The List 5/24: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 9

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 9’s starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 8:30am – 11:00am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.

As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

• Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
• Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• Special Note: Jacob deGrom returns and takes the #1 one spot, innately pushing everyone down on The List by one. Please take this into consideration as The List ranks are all relative.
• I’ve elected to extend the first tier to #5 as Trevor Bauer and Yu Darvish have both been pitching as well as anyone with no signs of slowing down. Meanwhile Shane Bieber is going through issues as he throws too many breakers over the plate, pushing him down to the fifth spot.

 

• Tier 2 stays the same as all of them are dope and make you feel dope. Tier 3 nearly stays the same, even with many wanting me to lower Aaron Nola. I was wondering if I was going to do so, but honestly, there was no one ready to step up to be #11 instead.
• Zack Wheeler is the only change inside the tier as he jumps to the fourteenth spot, leap-frogging Tyler Glasnow and Hyun Jin Ryu. I’m a believer in Wheeler’s heater that has allowed him to suddenly push a near 30% strikeout rate and average seven frames per start, while Glasnow has had inconsistencies with his breakers + Ryu doesn’t quite do as much as Wheeler.

 

• It may confuse some to see Lucas Giolito and Max Fried without an AGA label one spot ahead of Trevor Rogers, who received his last week. In essence, I believe both Fried and Giolito will receive theirs shortly, they just need to go through the process of it, while I don’t want to ignore the circumstance that if there’s one pitcher who could lose his AGA label, it’s Rogers given the shortest track record of success. Please ignore the “-2” for Rogers as that’s purely due to Giolito’s ascension and deGrom’s return.
• Carlos Rodón has continued to impress, averaging over 96 mph on his fastball as he overwhelming the Yankees. It’s made his changeup a useful third option (and on some nights, a dominant #2!) while his slider benefits as well.

 

• Tier 5 leads with Blake Snell, who I didn’t want to reward too much for a start against Rockie Road, but got a push with Sonny Gray, Zach Plesac, Lance McCullers, and Tyler Mahle all needing a bit of a dip.
• Alex Wood passed his major test with flying colors, sitting down the Dodgers in a fantastic duel, featuring the hardest heater of his career at 91.8 mph and a new slider that is flat out filthy. Imagine if his changeup can be like the old days too…

 

• The sixth tier is the mystery tier of names common to the Top 30, yet have to work out their kinks in full. Charlie Morton, Kyle Hendricks, and Corey Kluber all excelled in the last week, though they all faced mediocre lineups. We need to see them square off against legit offenses before they earn our trust again.
• Patrick Corbin has had two poor outings after what seemed to be his renaissance start and it’s likely surprising many to see him at #41. In short, his April performances came with a 90/91 mph heater and few slider whiffs. In the fantastic start, he earned 13 slider whiffs with a 92.7 mph heater, while spotting fastballs glove-side effectively. In his last start, the results weren’t there against the Orioles, though he featured a 92.8 mph fastball + nine slider whiffs. The fastball location needs to be tweaked, but the ability is there. He’s worth your roster spot.

 

• Stephen Strasburg returned from the IL to face the Orioles and did so with a 92 mph fastball – his four-seamer came in at 94 mph in 2019 (we don’t count 2020). I hope he can get back to the harder heater in future outings and I’m cautiously optimistic at the moment.
• We also need to talk about Dylan Bundy, who I broke down for today’s Pitcher Video Breakdown, outlining how his approach is a bit too similar to his days in Baltimore. His slider is still one of the better sweepers out there and hope to see him rely on the pitch more in future weeks.

 

• It was great to see Zack Greinke look more like his former self, though we need to see a bit more success to elevate him back into the Top 40 range.
• As much as I want to push Kyle Gibson further up the ranks as he continues his incredible run, I can’t help but believe it’s a Vargas Rule with his hype reliance on BABIP and called strikes. His fastballs shouldn’t have a sub .240 BABIP with a 60%+ groundball rate. It just doesn’t happen.

 

• Domingo German’s rank may surprise some, but he’s allowed just 6 ER across his last five starts, averaging over a 6.0 IPS and about a strikeout per inning. He’s in the groove with his curveball (and occasionally changeup too!) and has earned my approval moving forward.
• I know, I know, Shane McClanahan falls despite surviving Dunedin and another game of five frames. It’s more about other guys jumping ahead (Gibson, Greinke, German, Strasburg, etc.) and I also wonder when we’ll see him properly unleashed as he only tossed 67 pitches in his most recent start. Let the man throw 85 and handle the lineup a third time!

 

• Tier 8 starts with Jameson Taillon, who falls nine spots despite having a positive outing against the White Sox. What?! You kept him up last week when he did poorly, and you lower him now when he fails?! YOU’RE CRAZY. What’s crazy to me is how his breakers haven’t taken the step forward I was expecting over the past few weeks. His start against the White Sox was a bit fortunate given his lack of command and I needed to take a step back on my expectations for that development. His #50 rank still showcases my belief he’ll get there over time, but I can’t stop ranking him above a slew of others.
• Speaking of expectations, Luis Castillo should be wonderful at some point. When? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. At the very least, we can all recognize what he could do and I’ll put it in your hands if you want to stash him for it, or need help now instead. I think we can all agree that we’d be shocked if he’s still pitching like this in August.

 

• Frankie Montas falls a good amount not because I don’t like him, but more that his lack of slider and splitter as whiff pitches is making me reassess his ceiling for the year. Still helpful on your teams, just not quite that guy right now.
• Some wanted me to move down Andrew Heaney after failing to excel against Cleveland, though it’s the nature of a Cherry Bomb. He’ll bring a high strikeout rate and a WHIP that doesn’t kill you at the cost of blips of ERA. It’s up to you if that’s what you need or not.

 

• Jordan Montgomery rises eight spots this week as he carries the #2 CSW pitch in the majors (min. 175 thrown) with his curveball boasting a 43.5% CSW rate. He’s found it as of late and I’m hoping it’s the beginning of a surge up The List.
• It’s time to give some more credit to Chris Bassitt, who has become a decent source of strikeouts as he mixes-and-matches his secondary pitches to complement his solid sinker. You’d be hard-pressed to find a manager not happy with Bassitt at the moment.

 

• After a phenomenal outing from Shohei Ohtani, he drops nine spots this week as his fastball dropped five ticks in his most recent outing against Cleveland. Terrifying. There have been no reports of an injury, but you have to wonder what is going on with Ohtani.
• JT Brubaker (aka Coffee Cakes) dropped as his stuff just wasn’t good enough to endure a pair of tough matchups. Don’t fret, he has a solid schedule now, but he’s more of a Toby than a confident #3/#4.

 

• Dallas Keuchel soars this week despite tossing just four frames against the Yankees. Still, his pitches were hovering the shadow zone effectively and now has a luscious schedule ahead of him. I’d love to have him rostered for the next couple of weeks.
• After tossing a no-hitter, Spencer Turnbull took a large leap into the Top 70. It’s the skills that impressed me, not the result, as he went four-seamer/slider 75% of the time. It’s what we’ve been waiting for.

 

• James Kaprielian is here solely because he could get two starts against the Mariners ahead. There’s a chance his second start is replaced by the return of Jesus Luzardo, though, so monitor the situation.
• I want to be more of a Boyd Boy, but I just can’t get in on Matthew Boyd until I see that slider return.

 

• The next tier features Adam Wainwright, a discount Cherry Bomb who can go 8+ frames when he faces below-average offenses. Don’t overlook it.
• I have a soft spot for Justin Dunn. He’s increased his fastball nearly three full ticks this year to 94/95 mph, while he’s serving a mix of curveballs and sliders to earn whiffs. With more time, this can turn into something legit.

 

• Tier 11 is a small one, featuring young arms and Nathan Eovaldi. I don’t have a ton of faith in these pitchers at the moment, but I recognize that if they continue to get their opportunities and shift their repertoires, there is upside to be had.
• For example, Garrett Richards just put up a great start inside Dunedin, but did so without his slider – his best pitch that has gone missing over the last month. Paired with a horrid schedule ahead, Richards shouldn’t be trusted.

 

• Tier 12 features a trio of Colorado pitchers, as they have favorable road starts ahead. Austin Gomber gets both the Mets and Pirates away from Coors and he’s here just for the week. Good luck to him.
• Casey Mize is getting more love from me as he earned his success against the Royals with well-located fastballs and splitters + sliders for whiffs. If he can keep up that ability, he’ll rise each week.

 

• We have a lot of new names this week on The List as we close it out with Tier 13. Cody Poteet, Alex Cobb, Mike Minor, Johnny Cueto, J.A. Happ, and Matt Shoemaker each have expressed the ability to act as a decent streamer and could be worth your time for their starts this week.
• Tyler Anderson falls all the way down to the bottom after his atrocity against Atlanta, making it tough to feel confident against the Cubs and Royals coming up. He may be worth it, but it’s close.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Jacob deGromT1	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+UR
2	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
3	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Trevor Bauer	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
5	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
6	Max Scherzer T2	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
7	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-1
8	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-1
9	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
10	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-1
11	Aaron Nola T3	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
12	Jack Flaherty	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
13	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
14	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
15	Tyler Glasnow	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-2
16	Hyun Jin Ryu	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
17	Julio Urías	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-1
18	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-1
19	John Means	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
20	Max Fried T4	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
21	Lucas Giolito	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
22	Trevor Rogers	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	-2
23	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
24	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-
25	Carlos Rodón	Ace Potential Quality Starts Streaming Option	+5
26	Blake Snell T5	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+3
27	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	-1
28	Ian Anderson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+3
29	Sonny Gray	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-4
30	Pablo López	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
31	Robbie Ray	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+3
32	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-
33	Zach Plesac	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-10
34	Aaron Civale	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+4
35	Alex Wood	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+16
36	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-8
37	Charlie Morton T6	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
38	Kyle Hendricks	Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+1
39	Corey Kluber	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
40	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-3
41	Patrick Corbin	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-6
42	Stephen Strasburg	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+UR
43	Dylan Bundy	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-16
44	Marcus Stroman T7	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+1
45	Domingo Germán	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+8
46	Zack Greinke	Ace Potential Quality Starts	+10
47	Kyle Gibson	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+3
48	Shane McClanahan	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	-2
49	Yusei Kikuchi	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-2
50	Jameson Taillon T8	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-9
51	Luis Castillo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-9
52	Chris Bassitt	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+7
53	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-10
54	Zach Eflin	Quality Starts	-
55	Andrew Heaney	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-
56	Madison Bumgarner	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+1
57	Chris Paddack	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+1
58	Jordan Montgomery	Strikeout Upside Toby Ratio Focused	+8
59	Adbert Alzolay	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+3
60	Sean Manaea	Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused	+1
61	Shohei Ohtani T9	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Stash Option	-9
62	Rich Hill	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+2
63	Cristian Javier	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-3
64	Dallas Keuchel	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+24
65	Dylan Cease	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-
66	JT Brubaker	Toby Ratio Focused	-17
67	Eduardo Rodriguez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-4
68	Spencer Turnbull	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+11
69	James Kaprielian	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+9
70	Matthew Boyd	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+1
71	Michael Pineda T10	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-3
72	Anthony DeSclafani	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-3
73	Brady Singer	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+4
74	Adam Wainwright	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+12
75	Justin Dunn	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+14
76	Tarik Skubal T11	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	+6
77	Garrett Richards	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-10
78	Griffin Canning	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-6
79	Luis García	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	-6
80	Dane Dunning	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-
81	Nathan Eovaldi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-5
82	Steven Matz T12	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	-1
83	Cole Irvin	Toby Streaming Option	+2
84	Casey Mize	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option Stash Option	+9
85	Germán Márquez	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+10
86	Jon Gray	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+10
87	David Peterson	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+4
88	Austin Gomber	Streaming Option	+UR
89	Logan Gilbert	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option Stash Option	-15
90		Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+4
91	Vince Velasquez T13	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-1
92	Tyler Anderson	Toby Streaming Option	-17
93	Cody Poteet	Streaming Option	+UR
94	Alex Cobb	Streaming Option	+UR
95	Kwang Hyun Kim	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+3
96	Mike Minor	Streaming Option	+UR
97	Johnny Cueto	Streaming Option	+UR
98	J.A. Happ	Streaming Option	+UR
99	Matt Shoemaker	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
100	Nick Pivetta	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-1

Photo by Kiyoshi Mio/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)