and that Freddy would be back to his normal work load next outing. All of this was easy to find on the Internet and could have and should have been found in seconds with a quick search.

    • The Realist says:

      Yep. The Freddy ranking is misleading and absolutely insane. Lol like you said, a simple Twitter search or Google search reveals that it was a one-time thing. Dropping him 49 spots is the most criminal, weird, wacky and bizarre thing I’ve ever seen on this site and the Internet in general since it has existed.

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