Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch weekday mornings from 9 am-11 am ET.
Tyler Mahle @ MIL (L) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 92 pitches.
Boy has it been rough rostering Tyler Mahle this year. We (Read: I) have given him all excuses we could think of thus far from pointing his poor track record at home to sympathizing with his road schedule, but this one tonight, this was different. Heading to Milwaukee to face the Brewers was destined for redemption and…it was not. 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 92 pitches was the final line as we’re left wondering what the h*ck we’re supposed to do.
I honestly can’t explain it. Mahle bumped his velocity up 1.5 ticks in this one and didn’t have terrible command. His slider and splitter were far from pristine, but generally that fastball does plenty better than it has thus far and should have done better here. I know many of you want to flat-out drop Mahle now and if there’s something truly beneficial out there, then I don’t have a major gripe with it, just take a moment and wonder if you want to wait just a touch longer as Mahle is slated to face the Pirates for two straight starts. The Pirates. It’s not an automatic lock given how he just faced the Brewers, but considering the potential full-season ceiling and how it could theoretically flip on a dime at any point (he’s wearing a TIARA), I think it’s in your best interest to see if it does against a team that warrants a decent floor for the opposing pitcher.
So yeah, I feel your pain, like I do with Morton and Rogers from today. We go through this every season with someone and more times than not, that previously considered “rock” of a pitcher figures it out. We can only hope Mahle is next in line.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Carlos Carrasco vs ATL (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.
Well I’ll be danged. I lowered Carrasco plenty on Monday for a trio of reasons. 1) He hasn’t had both his changeup and slider working in a start and his rough outing seemingly confirmed my fears and 2) after the poor outing, I didn’t feel comfortable starting him against the mighty Atlanta & Philadelphia offenses in the short term. It meant he slotted past the ceiling arms of Tier 10 instead of fitting in around the Tier 9 crew of stable six-inning hurlers. So what did Carrasco do in this start anyway? Well…Atlanta gave him a ton of right-handers which meant he went all-in on fastballs and sliders and it worked incredibly well, earning whiffs on both offerings through the game. The changeup was fine when used — 5/9 strikes — and I’m sitting here wondering if we can buy this against the Phils. I guess so? Welp, color me silly for not believing in you after your worst start of the year and two dangerous offenses ahead. Here goes nothing.
Brad Keller vs STL (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
Keller had his slider working again (woot!) and it allowed him to carve up outs and use his heaters as he likes to. He’s reminding me a bit of Danny Duffy’s ridiculous April 2021 run, but I’m not sure I want to Vargas Rule this with the Rangers up next. Your call.
Julio Urías vs SF (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 65 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Yes, I’m giving that to Urías despite not having his supreme velocity as the man pitches. His velocity was down a bit early in this one and ramped up as it went on before Dave Roberts gave him the early hook with just 65 pitches. But hey, save those bullets, keep cruising through lineups, and make us all forget that you’re supposed to be sitting around 94 mph instead of 92.
Humberto Castellanos @ MIA (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
Castellanos outdueled Rogers by a longshot and it just adds salt to the wound. So, that means I pick him up for Trevor, yeah? Why are you the way that you are. Well I just feel so sorry for the scenario and I don’t know if I’ll get another chance to pitch like this again as there’s a deep drive to left and that’ll make it a 4-0 ballgame.
Michael Wacha vs LAA (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 60 pitches.
Ummmm that’s a total of just 4 ER allowed by Wacha in five starts. It seems awfully like a Vargas Rule where there isn’t much of anything to get excited about that defines 2022 Wacha from years past, but he does get the White Sox next as a right-hander and it could keep going. Sure seems a whole lot like smoke and mirrors, though. But Nick, how can mirrors be real if our eyes aren’t real? Jaden, now is not the time. Jeez, read a room.
Cristian Javier vs SEA (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 13% CSW, 87 pitches.
Wow. 13% CSW and 0 ER?! 41% of Javier’s four-seamers resulted in foul balls in this one, which is all kinds of wild, and his breaker was okay, not exceptional, but that somehow turned into this gem of an outing. It seems a bit off and the Twins could mess him up a bit next time, but I think we’re still going to let him fly.
Michael Kopech @ CHC (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 83 pitches.
Despite the lack of earned runs, my concerns are far from quelled after this one — he’s hurling decent but not elite fastballs without stellar command while his slider leaves a lot to be desired — 1/15 CSW here. At least the curveball went 10/13 strikes, but this feels more like a control thing than a legit command thing, you know? Glad it worked today, not sure it will tomorrow.
Scott Effross vs CWS (L) – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 18 pitches.
Jeez Scott, I know we’re not the biggest fans of Stripling, but Effross? That seems way over the top. He’s a cool guy, you should get to know him instead of opening for a bullpen game.
Erick Fedde @ COL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 102 pitches.
Remember kids, Don’t Trust The Feddes. Wait a second, there’s something else written on here that’s covered in dust. Wipes away the filth Ah, what’s that say? Except when in Coors because why the h*ck not. Whoops. Totally missed that one.
Alek Manoah vs NYY (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces. Gonna. Ace. I’m a man of my word and Manoah is a man of oh my word! I still want to see a few more sliders for strikes (just 52% here) but his four-seamer and sinker are doing all the legwork to squeeze the most of out the ridiculous slide piece. He’s so good.
Jameson Taillon @ TOR (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 71 pitches.
I lowered Taillon dramatically on The List this past week for a simple reason: I didn’t want to start him for back-to-back starts against the Blue Jays. I’m thrilled to see him cruise through six frames on just 71 pitches, though I’m still searching for that pitch to truly lean on with confidence. He still gets hit decently hard and while his cutter, slider, and curveball each had a few moments, it’s not enough for me to feel confident next week despite surviving against the same team. I hate this. I hate being the “low man” on one of my adorations for years, but I won’t let old emotions get in the way. He’s essentially a solid Toby at this point and if for you that means he’s worth holding onto despite the short-term risk, then by all means, do so.
Chris Flexen @ HOU (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 84 pitches.
Flexen keeps on cruising as he’s continuing his tour to prove 2021 wasn’t a fluke. Crazy, I know. I’m staying away but hey, it could happen — it already did once.
Joe Ryan @ BAL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 81 pitches.
Blegh. He’s still at 92 mph, but he didn’t do a proper BSB and he got a bit unlucky. I knew I shouldn’t have trusted a man with two first names. Whatever, keep starting JR.
Bruce Zimmermann vs MIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 81 pitches.
It ain’t the prettiest of outings, but a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP is fine and dandy for a stream. His changeup and slider each returned 35%+ CSW and now he gets the Royals. I guess we’re cool with that one too.
Carlos Rodón @ LAD (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Not the greatest outing from Rodón against the Dodgers, but he sat 97 mph and there are some days where you just tip your cap. Whatareayagonnado. Weird saying that when he still produced a 3.00 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP.
Noah Syndergaard @ BOS (L) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 100 pitches.
It really is fascinating how Thor has turned into a Toby in front of our eyes. I can see him now, putting on his tie in the morning, noticing his thinning hair and embracing the inevitable shine on his scalp while winking at the mirror. But Nick, how can mirrors be rea—JADEN, PLEASE. Don’t expect the Syndergaard of old, but sure, keep starting him. At least his slider is earning a ton of effective strikes.
Kyle Wright @ NYM (L) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
Hmmmm. His command wasn’t as poor as against the Cubs, but it wasn’t pretty, either. Curveballs, sliders, and sinkers all found a bit too much of the plate (albeit, curveballs returned 12 called strikes in the process), though his four-seamer was still generally well commanded up. Keep starting him and all against the Red Sox and I’m hoping we get more of his pristine self.
Dakota Hudson @ KC (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 84 pitches.
Look at you go, Hudson, earning the very first VVVPQS of the season. An absolute diaster for those in non-quality start leagues. Now it’s the Giants and that’s a clear avoid unless I was hunting for a QS on Sunday (still don’t love it!).
Brandon Woodruff vs CIN (W) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna ace as Woodruff earned himself a Golden Goal. He allowed back-to-back jacks in the fourth, then got pulled in the sixth with a man on, who came around to score. Bummer. Anyway, his four-seamer continued to be an elite SwStr pitch and everything seems fixed here with Woodruff. He’s Top 5 SP material again.
Ranger Suárez vs TEX (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
So the sinker is doing its part, but the changeup sure isn’t. He allowed a two-run shot off the bat of Mitch Garver with the slow ball and went 2/21 CSW with the pitch all night. That ain’t it. Our patience is running thin with Suárez and with the Mets and Dodgers up next, it may be time to let go.
David Peterson vs ATL (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.
He allowed a long-ball that nearly cost him the Win, but ultimately, Peterson performed well as he got the start on doubleheader day. He’s out of the rotation once again now, though I’d be a little interested when he ultimately returned — that slider went 7/19 whiffs today and that’s h*ckin’ fantastic.
Paul Blackburn vs TB (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 64 pitches.
Ouch. This isn’t a death sentence for Blackburn, it’s just one of those nights as he still had solid cutters and curveballs. I imagine if you started him here, you’re still starting him against the Tigers and let’s hope he pulls it off like a good Toby does.
Jon Gray @ PHI (ND) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 60 pitches.
He returned from the IL in a Still ILL situation and went 0/16 CSW on his new slider. ZERO. FOR. SIXTEEN. Hi, Yahoo!? Yes, this is Nick. Can I please keep Gray on the IL for another two weeks. Yes, yes, I know he’s not on the IL anymore. I’d like to keep him there regardless. And make other roster moves, yes. No? I MUST SPEAK WITH THE MANAGER. At least the velocity was 94/95 mph. I don’t want to start him against the Yankees next and want to wait at least one more start before jumping in. If you don’t have someone to cut for Gray, it’s up to you. I expect Gray to begin helping your teams in two weeks and likely become a hold through the year near the bottom of your rotation. Do with that what you will.
Charlie Morton @ NYM (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 99 pitches.
Bleeeegh. A trio of frustrating starters went today between Morton, Mahle, and Rogers, and in most cases, you’re holding on and hoping for the best. But Nick, I want to drop him! For who? It better be someone who definitively helps now as I still believe Morton has the skills to correct himself and produce for the majority of the season — even if he’s missing a touch of horizontal movement on his curveball. But hey, if you have that great option on the wire and Morton is your worst arm, you do you. I feel all of y’alls pain.
Trevor Rogers vs ARI (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 78 pitches.
Like with Morton and Mahle, this one hurts. A lot. I don’t think Rogers actually pitched that poorly in this one, if you can believe it. Sure, there were some hittable heaters, but his changeup was well commanded and his slider wasn’t falling in the heart of the plate or wildly ineffective. Seriously, I saw the line and expected the worst and what we got was a frustrating fifth frame, for the most part. I’m not ready to give up on him quite yet.
Ryan Yarbrough @ OAK (ND) – 2.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 56 pitches.
Bleeeegh. We didn’t anticipate a long outing given his 2.2 inning rehab start, but I can imagine some still starting “The Fratty Pirate” against the lowly Athletics, and I feel for ya. I really do. I’ll stop feeling sorry if you ignore this and keep holding, though. Gotta draw the line somewhere.
Germán Márquez vs WSH (L) – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 77 pitches.
What, you thought you could predict when Márquez would perform well?
Game of the Day
Matt Brash vs. Justin Verlander – This feels like the last chance for Brash while Verlander aims to get his AGA label. Oh, and Mike Clevinger makes his debut proper after the postponement + Alex Faedo makes his MLB debut. What a day.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
Not a Brewers fan, but feel compelled to speak up after you called them “one of the worst offenses around” in the streamer rankings, and now this reference. Yes, the team batting average is weak at .218 (#25 overall), but they also are tied for seventh in HR (Mahle’s Kryptonite), putting them dead middle of the pack in runs scored at #15. (Presumably that’s the reason the Dave Swan offensive chart you run with the daily streamer pieces puts them in the “fine” category.) Fortunately for Mahle and his fantasy owners, the Pirates don’t pack as much of a punch at #28 in HR and #25 in runs scored.
Nick- I own both Morton and Rogers and not sure what to do. I have good depth so I’m mulling over benching them both for awhile to see how it plays out as there’s nothing on wire with their upside. Very frustrating. Charlie had a rough start to ’21 and look how that turned out, but who knows how long this’ll take if at all… And Rogers? He was pretty darn impressive the first half of ’21 but since then, not so much.. Not sure who he really is?
Morton is 38. Yes he had a slow start last season but it could also be him eventually showing his age. Last season he wasn’t that bad even during his slow start.
I don’t understand why so few considerations for Javier. It was supposed to be a tough matchup against a so-called loaded Seattle offensive. Yet, the kid did a very good job fantasy-wise, once again! At the same time the safe pitcher who is Morton blew another game. It somehow reminds of me last season with Bassitt who wasn’t an AGA but better than some of them such as Nola lol.
LOL at grumpy Nick yelling at Jaden. Nick, I really hope Jaden returns for future appearances.