Welcome back to Sit/Start, where we review all expected starting pitcher matchups for the week ahead. I will be carrying over the ranking system from last year. There are three labels: Start, Maybe, and Sit.
Starts are surefire starts for those particular pitchers. This does not mean that they are incapable of having a bad outing, but I consider them more likely than not to have a good outing if they are designated as a Start. However, the degree of confidence I have in a pitcher to have a strong outing is judged by their number in the tier. For example, I am much more confident that a Start-10 will have a good outing than a Start-7, even though I expect both to perform well. The same goes for the other tiers. Maybes are starts that are a bit riskier, but depending on your league size or roster requirements, they may need to be used. A Start-10 is a pitcher who I believe will almost definitely have a strong outing: For example, a healthy Jacob deGrom at the Pittsburgh Pirates. A Sit-1 is a pitcher who under no circumstances you should consider starting.
Offense is starting to come alive slowly but surely, and that means that your options will become more limited and more urgent. With that being said, there are still worthwhile options on the table.
For some housekeeping, I will try my best to update these at least once after they go live, but there are a ton of schedule and rotation shufflings. I apologize ahead of time if something is not current in the table below.
Without further ado, let’s see how your rotation is shaping up for this week. Feel free to question my rankings in the comments, and let’s discuss!
Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)
A.Ashby or S.Strider for next week?
It’s possible Ashby doesn’t start this upcoming week, since the Brewers have an off day.
Joe Ryan doesn’t have a 2-start this week? 5/10 vs. HOU and 5/15 vs. CLE?
Must have changed this morning. I have updated it.
I was hoping you could share your thoughts on why Sonny Gray’s start v. CLE is an absolute must-avoid in your book. I’m hearing all sorts of different recommendations, including Nick’s blurb in the latest SP Roundup where he said he’d play Sonny for that start.
Also curious to hear if you’ve got any insight about different ways NYY’s rotation schedule might play out this week, what with all the PPD-related disruptions. I’ve got Nestor and Severino in a weekly league, so I’m going to be in a bit of a tough spot divining who’s starting when and against who before my roster locks.
Sorry for the wall of text, and thanks!
Just to clarify on the Nestor/Sevy point, I’ve seen probables forecasts listing Cortes for 5/9 v. TEX or for 5/11 v. TOR, and Severino for 10/5 v. TEX plus 15/5 @ CHW or only one start on 13/5 @ CWS
Which set of matchups they end up with is obviously going to change the start/sit equation pretty wildly
It’s hard to say for the Yankees. These matchups are always based on CBS probables, and I’ll keep it as such because I think they might be right here. Severino hasn’t pitched in a week, so one one hand, you could say they’d start him over Nestor. Since he is coming off of injuries, they could and might be skipping his start so he’ll line up where he normally would this week, and Nestor gets two starts. It’s all speculation though. I’d pay attention before lineups lock to see if anything comes to light.
For Gray, I just have seen this show play out time and again. He has flashes of dominance and also periods of uselessness for fantasy. He’s very volatile. With how much he walks batters and his ground ball rate being way down this year, I’m inclined to just avoid the potential disaster start.
Appreciate the advice, thanks!
Lucas, How do you feel about Tanner Houck pitching at Texas Saturday? Is he due to bounce back?
Would you start him on Saturday ahead of Blackburn or Zimmerman?
I wouldn’t trust Houck yet at all. He may bounce back at some point this season, but the Red Sox don’t have full confidence in him and you shouldn’t either. Blackburn and Zimmerman are both hot hand plays that should be decent streamers.