The List 7/17: The Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2020 — 60 Game Edition

Once we got word of a season plan, I updated The List back on June 23rd knowing there would be lot of changes before the start of the season. I had planned to put this out on Monday, but with draft weekend ahead of us, I wanted to get a proper update out for everyone’s drafts. As always, read the notes before looking at the ranks, they explain a lot.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is the final update of The List until Monday July 27th when baseball has actually returned. BASEBALL IS BACK IN ONE WEEK. WHAT.
• For those initiated, a Toby is a middling pitcher who is borderline a waiver wire arm. A Cherry Bomb is a volatile arm who is either super sweet or blows up in your face.

 

• Take note that the re-introduction of Carlos Carrasco (I’m so happy you’re okay!) at #22 gives many an innate “-1” to their rank…until Jesus Luzardo, David Price, Michael Kopech, Jose Urquidy, and Eduardo Rodriguez’s removals that push the back-half up and give them an innate “+5”. This is your obligatory “READ THE NOTES” before reacting to the small “+2” or “-1” rank changes.
• I also removed many players who simply didn’t have the early schedule you’d want for someone on the fringe anyway. You’re going to see plenty of green and double-digit increases in the back-half of The List because of this, but don’t get too alarmed. Most are just “hey, not a terrible first start and they could do fine” kind of players.

 

• During PitchCon, I sat down with injury specialist Stephen Lyman, where we discussed many players with injury questions and how to properly put weights on them. There are a number of players who have injury concerns that I’m not as worried about relative to others. (Watch our hour-long talk here):
  • I’m placing Mike Clevinger ahead of Shane Bieber, as we shouldn’t be worried about his knee at all given the large time off to properly heal. I like Clev dog. You should too.
  • Charlie Morton often gets hurt by the longevity of the season and a season a third in length will do wonders for his overall performance. He was a true ace last year and gets a well-deserved bump.
  • I was giving Blake Snell a heavy drop before, given the injury cloud already circling, but given it was loose bodies that were removed and should be fully healed, I’m in on Snell rebounding from an odd year where he lost the feel for his curveball and slider in the zone. That should come back.
  • Griffin Canning’s PRP injections should come with concern, though he may get the Mariners first and I’m in for that.

 

• One of the major changes from 162 games to 60 games is my emphasis on volume from Day 1. I’m personally favoring pitchers who I believe have the ceiling to go at least six frames from their very first start of the season, as each individual start matters more than ever. I’m calling those SP “Ego Starters” as they won’t let managers baby them early or pull them when they are performing well. It’s not always directed to their personality, but more that I trust they will go deep early in the year. These players include Lance Lynn, Madison Bumgarner, Carlos Carrasco, Zack Greinke, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Frankie Montas, Mike Minor, and Trevor Bauer. 
• The other side of the coin are pitchers who we know are limited right away. Walker Buehler is scheduled for two – just two! – innings Friday night, forcing me to push him down in favor of pitchers who will get more volume this season. It feels very strange to do so, but a week or two into the season, you’ll be happy having 18 frames of Luis Castillo more than Buehler’s nine.

 

• Yes, despite being a Gallen Gal, I’ve lowered Zac Gallen. I can’t say with conviction that he’ll be given the same leash as those mentioned above and it saddens me that I need to push him down because of it. Not to mention, there is the innate risk of putting too much stock into his expected development. Still love him, just have to favor the floors of others more.
• You may find it weird to see Tyler Glasnow this far down. Given the short sample size of 2019, his COVID illness that delayed his start of camp, and lack of third pitch, I think you’re better off chasing other arms instead that have the full package ready for opening day.

 

• I have no idea what to do with Zack Wheeler. I love the guy but I think he has all the reason to properly opt-out of the season as he has a child on the way. It’s a huge risk to grab him at this point and I’ve pushed him much farther than I’d like because of it.
• I really think many are overlooking Shohei Ohtani. I know I’ve talked about volume, but there’s a difference between production per start vs. production over the full year. Shohei has the ability of a Top 15 starter and you want his ability on your team.

 

• I dropped Julio Urias down as I wonder if the Dodgers are going to use their pitching depth to prevent him from going a full six frames each game.
• I love Mike Foltynewicz but sadly the Braves have admitted that they are taking things slow with their starters this year. I had to bring down both him and Mike Soroka because of this.

 

• With David Price opting out, some are chasing Ross Stripling and Dustin May. I’m not, but I’ll add them as things could change quickly. I expect the Dodgers to still carry Dodgeritis, preventing Stripling or May to get significant innings for a while. It hurts, I know.
• I’m wondering how to feel about Jordan Montgomery. On one hand, if he has increased velocity, he’ll be on a winning club and given opportunities. On the other, he gets the Phillies and Red Sox out of the gate. He takes a hit because of the innate risk there. Blegh.

 

• I’m so sorry John Means, but you have a tough schedule to start the year. It’s not fair.
• The same goes for Dallas Keuchel, though I’m certainly less emotional there. An early matchup with the Twins means you’re unlikely to be happy early, but Keuchel should be a solid Toby through the year on a winning ballclub.

 

• With Yonny Chirinos still missing from Summer Camp, Brendan McKay could slide into the Rays’ rotation. I wouldn’t expect him to get the volume early, but you should keep an eye on him.
• I considered removing Michael Fulmer and Chad Kuhl as they’ll be “piggy-back” starters initially, but I think their upside makes them worthwhile at the end considering the other options are pitchers you don’t want to stream to start the year. If they do well in their first start, their limitations could be removed.

 

• I have many concerns that neither Corbin Burnes nor Freddy Peralta will get the innings we want them to get in Milwaukee, but their upside is certainly worthy of a Top 100 spot. Monitor this situation carefully.
• With Michael Kopech opting out, Carlos Rodon has a chance to earn innings inside the White Sox rotation again. He deserves a look, but who knows what quality those hypothetical innings would be.

 

• Okay, okay, I added Nate Pearson, Spencer Howard, and MacKenzie Gore to The List. I understand that each of the teams could easily add them to their rosters after the first turn of the rotation and could make an impact right away. I prefer Pearson the most of the crew, but remember, you’re likely better off using that spot for a stream that the first week – you need every solid start you can get!
• Sadly I had to lower Dylan Bundy as he’s likely to face the Athletics and Astros out of the gate. I’m curious as to what we’ll see from him in 2020, but you want to watch from the sidelines.

 

• And let’s talk about the pitchers I’ve added that could have a favorable start in their first start of the year that should be considered at the end of your draft:
  • Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez get the Orioles
  • Dakota Hudson may get the Pirates. Monitor this one as Carlos Martinez could be in the rotation and push Hudson to #4…where he gets the Twins. Not good.
  • Griffin Canning could get the Mariners if he’s the #4 or #5
  • Alex Wood is likely slated against the Giants
  • AJ Puk may be hosting the Rockies in O.Co
  • Asher Wojciechowski would get the Marlins if he’s the #4 or #5
  • Pablo Lopez would get the Orioles
  • Joey Lucchesi is slotted to go against the Giants
  • Jake Arrieta could face the Marlins
  • I’m worried about Austin Voth and Anibal Sanchez facing off against the hot/cold Blue Jays in their first starts, but it’s the best out there as they squeak inside the Top 100.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

Rank	Pitcher	Team	Badges	Change
1	Gerrit ColeT1	NYY	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Jacob deGrom	TEX	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
3	Max Scherzer	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Justin Verlander	DET	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
5	Mike Clevinger T2	PIT	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
6	Shane Bieber	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
7	Charlie Morton	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
8	Stephen Strasburg		Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
9	Jack Flaherty T3	DET	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
10	Blake Snell	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+1
11	Patrick Corbin	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
12	Clayton Kershaw	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+1
13	Yu Darvish	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
14	Luis Castillo	SEA	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	+1
15	Walker Buehler	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-10
16	Lucas Giolito T4		Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
17	Chris Paddack	MIA	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
18	Corey Kluber		Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
19	Aaron Nola	PHI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
20	Sonny Gray	BOS	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
21	Lance Lynn		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
22	Carlos Carrasco	ATL	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+UR
23	James Paxton		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
24	Frankie Montas	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
25	Zack Greinke		Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	-
26	Trevor Bauer	LAD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+2
27	Zac Gallen	ARI	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-5
28	Madison Bumgarner		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+1
29	Tyler Glasnow	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-6
30	José Berríos	TOR	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
31	Kenta Maeda T5	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+4
32	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+4
33	Michael Soroka	ARI	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-2
34	Brandon Woodruff	MIL	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-4
35	Matthew Boyd	CHC	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+2
36	Luke Weaver	NYM	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+4
37	Hyun Jin Ryu		Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+4
38	Max Fried	NYY	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+4
39	Joe Musgrove	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+4
40	Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+4
41	Mike Minor		Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+11
42	Carlos Martínez T6		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-4
43	Zack Wheeler	PHI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-23
44	Julio Urías		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-5
45	Kyle Hendricks		Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+1
46	Sean Manaea	NYM	Ace Potential Injury Risk Ratio Focused	+1
47	Caleb Smith		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+1
48	Robbie Ray	SF	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+2
49	Dinelson Lamet		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-
50	Jake Odorizzi		Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+5
51	A.J. Puk	ARI	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+14
52	Mitch Keller	PIT	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+1
53	Andrew Heaney		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-8
54	Germán Márquez	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+3
55	Dylan Cease T7	TOR	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+3
56	Mike Foltynewicz		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-5
57	Jordan Montgomery	TEX	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+2
58	Alex Wood		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+2
59	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+2
60	Garrett Richards		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+3
61	Marcus Stroman		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+19
62	Griffin Canning	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+8
63	Rich Hill		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+8
64	Josh James		Ace Potential Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+5
65	Ryan Yarbrough	NYY	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused	+14
66	Josh Lindblom		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-
67	John Means		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-5
68	Pablo López	MIN	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
69	Spencer Turnbull	KC	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+4
70	Zach Plesac T8	STL	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+12
71	Aaron Civale		Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+12
72	Anthony DeSclafani		Strikeout Upside Toby Ratio Focused	+9
73	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+13
74	Kyle Gibson		Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+17
75	Adrian Houser	SF	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-8
76	Joey Lucchesi	LAA	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-1
77	Chris Bassitt	BAL	Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option	+21
78	J.A. Happ		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+21
79	Homer Bailey		Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+15
80	Wade Miley		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+4
81	Freddy Peralta T9	NYM	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
82	Corbin Burnes	ARI	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
83	Jon Gray		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+5
84	Nate Pearson T10	HOU	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+UR
85	Spencer Howard		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+UR
86	MacKenzie Gore	TEX	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+UR
87	Carlos Rodón T11	NYY	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
88	Ross Stripling		Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
89	Dustin May	STL	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+UR
90	Asher Wojciechowski		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+3
91	Jordan Lyles		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+4
92	Brendan McKay		Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+UR
93	Dylan Bundy		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-21
94	Martín Pérez T12	ATL	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
95	Dallas Keuchel		Toby Ratio Focused	-19
96	Austin Voth	TOR	Strikeout Upside Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
97	Aníbal Sánchez		Toby Ratio Focused	+UR
98	Michael Fulmer	SF	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
99	Chad Kuhl		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-3
100	Jake Arrieta		Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR

Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)