(Photo by Samuel Stringer/Icon Sportswire)
It’s been a wild season for Reynaldo Lopez who is sporting a 3.94 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 19% K rate after last night’s excellent 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks performance against the Cubs. Didn’t expect a sub 4.00 ERA, did ya? I classified this start as a high risk/reward game as he’s had plenty of starts exceeding 4 ER this year (10 out of 31 starts!) yet he’s strung together six straight starts of 2 ER or fewer, tallying just 5 ER in that time and fanning at least six in each game. Crazy! I’m seeing a heavier reliance on his changeup overall in that time, while last night it wasn’t great and his secondary stuff + fastball were able to take over to help out. His heater has been killing it in these six games, earning a 6.5 pVal despite a -7.5 mark in his 25 games prior. The pitch is stupid good high-and-tight on both sides of the plate and he’s starting to get comfortable with his secondary stuff. Here is your dark horse sleeper for 2019. People will call him too volatile and they are 100% correct. However, it will overlook how Reynaldo has grown through the year and could come out the other end as a refined pitcher now that he has the innings under his belt. If he’s falling past pick 200, you know I want him. His last start of the year is against Cleveland and you may want to let him fly – this was the Cubs here and he’s in a groove. Still high risk/reward, but not as bad as you’d think.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Luis Castillo – 8.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. The man allowed four hits through the first eight, then a single and walk in the 9th got him pulled (Double play got him off the books!) as he concluded a stellar effort against the Marlins. Surprisingly, just nine whiffs overall in his 102 pitches, with 18 called strikes to help along the way. Just 5/31 CSW on changeups is a bit worrisome – another game without the reliance on dominance with the pitch – though 17 BIP + Fouls on it show that it still was effective. Just not dopest of dope. He gets Pittsburgh to end the year and that’s a clear start to me as we begin to speculate his 2019 draft stock. Funny enough, it might be near the same as last year (hovering around pick #100), which doesn’t seem right to me. We’ve seen the volatility now, something that wasn’t clearly apparent last year. The ceiling is still there, though it seems a little more out of reach than last season, and I’ll be giving this a good amount of thought entering my Top 100 Ranks coming out on October 8th. Should be interesting.
Wei-Yin Chen – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Nice to see Chen rebound here as he was considered as a possible discount option. Definitely don’t trust him for 2019 and I’m hesitant to let him fly against the Nats next time.
Liam Hendriks – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. FALSE START. Here we had Chris Bassitt taking over for four frames and…hey wait! I promise this gets more interesting soon.
Connor Sadzeck – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks. FALSE START. Ariel Jurado got the five frames after and a Win, y’all know you don’t want to chase that.
Diego Castillo – 1.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. FALSE START. Okay that’s three straight FS and there’s still more. Here was Jalen Beeks getting three innings that don’t do a single thing for you, except earn the Win since someone had to earn it. There may be something to this for win leagues.
Trevor Bauer – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Told you there would be more. Bauer will probably get 3-4 frames next week and maybe another 4-5 in his tune-up before the playoffs. Meanwhile, Shane Bieber took the brunt of the innings and allowed 6 ER in four, even against a weekend Sawx lineup one day after clinching the AL East. Ouch.
Jacob deGrom – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I’m looking forward to writing his exposé the week after the season ends to talk not only about why he deserves the Cy Young, but also how he’s done it from a pitching perspective. The dude deserves it.
John Gant – 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. I would have gone with Gant if he were 20% owned, but I was lucky as he himself a shaky evening, walking the bases loaded in the third. Yikes. This doesn’t hurt too much but it sure is disappointing.
Eric Lauer – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Hey, Eric survived against the Dodgers! Crazy things y’all, crazy things.
Francisco Liriano – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Liriano himself wanted to prove to Fast that the Royals offense ain’t so tough. But he allowed three extra unearned runs. THAT’S NOT HIS FAULT.
Ivan Nova – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Yeah this is super boring and unhelpful, Nova. Thanks for nothing except for a small help in ERA. Yay.
Nick Pivetta – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Weird to see a boring start from Pivetta, but there it is. Super weird to see three of his last four starts returning just 9 Ks total, while he did earn 14/87 whiffs here as his four-seamer was cruising. I am a little weirded out by 33 breakers equating just 3 whiffs and hopefully he makes a statement in his final game against…the Rockies in Coors? Ugh, nope we done here.
Ian Kennedy – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Look at that, Kennedy has done well in each of his last two starts. Welp, it’s been real, you get the Indians next and that’s a massive pile of NOPE. Streaming Record: 99-48. So close y’all. So close.
German Marquez – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I really wonder where he goes in drafts next year. I have to think higher than he should be even with this absurd second half. I can buy the success of Snell/Corbin/Bauer a bit more as they led up to it more convincingly. Marquez…not as much. I get the feeling that he’s going to be a bit of a disappointment if drafted around the Top 20 starters next year, but is a worthy play if he’s around the 30s. I know that won’t happen and hey, maybe come January I’ll turn into a major Marquez believer, or maybe the 20s is such a minefield that it’ll be in your best interest to chase Marquez’s upside. For now, my instinct has me wary of investment.
Sean Reid-Foley – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. You went with RF for a chance at strikeout upside. What you got was disappointment. Slimy, stinky disappointment.
CC Sabathia – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. CC got the Orioles and save for a blegh 1.50 WHIP, got you a Win, 3.00 ERA, and 5 Ks. That works for me.
Chris Sale – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. The power of Sale is wonderful where he doesn’t even need to go four frames to give you seven strikeouts. Yes, the WHIP and ERA aren’t good, but the low frames makes it a shallow wound. Hopefully he’s let loose in his final start next week.
Ross Stripling – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Stripling hasn’t been trusted by the Dodgers to fly and I wonder where he’ll fall in drafts. I just can’t see myself drafting him in the Top 30 given Dodgeritis and how his success seemed a little too good during his stretch. If he has a rotation spot for the year, I can see him settling around the #25-30th starter. That’s the ideal, and a major question forcing me to lower him. Then again, these ranks are all relative and I need to actually look at the entire pool before I say these kind of things.
Madison Bumgarner – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. A VPQS with 5 Ks. I feel like 5 Ks are the standard for a VPQS, can I add a K at the end if we get it? Ehhh that might be overkill. Anyway, I’m not the biggest fan of Bumgarner and seeing him in the TOp 70 overall picks just seems wrong to me. His ceiling is far from what it used to be and you might get a decent amount of starts like these. He might be the next Jake Arrieta. Gasp.
Jhoulys Chacin – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Chacin, you’ve been a decent play all year, now you give us one strikeout? HAISTFMFWT?! I mean, I get it, you’re a Toby but come on man, not now.
Gerrit Cole – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Yes with 3 ER, the rest is dope. Enjoy the Gallows Pole at 20 whiffs.
Zack Greinke – 7.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Not as dope as Cole but still dope. You know it’s true.
Joe Ross – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. I’ll certianly take a VPQS from Ross in his second start back from the DL. A super sleeper for 2019, but I wouldn’t put any chips on him actually expressing his upside constantly. It’s possible and he has that ceiling, as far as his reach is from it, which separates him from a good amount of the fodder way lost at the bottom of deeper league drafts.
Julio Teheran – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Ahhhhh right, that’s why we hate Teheran.
Jose Berrios – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. At least he gave you eight strikeouts? Man, I wonder where Berrios goes next year. He’s shown both sides of the spectrum this year and we may be forgetting that he’s still under 25 years old. There’s room to grow and I may find myself investing banking on that growth as his upside may be a major step up from others going around him. *Suit man whispers in my ear.* Seriously? 95 ADP in early mocks? WHAT IS THIS.
Jose Quintana – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. Nice to see the Ks, terrible to see the rest. He’s been cruising lately and it’s sad to see the step back, but that’s what a longball and getting Singled Out does. 15 whiffs is still pretty impressive.
Erasmo Ramirez – 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Well yeah, it’s Erasmo.
Andrew Heaney – 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Heaney got the Astros and it was all kinds of a disappointing outing. A sneaky play next time out against the Rangers if he’s dropped after this as he could excel against a weak lineup.
Yefry Ramírez – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Poor Yefry. It’s possible he figures it out one day, but today is not that day.
Zach Davies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Few options under the 20% threshold here, so I’ll go with Davies still who was pushed from his Friday start.
Erick Fedde vs. New York Mets – I don’t want to trust the Feddes. I really don’t. But there’s nothing sub 20% else to chase here save for Trevor Richards against the Reds and I’m not loving his current state either. At least Fedde has 22 Ks in his last three games.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Framber Valdez vs. Toronto Blue Jays – He has it in him to succeed in Toronto. Other options include Felix Pena against the Rangers and Sandy Alcantara against the Nationals. Not a bad way to start off your week.
Game of the Day
Mike Clevinger vs. Rick Porcello – I love watching Clevinger pitch + let’s see if The Thief can hold it together.
Why does degrom deserve the cy young over scherzer? I think it is highly debatable and you can make a very coherent case for max.
deGrom. Close and both have arguments, but deGrom has been as close to perfect as you can be. And when comparing two guys this close, any mistep counts tremendously. Scherzer has 2 non-QS efforts recently. Hard to find any flaw or mistep at all for deBomb all season. So if wins matter to you (which to me don’t) for cy young, then give the cy young to scherthang with a nod to his offense. If not, deGrom easily walks away with it for a pretty much perfect pitching season.
Nova got hosed by rain last night… Looks like you may have missed that. A win and qs looked likely before the delay.
Given his short innings limit next week (though he might have two starts), would you drop Bauer?
And how would you rank for next week? (I listed with their opponents wOBA+handedness+since August 1st):
Ryu @ SF, .230
Heaney vs TEX, .256
L Castillo vs PIT, .297
Matz vs MIA, .318
R Lopez vs CLE .338
Has Marquez earned a $10 keeper value on 15 team H2H $250 budget league at this point?
How would you rank the following pitcher’s matchups?
Wade LeBlanc vs Tex (Sun), Pena vs Tex (Mon) or Montgomery vs Sea (Mon)