Welcome to Pitcher List’s Top 500 Dynasty Rankings (OBP) in Fantasy Baseball for the 2022 MLB season
Reading lists is easy. Think about how many “top 5”, “top 10”, or “best of” lists you probably read on almost a daily basis. It’s just a list of names, right? Easy-peasy.
Writing lists is HARD. Ranking of 500 baseball players is even harder. From the beginning I was confronted with Is it definitive? Your personal preference? Where do you start, from the “best” to the “worst”? Or is it better to work backward?
For these 2022 Top 500 Dynasty Rankings, I created my own methodology for writing these rankings and I’ll be outlining it below.
If you want to get to the names, feel free to skip the next section, I’ll see you at the bottom of the page!
Okay so if you’re reading this part, you must really care about the process. Awesome!
Question: How did you start writing this list?
Answer: I prepared these rankings with a 12 team dynasty league in mind, using a 5×5 scoring format with OBP instead of AVG and SVH for relievers. I realize that this approach may not produce the most valuable players and going forward I’ve made the mental note to contextualize my rankings for a 16T league.
I used a “blind” approach meaning that no other rankings were consulted. Zero. Why? I intended for these rankings from the ground up without being influenced by any recent group think or consensus. I read and considered scouting reports with certain prospects to determine future value.
Q: What’s the purpose of these rankings?
A: They are my attempt to rank the 500 players with the most value for OBP dynasty leagues, entering the 2022 season. Hence the title “2022 Top 500 Dynasty Rankings (OBP)”
Q: How do you define value?
A: “Value” is a composite of: previous performance, current age/skill, estimated production/skill development within the next 3 seasons. Additionally I used a forced distribution method, starting by bucketing groups of players by seven types (explained below) and ranked them within their bucket before assembling the final list.
Q: What did you use for data?
A: I used FanGraphs for most performance data, also looked at Statcast data when necessary. I also used the BBRef Player Compare Tool when ranking players of similar age + position + experience for differentiation. I also combined 2019-2020 numbers when necessary for full season stats. Steamer 2022, ZiPS 2022 (if available), ATC, The Bat, and The Bat X (if available) projections were used as well.
- This list uses Ohtani as a single player and not as two separate players (P/OF). Be advised.
- Bauer & Ozuna: Trevor Bauer was not included in this list while Marcell Ozuna was included. This decision was mine alone and not a moral or ethical one. It was only based on each player’s current eligibility as defined by Major League Baseball. As Bauer is still on the Restricted List, it is unknown when he would be eligible to play. Ozuna has been ruled eligible to play a full season (whatever length of season that may be).
- FYPD rankings are a separate exercise from this one. Additionally, this list began well before the January 15 international signing date. As such, any international signee (i.e. Suzuki, Arias, etc.) or 2021 draftee (Mayer, Watson, etc.) were not included.
Player Types (Percentage of Total Rankings):
|Franchise Cornerstone (10%)|
These are the “Set it and Forget it” players. The best of the best who should be targeted within the first 4-5 rounds of any startup league draft.
|Everyday Starter (35%)|
Players that are expected to get 500+ ABs/120+ IPs and produce toward the top of fantasy relevant categories. These players range in age/experience/skills but ultimately act as the base of most dynasty leagues.
|Top 100 Prospects (20%)|
Self-Explanatory. MLB rookie eligibility criteria (50IP/150ABs) was used to determine prospect status. FYPD eligible players not included.
|Bench Bats (10%)|
Position players that are likely to fall below the 500+ AB metric but bring value in one or two specific categories (HRs, SBs, etc.)
|Top Relievers (less than 1%)|
An incredibly small pool of pitchers that have shown recent ability to deliver in saves and/or holds along with high strikeout numbers. The volatility of relief pitching makes this player type difficult for me to quantify and therefore the least valuable for me to rank.
|Back-end Arms (8%)|
Similar to the “Bench Bat” type, a collection of SP4 and MIRP types that are useful in one or two specific categories. The volatility is slightly above “Top Relievers” but pitchers in this pool can easily slide into other types or fall completely out of the top 500.
|Prospects Outside of the Top 500 (15%)|
This pool of players contains a variety of prospects from pop up types to dart throws that are heavy on potential but light on results of note.
I’m suprised to see Tork so high on this list even above Julio Rodriguez and many MLB players….why so high? Do you know something about him that I don’t being he struggled a bit last year?
My guess is look at his early season numbers vs his later season numbers. He got white hot later on so he’s rolling with a ton of momentum.
WAnder is going into his Age-21 season with a .347 OBP last year… But by month:
.306 (36PA), .294 (92 PA), .382 (110 PA), .386 (70 PA), Postseason: .368 (19 PA).
How is this guy ranked below Noveli Marte, going into Age 21 season: hit .366 in A & High A last year.
Seems a bit low for a dude who had a 40 game OBP streak in the show at 20.
I was about to say … LOL
One general comment: as someone who has played in a Dynasty OBP league since 2007, you’ve got prospects in general way too high compared to a lot of young big leaguers who maybe haven’t broken out yet. Elite prospects belong up there near the top, but so many of the back half of the top 100 types will never amount to anything. To put a lot of those guys so far ahead of the likes of Vaughn, Hayes, Adell, Kiriloff, etc. is a big whiff imo, though I want to play in your league!
That was my first thought as well. No one is trading Yordan for JRod, or Alonso for O.Martinez. It looks like a decent list if all farm guys were to be moved down quite a bit. I think you have to get into the 50ish area of “older” guys before I’d start considering swapping one of them straight up for a JROD type. Even in that area I’d have a hard time hitting accept for the younger guys like Robert/Albies/Alonso.
As he noted though, making these lists is very difficult so kudos for a list with only one minor complaint.
Not to mention someone like Cedric Mullins who is only 27 is ranked 104. I can understand some question if he can duplicate last years season but still he is at the very least a top 50 player but is ranked behind prospects who hope to one day come close to what Mullins has already achieved. Again I understand it’s easy to offer criticism then it is to put my own list together but still it doesn’t make much sense.
I’m another longtime dynasty player that feels the need to add prospects are ranked too high here. The top 10 or so are probably ranked 20+ spots too high. The rest are easily 50+ spots too high. Age is very important in dynasty leagues, but so is production at the major league level. To rank so many pitching prospects above guys who have proven it in the majors like Castillo, Berrios, Fried, Flaherty, and Musgrove is borderline crazy.
Thanks for putting this together! Agree with others that prospects are very highly but I know all leagues do it differently- having them color coded helps sort through them. I also noticed that Crochet was not on here. Where would he slot in?
Oof.. I’m confused by this list.
Where is Trevor Story?
Just plugged all of this into an average rankings list and said the same?!
I don’t even blame the writer for this, as he’s taking his lumps on Twitter quite well and owning up to overthinking it. It’s just functionally useless, and somebody needed to say so. The prospect rankings vis-a-vis other prospects are actually quite good, I think, but the rest is not useable whatsoever.
Editors should not have allowed this to be published.. I feel bad none of the team leaders at PL said anything and then promoted this.
Wish you gave some love to Bobby Miller so I felt better about just trading for him.
Given the rest of the rankings here I don’t think you should feel bad about that lol
These are definitely rankings.
It’s still useful as a prospect list thanks to the color coding. Or if you don’t want your team to be good for 5 years.