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NL West Division Preview

Look ahead at what the NL West will look like this year

Gabe Goralnick
Baseball 3/27/2023

Hello all, and welcome to the 2023 Division Previews: NL West edition! I’ll be taking you through each team in reverse order of standings from last season. We’ll highlight each team’s strengths and weaknesses as well as go over projected lineups, benches, rotations, and bullpens. We’ll also be talking about any storylines to follow and prospects who will be making an impact this season. A few quick notes before diving in:

 

  • I’ve based the information in the tables heavily on Fangraphs’s roster resource projections.
  • Players who are currently on the IL will either be listed at the bottom of their respective tables or in the paragraphs that follow them.
  • If I didn’t touch on your favorite prospect, don’t worry — we have an entire hub of top prospects lists for your enjoyment and research purposes.

 

Colorado Rockies

2022 Record: 68-94 (.420 W%)

 

Notable Roster Changes

 

Projected Lineup

 

Projected Bench

 

 

One of the biggest positives of the Rockies’ 2022 season was Brendan Rodgers‘ contributions to the team. The middle infielder was consistent at the plate for much of the season, all while earning himself a Gold Glove in the process. Rodgers was in prime breakout territory heading into his age-26 season until he dislocated his shoulder at the beginning of Spring Training, and he will now miss most or all of 2023.

While much of the NL West has continued to look outside their organizations to improve their rosters, the Rockies opted not to do much of that this offseason. Instead, Colorado hopes to get what it could not from last offseason’s prized acquisition. After being handed a seven-year, $182 million contract, Kris Bryant spent the majority of 2022 on the injured list, participating in just 42 games.

During his limited 181 plate appearances, he did however slash .306/.376/.851. Bryant’s rough 2022 combined with Rodgers’ injury places significant pressure and a heavy burden on Bryant to produce and stay healthy this year.

C.J. Cron completed 2022 with 29 home runs and over 100 RBI, but his home and away splits were drastic. It is safe to say he can not be expected to be much of a help on offense during away games. The remainder of the lineup mainly consists of guys like Charlie Blackmon, Yonathan Daza, Jurickson Profar, and Ryan McMahon who can be expected to have average seasons at the plate, especially with a little help from the Coors effect.

Nolan Jones, acquired from Cleveland over the offseason, could also become a factor. The former top prospect was never able to put much together with his former team, but there’s always a chance that a change of scenery could help.

 

Projected Starting Rotation

 

No Rockies’ starting pitcher held a sub-4.50 ERA in 2022 and the team looks poised to repeat that in 2023. Germán Márquez will carry a large inning load of around 200, but he is the only starting pitcher on the Rockies that Fangraphs projects to have a sub-5.00 ERA.

Kyle Freeland has been fairly consistent with his ERAs around 4.50 for the past few seasons. He tends to strike out around seven batters per nine innings while allowing about three walks.

José Ureña has failed to deliver solid production at the Major League level for a while, but his 5.14 ERA with the Rockies was not that bad for that rotation. He earned himself a return ticket to Colorado over the offseason with a team option for 2024.

In two seasons with the Rockies so far, Austin Gomber has started 40 games and had a 5.06 ERA during that time. He compiles a modest number of strikeouts, but he will need to control the run game much better to find success.

 

Projected Bullpen

 

Colorado struck gold with Daniel Bard in 2022. There is however the question as to how long Bard can keep this up as he already finds himself in his upper-30s. His WBC performance was not encouraging as it served to remind people how quickly he can unravel as he did around a decade ago with the Red Sox. Pierce Johnson and Dinelson Lamet are both projected to carry a heavy load of relief innings while also potentially collecting a few saves for themselves.

Storylines to Follow

 

As mentioned, the storyline to follow is Bryant. The Rockies’ season truly hinges on his ability to stay healthy and lead the team. If he cannot do so, it is hard to see the Rockies taking much of a step forward.

 

Impact Prospect

 

Ezequiel Tovar is the prospect to watch on the Rockies this season. His fielding at shortstop has always been the righty’s best tool, but he has developed solid offensive tools as he has grown up. He will fill Rodgers’ spot on the roster for the year as he hopes to make a good enough impression to stay with the team next year after Rodgers’ return.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks

2022 Record: 74-88 (.457 W%)

 

Notable Roster Changes

 

 

Projected Lineup

 

Projected Bench

It has been a while since the Diamondbacks have been relevant, and who’s to place much of the blame on them when their division has the Padres and Dodgers and their mostly fluid spending budgets? However, despite its relative economic limitations, Arizona appears to be on the cusp of playing competitive baseball.

Just a handful of games into his Major League career, Corbin Carroll is the most anticipated position player on the Diamondbacks to watch heading into 2023. The outfielder is MLB.com’s second-overall prospect and the Diamondbacks’ top prospect. His most impressive tool is his speed, but his hit, power, and fielding tools create the mold for an all-around great player.

Ketel Marte followed up several impressive seasons including a top-five NL MVP finish with a dud of a 2022 season. His 106 OPS+ last season would say he was still a slightly above-average bat, but the team nevertheless needs a lot more than that from Marte in 2023.

 

Projected Starting Rotation

Zac Gallen was the most impressive piece of the 2022 team. The righty pitched over 180 innings while carrying a 2.54 ERA and 0.913 WHIP, proceeding to finish fifth in NL Cy Young voting. Gallen will be nothing short of a force at the top of the Diamondbacks’ 2023 starting rotation.

Merrill Kelly also turned heads in 2022, having a career year in his age-33 season. Whether or not he can repeat a 119 ERA+ season, Kelly is undoubtedly capable of at least eating a large chunk of innings, which will be important in controlling the workload of the team’s somewhat shallow bullpen.

The Diamondbacks’ most accomplished pitcher has done nothing but disappoint since arriving in Arizona in 2020. In his three seasons since departing from the Giants, Madison Bumgarner has a near 5.00 ERA while collecting just 15 more strikeouts than he had in 2016 alone. Maybe the veteran starter can rediscover something in 2023, but with a ton of blue and very little red on his Baseball Savant page, Bumgarner’s metrics are less than encouraging.

 

Projected Bullpen

 

Arizona’s bullpen had a fairly rough 2022, finishing the season with a combined 4.58 ERA, but one major bright spot was Joe Mantiply’s 60 innings pitched with a 1.083 WHIP. 2023 will be an important year for Mantiply to prove that 2022 was not a fluke, and if he proves that, the impact on the Diamondbacks moving forward will be significant.
The most important pitching acquisition of the Diamondbacks’ offseason was arguably Andrew Chafin. Coming off several consecutive productive seasons, Chafin will not only be a productive arm in the bullpen, but he will also be an important veteran presence on the pitching staff and in the clubhouse.

 

Storylines to Follow

 

The Diamondbacks have two main storylines entering 2023. The first is whether guys like Gallen and Christian Walker can follow up their 2022s with similar 2023s and spearhead a competitive 2023. The second storyline surrounds guys like Carroll and Gabriel Moreno and if they can follow through on their lofty projections.

 

Impact Prospect

 

Despite still being considered a prospect, Carroll has propelled himself to be widely considered an integral part of Arizona’s Major League team. Therefore, it is fitting to give someone else the honor of impact prospect here. That man is Brandon Pfaadt. Detailed here is the righty’s three-pitch mix with a mid-90s four-seamer that tops out at 96 mph. Pfaadt will be given some more innings in triple-A before making his MLB debut, but he will eventually be given his chance to make a significant impact this season.

 

San Francisco Giants

2022 Record: 81-81 (.500 W%)

Notable Roster Changes

 

 

Projected Lineup

Projected Bench

Short of acquiring a high-priced face of the team, the Giants did a lot to move past their deflating 2022. There are few things that feel worse than following up a 100-plus win season, with a season defined by mediocrity.  The team bid farewell to some names that represented the team’s mediocrity and brought in some quality replacements with high ceilings.

The team will hope for the best out of LaMonte Wade Jr. and Thairo Estrada, but the return of Joc Pederson is hugely important and the hope is that he will be the anchor for a lineup that has come up short in run production in recent years.

Michael Conforto will be important in that effort as well, although he has not stepped into the batter’s box in a regular season game since 2021. The former Met has some impressive seasons under his belt and has the potential to be the most productive member of the San Francisco lineup this year.

Currently out hurt is Mitch Haniger. Once he returns hopefully not too far into the season, he will be the third piece of the trio in the middle of the lineup. The former all-star has spent significant time on the injured list in recent years, but when healthy has slashed .259/.334/.478 since 2018.

 

Projected Starting Rotation

 

The loss of Carlos Rodón is unfortunate for the Giants, but with some help from the free-agent market, Farhan Zaidi has put together a quality rotation for 2023. Following his 2021 breakout and an impressive 2022, Logan Webb deserves nothing less than headlining his rotation. His mix of quality pitches earned him a sub-3.00 ERA in 2022, and he could get even better as he matures.

The remainder of the Giants’ rotation consists of a group of quality arms. Alex Cobb threw around 150 solid innings last year with a 1.303 WHIP. Ross Stripling was similar but slightly better than Cobb although he threw around 20 fewer innings. Sean Manaea, however, had some serious struggles in the second half of 2022, which seriously deflated his free-agent market in the offseason. He was probably just worn out, but sometimes pitchers’ stuff never comes back even after an offseason. Alex Wood also struggled last year with a 5.10 ERA over 130 innings.

 

Projected Bullpen

 

 

Storylines to Follow

 

The storyline to follow for the Giants this year is their hope to escape the aforementioned mediocrity. They felt like they had found something in 2021 all for that to soon be chalked up to a handful of overperformances. The front office improved the roster, but now it is up to the players to perform and find their way into a wild card spot.

 

Impact Prospect

 

If anyone on the left side of the Giants’ infield heads to the injured list or is simply not producing, Casey Schmitt could see a call-up sometime into the season. The 24-year-old and former second-round draft pick impressed at the plate in 2022, slashing .293/.365/.489 between three levels of the minors. He is mainly a third baseman but has shown the potential to hold down a solid shortstop as well.

 

San Diego Padres

2022 Record: 89-73 (.549 W%)

 

Notable Roster Changes

 

 

Projected Lineup

 

Projected Bench

 

The Padres have the hands-down most frightening lineup in MLB heading into opening day, and it will not even be at full strength yet until the return of Fernando Tatis in May. The pressure that the top of San Diego’s lineup puts on opposing pitchers is simply unparalleled. Xander Bogaerts‘ power numbers may face regression without the Green Monster, but that will only encourage the shortstop to use the whole field even more: especially out of the leadoff spot.

A full season of Manny Machado and Juan Soto hitting back-to-back will be a spectacle. Soto spent most of 2022 being unprotected in Washington’s lineup which made him a no-brainer to be pitched around. It is safe to say Machado offers sufficient protection to Soto to be given far more pitches to hit this season.

 

Projected Starting Rotation

 

San Diego’s starting rotation does not turn heads quite like its lineup does, but it is still in the front of the pack when put up against other MLB rotations. Missing from the table above is Joe Musgrove, who will begin the season on the injured list due to a broken toe. He is, however, expected to return in mid-April and push Seth Lugo back into the bullpen. Signed in San Diego through 2027, Musgrove is coming off two consecutive highly productive seasons and is poised to repeat them in 2023.

Joining Musgrove at the front end of the rotation are Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. Darvish recently signed an extension to stay with the Padres into his 40s. Throwing 194 innings with a 0.950 WHIP, 2022 saw him experience one of the best seasons of his career, despite being in his mid-30s.

Snell had some struggles last year but improved as the season progressed, finishing 2022 with a 3.38 ERA. Additionally, Michael Wacha will be an interesting case in 2023. 2022 was his best year overall in a very long time, but his stuff struggled in the final month of the season.

 

Projected Bullpen

 

 

Whatever Josh Hader was missing down the stretch in 2022, he seemed to have found when it mattered most in the postseason. There should not be much reason to worry about Hader and it is not crazy to expect him to return to his pre-2022 form.

Perhaps the biggest standout from the Padres bullpen last playoffs was Robert Suarez. In his first Major League season at the age of 31 last season, the righty threw 47.2 innings, while allowing just 12 earned runs and holding a WHIP of 1.049. Then, in his first-ever Major League postseason last year, Suarez threw five-straight scoreless appearances.

 

Storylines to Follow

 

Even as the Padres have continued to acquire talent, the Dodgers have managed to outpace them on the field. However, that finally changed when the Padres bested the Dodgers in the NLDS last October. San Diego hopes to carry that last postseason’s success into the upcoming regular season and best Los Angeles in regular season play.

The other major storyline to follow is Tatis. Nearing a return from the injured list last season, he tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs. The infielder is set to return from his lengthy suspension in May and could serve to further boost the Padres on offense and defense.

However, who is to say that his success prior to the injury and suspension was not in part due to steroid use? There are several unknowns regarding Tatis, and all we can really do is speculate until he makes his long-anticipated return.

 

Impact Prospect

 

The Padres have traded much of their minor league depth to get their major league roster to where it is right now, so most of the system’s top members are down in the low minors. An interesting name to watch who could make an impact down the stretch this year is Jay Groome. Groome joined the Padres system last season after being swapped for Eric Hosmer prior to the trade deadline.

He has thrown 14 innings while allowing just two earned runs this spring and manager Bob Melvin has expressed his optimism in the southpaw. There is a chance Groome could start the season with the major league club in the bullpen, but if he does not, he will likely find himself in San Diego at some point in 2023 and will have the chance to make a contribution.

 

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

2022 Record: 111-51 (.685 W%)

 

Notable Roster Changes

 

 

Projected Lineup

 

Projected Bench

 

The Dodgers are staying under the luxury tax threshold in 2023. That means they have set up their team to be good, but money constraints prevented them to compile a team quite as impressive as they have had for the past few seasons. One thing is the same though, and that is Mookie Betts leading off. Betts complied 6.4 bWAR in 2022, a season-high in Dodger blue, and slashed .269/.340/.533.

Following Betts is Freddie Freeman, making for a stellar one-two punch. Freeman’s 5.9 bWAR in 2022 was the second-highest of his career; already a bit into his 30s, he shows no signs of regression. He led the league in runs, hits, doubles, and on-base percentage last year and played in 159 of 162 games.

Will Smith is one of a small handful of catchers with at least a solid hit tool in baseball. His hit tool is not just solid, however, it is so good that he is projected to hit third for the Dodgers. In 2022, Smith slashed .260/.343/.465 while hitting 26 doubles and 24 home runs.

Max Muncy and J.D. Martinez are the big lineup question marks. Muncy had just a .713 OPS in 2022, while Martinez has a .790 OPS and struggled mightily in the second half. They will both need to work with the Dodgers hitting coaches to find their strokes again, but if they fail to do so, things will not go very well for Los Angeles’ lineup as a whole.

 

Projected Starting Rotation

 

Similar to the lineup, the Dodgers’ rotation has a strong core, followed by a bevy of question marks. Julio Urías will be the most reliable to toe the rubber every fifth day and pitch close to 200 quality innings. Clayton Kershaw still has some of the most dominant stuff in the league, but he consistently runs into injury battles every season.

As for Dustin May, he returned from Tommy John surgery last season to pitch 30 innings with a 4.50 ERA. The hope is that May can find some semblance of his pre-surgery self, but if he cannot it will place more pressure on Noah Syndergaard who joins the Dodgers for his second full-season post-Tommy John surgery. Syndergaard progression mainly hinges on him adding velocity to his fastball after it sat in the low-90s last year.

 

Projected Bullpen

 

In the absence of a big-name closer, Evan Phillips will assume that role for 2023. Phillips’ 2022 campaign was his best yet having thrown 63 innings while allowing just eight earned runs. Only two of those innings were saves, so the closer role will be a new one for Phillips.

Alex Vesia is another important part of this bullpen that has been highly productive over the past couple of seasons. Having pitched nearly 100 innings between the last two seasons, Vesia has given up just 23 earned runs during that period. He and Brusdar Graterol should be given some chances to save as well. Graterol carried his heaviest inning load yet in 2023 and he did not disappoint. He has struggled in the past with allowing baserunners, but he kept his WHIP just below 1.000 last season.

Caleb Ferguson will also be given the ball in many crucial innings this year. He pitched 34.2 innings last year with a 1.82 ERA, but perhaps his most impressive feat was that he allowed just one home run. Nevertheless, some of his advanced metrics like his expected ERA and fielding independent pitching might suggest that with a worse Dodger defense in 2023, Feerguson’s stats could see a regression

 

Storylines to Follow

 

2023 is a bridge year for the Dodgers, and they will go back to their old spending habits next offseason after resetting the luxury tax, but it is still important to do their best to hold off the Padres. It may not be possible with how much talent to Padres are boasting, but it is still important. If the Dodgers lose their monopoly over division control, there will be a momentum shift in the NL West and the Dodgers will have to do a lot more to make their way back to the top in 2024.

 

Impact Prospect

 

After being drafted in 2020 by the Dodgers, RHP Bobby Miller has made his way through the minors fairly quickly, reaching Triple-A last year. He only has around 20 Triple-A innings under his belt, so he will spend some time there before making his major league debut. Once that day comes, however, there is a lot to anticipate. Miller’s pitch mix includes an upper-90s fastball, a plus-plus slider, as well as a changeup and two-seamer. If any of the team’s starters fall to injuries, Miller could be one of the first guys on the list to replace them.

 

Division Predictions

 

Even with the Dodgers’ consistent and unwavering dominance over the last several years, I think the Padres may have finally done enough to surpass them. Here is how I think the NL West will shake out this year:

 

Order Team Record
1 San Diego Padres 100-62
2 Los Angeles Dodgers 95-67
3 San Francisco Giants 89-73
4 Arizona Diamondbacks 79-83
5 Colorado Rockies 69-93

 

Gabe Goralnick

A senior at Yeshiva University studying political science and a diehard baseball lover from the Big Apple. He's either watching baseball, writing about baseball, or cooking some awesome food.

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