Every Monday during the season, I will be releasing “The List” where I rank the current value of the Top 100 pitchers in fantasy baseball for the rest of the season. Use these rankings to help understand what to expect from pitchers for 2017 and as a tool to gauge trade value in your fantasy leagues.
Let’s see how the SP landscape has changed:
- Yes, Kershaw stayed put (thanks for voting in our poll!), but the bigger Top 20 news is Jacob deGrom’s climb back to the Top 10, with Michael Fulmer taking a bit of a tumble. His low strikeout production, increased walks, and signs of regression aren’t doing him favors.
- Injuries are a big part of this week’s edition, with Danny Duffy getting a major bump as we finally got his rehab plan laid out for us (about three more starts to go). Cole Hamels returns Monday night, Dallas Keuchel is out for longer than expected, Madison Bumgarner may be back within the next two weeks, and Aaron Sanchez is about two away.
- Dan Straily deserves his spot in the Top 40 as his K/9 soars over 9.00 with a walk rate under 3.00. He’s inducing plenty of weak contact that suggests his 3.43 ERA is more legit than his 4.29 xFIP and with few great options after 40, he deserves your roster spot.
- As anyone reading the Roundups would expect, Dylan Bundy took a major fall even with his eight strikeout day. He isn’t showcasing good enough command to suggest his 3.75 ERA will stay below 4.00 and the strikeouts are inconsistent. Still worth a roster spot, but not over players with a clearer path to upside.
- Like Bundy, Sonny Gray just isn’t going to be the strong consistent producer you want him to be, making me favor guys like Brad Peacock and Jacob Faria as sacrificing Gray for a chance at their lottery upside is a worthwhile move.
- I admit I was too high on Jeff Hoffman in the past and I gave him a drop considering his whiff rates have fallen, his long term security in the rotation is in greater question, and at the end of the day, he hosts home games in Coors.
- Joe Biagini didn’t rebound as well as I hoped he would and his time in the Jays rotation could be limited. He’ll be competing with Francisco Liriano for the fifth rotation spot after the all-star break and with a trio of tough matchups ahead, he could be the easy pick to send to the pen.
- Plenty of high upside arms join The List this week. Eduardo Rodriguez is returning to the majors must faster than anticipated and jumps near Carlos Rodon to make a tier separation as a point where it’s worth it to chase upside over questionable floors. Another tier is where Drew Smyly, Luis Castillo, and Blake Snell land in the 70s. Smyly is getting closer to returning, Castillo will be a great arm down the road but may stumble in the short term and we don’t know what we’re going to get from Snell as he makes his way back to the majors on Wednesday.
- Ariel Miranda sneaks back onto The List as he’s a TEEs but a better one than those well under him. Don’t put much into this and he could be off again next week.
- Leaving The List this week are Edinson Volquez, Jaime Garcia, Joe Musgrove, Tyler Chatwood, and Robert Gsellman, all of which are just not pitching well enough to earn their spot.
Dropping Nova 21 spots. Is that a typo? The guy has the 4th most QS in the league. I suppose W and K/9 factor heavily in these rankings?
No typo, this is for 5×5 leagues (QS don’t matter), and he’s holding a 4.97 K/9 with a 3.90 ERA over his last 10 starts. Ouch.
You mention that Luis Castillo will be great down the road. Do you think he will be better than Jordan Montgomery, Zack Godley, Aaron Sanchez, or Drew Pomeranz near fantasy playoffs?
That is not a bet I’d like to make.
Any thoughts about tiers? Where are the big drop-offs and which clusters are close in value?
Brandon Mccarthy was just placed on the DL. I am hesitant to drop him for a Jon Gray or Carlos Rodon. Should I pull the trigger?
Do consider that it was the Dodgers placing a pitcher on the DL. They are not shy about a phantom DL stint for a pitcher… He will essentially miss one or two starts – don’t overreact to the “injury”
I’ve got Sonny Gray in a quality-starts league. You think I should drop him for Peacock?
In a QS league, you should hold Gray.
Killing it every week. Keep doing what you do.
12 teamer – each team has about 8 starters (total of 96 SP)
I have De Grom, Price, Paxton, Taillon, Nola, A. Sanchez & Happ as my top 7. (All happen to be in your top 40)
My bottom 2 left for debate are Clevinger & M.Montgomery.
Available are: Morton, Biagini, Gausman, Rodon, L.Castillo.
Should I be dropping one of my 2 (Clevinger, Montgomery) for Rodon or Morton? I want my #8-9 guys to be WIN guys with fair stats, so I feel like Clevinger, Montgomery and Morton should be the debate. Rodon though seems to be like a wild card guy.
I would be holding.
Kenta is back in the rotation now with the McCarthy injury. How does that change his ranking?
He raises a little, though McCarthy should be back in two weeks. Also, I’d be surprised if Maeda goes a full six innings, meaning it’s hard to invest in him much, especially as a long term guy.
E. Rodriguez, Rondon, Clevinger, or Newcomb?
I think Clevinger will stick around and Newcomb is tempting, but Rodriguez seems to have the most upside
Perfect assessments there. Newcomb gets the Astros next and I’d rather roll with Clev short term as he faces the Tigers.
If you don’t care for either of those starts, might as well grab Edu instead.
Rodon is more of a second half play, but Edu would be the better pick for that.
I see Happ ranked so highly on here and want to believe given his change in approach, but so far his success this year has come in a schedule pretty much devoid of the AL East. Any concern once we have to start rolling him out vs BOS and NYY?
so i see Gerrit Cole is pretty low on the list and based on that im trying to trade him away, but im curious as to why hes so low. before his horrible 4 game stretch he had 8 consecutive amazing starts and now 3 consecutive amazing ones as well. taking out those 4 bad starts he has a 2.44 era (obviously you cant just take out starts that dont fit your narrative but maybe he was dealing with a mechanics issue/injury that he appears to have fixed)
Even with these good recent starts, we’re seeing a low strikeout total from Cole.
Unfortunately, I’m on mobile right now so I can’t dive into this fully, but the over-arching idea is I don’t trust Cole to be a stud ceiling guy (strikeouts are missing) and more of a Top 25/30 arm at his best. Given that there is still question that he is there yet, I see him in the 30s for now. It’s well possible he regresses again.
Hoffman or Morton RoS
Hoffman. Love the second half schedule.