Top Pitching Prospects For Fantasy Baseball 2024

Lyon Richardson, RHP (MLB, 6′ 2″, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2023	A/AA/AAA	6.91	3.50	1.28	34.5%	13.1%	15.2%
2023	MLB Stats	18.2	8.64	1.92	14.8%	18.5%	6.3%

 

Overview: Richardson made his Major League debut this past season making four starts for Cincinnati. He struggled with an 8.64 ERA in 16.1 innings. Major League batters demolished his fastball making it clear that he will need to work on refining his breaking stuff if he ever wants to have sustained success at the Big-League level.

Four-Seamer: The velocity on Richardson’s fastball is nice to see. He consistently sits in the upper 90s and loves to work it up in the zone. The issue for him has been an inability to consistently locate the pitch. He leaves far too many out over the middle of the zone and Major League hitters did serious damage off of it last season.

Changeup: This is the pitch Richardson feels most comfortable throwing. Unlike most pitchers, he will throw this to both righties and lefties in just about any count. He gets nearly 15 inches of horizontal movement on the pitch helping fool hitters. This is his best pitch and an above-average one for sure.

Sinker: Richardson mixes in a sinker against right-handed batters to help keep the ball in the park. He throws it hard and relying on this more could help improve his numbers.

Curveball: In a small sample size, Richardson’s control of the curveball looked terrible. He left way too many out over the zone which was a similar issue to the Minor Leagues. The pitch is a decent strikeout pitch, but the mistakes outweigh the successes.

Biggest Concern: Will Richardson be able to reduce his reliance on the fastball? That could be the key to getting him back to his Minor League numbers. He also needs to improve his command if he wants to throw enough strikes to stick.

Conclusion: Fastball/changeup guys do not have a strong track record of working out at the Major League level. This combined with his suspect ability to throw strikes could land Richardson in the bullpen long-term. His high strikeout rates throughout the Minor Leagues put him in streamer territory entering 2024.

ETA: April 2024

 

Connor Phillips, RHP (MLB, 6′ 2″, 22)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2023	AA/AAA	105.0	3.86	1.41	33.3%	12.3%	12.6%
2023	MLB Stats	20.2	6.97	1.50	27.1%	13.5%	9.2%

Overview: Another Reds prospect who debuted in 2023, Phillips had slightly better results than Richardson. The former Mariners’ prospect posted a 6.97 ERA in 20.2 innings although he was able to strikeout 27.1% of the batters he faced. Big velocity and a plus-breaking pitch offer an intriguing long-term outlook if Phillips can keep his control in check.

Four-Seamer: If you are facing Phillips, you know you are going to get a ton of fastballs. The pitch sits in the upper 90s with good IVB, so you cannot blame him too much for loving it. That being said, the usage is too high, and right-handed batters at the Major League level absolutely crushed it. The metrics of the pitch are good, but he needs to adjust his approach for his four-seam to have success against this tougher competition.

Slider: Phillips’ slider is a sweeper and it is a good one. He throws it between 83 and 85 mph with over 12 inches of sweep. He gets whiffs against both lefties and righties and can paint it over the corners with ease. This is a plus offering and one that could become even better as he matures.

Curveball: He uses the curveball almost exclusively on left-handed batters. He struggled at both the Major League level and in Triple-A to generate swings-and-misses with it and this looks like it will be a disappointing pitch compared to its 60 FV grade on FanGraphs.

Biggest Concern: Phillips is primarily a tw0-pitch pitcher. He mixes in an occasional curveball and has a changeup (which was not even mentioned here due to lack of use), but he is really just a fastball/slider guy. We have seen this work for Spencer Strider, but I am not sure putting Phillips in that category is fair to Strider.

Conclusion: Two plus offering is always an encouraging start. The velocity on the fastball is great, but he needs more than just his sweeper to generate whiffs. Phillips could find himself in a high-leverage bullpen role as early as 2024 if the Reds do not want to continue pushing him as a starter.

ETA: April 2024

 

Chase Petty, RHP (Double-A, 6′ 1″, 20)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A/A+	98.1	3.48	1.17	23.7%	7.7%	14.2%
2023	A+/AA	68.0	1.72	1.15	24.1%	5.5%	13.4%

 

Overview: The 26th overall pick from 2021 came on strong in his first full season with the Reds and 2023 was more of the same. Petty was seemingly on cruise control all season allowing more than two runs just twice across 18 starts. His three-pitch mix comes with excellent location and there is reason to believe he could see his strikeout rate jump up based on the pedigree of his stuff. There is a lot of talent here that could push Petty quickly through the Minor Leagues.

Four-Seamer: He has not maintained the same velocity he did in high school, but the results have been better. MLB.com refers to this as Petty becoming a more complete pitcher, but his fastball now sits 92-95. He has excellent control over this pitch and can locate it to all parts of the zone. Now, imagine if his velocity jumps back up to where it was when he was in high school.

Slider: The feel on this pitch can be inconsistent, but when he is on there are few sliders that are better. Some looks make this pitch look more like a gyro and others are more sweeper-esque. This could be intentional as Petty might be working two different sliders. This is a plus pitch with the potential for more if he can be more consistent with it.

Splitter: Although most sites have Petty’s third pitch listed as a changeup, the looks I have seen make it look more like a splitter. Sitting in the upper-80s, the pitch has a ton of vertical movement and appears to have replaced Petty’s changeup. He throws it primarily to lefties and this pitch has much more potential than his changeup.

Biggest Concern: So far, Petty has failed to post a strikeout rate that excites dynasty managers. The control is excellent and he has been able to limit hard contact, but to be a reliable fantasy asset, strikeouts are important. If they never come, this will limit Petty’s ceiling.

Conclusion: Petty has all of the tools necessary to be a reliable Major League starter. The control is excellent, he has developed a third pitch to expand his arsenal, and he has been extremely successful at keeping the ball in the yard. Right now, he projects as a back-end starter with the upside for much more. If everything clicks next season, there is no reason to believe we will not see him make his Major League debut.

ETA: September 2024

 

Julian Aguiar, RHP (Double-A, 6′ 3″, 22)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A/A+	96.1	3.46	1.21	27.6%	6.6%	12.8%
2023	A+/AA	125.0		1.10	26.8%	7.2%	13.6%

Overview: Nobody blinked when the Reds took Aguiar in the 12th round of the 2021 draft. Since being drafted, he has looked like a dominant force on the mound. A strong reliance on two fastballs along with a solid arsenal of secondary offerings provide Aguiar with a deep pocket of offerings to choose from. A breakout 2023 campaign could be just the start of big things to come.

Four-Seamer: His four-seam can touch as high as 97 according to reports although his real money pitch is the sinker (more on that to come). His lower arm slot creates good rising action on the pitch which profiles as a plus offering long-term.

Curveball: The shape of Aguiar’s curveball is short of a 12-6, but it comes with a significant drop. He sits 76-82 with the pitch and effectively uses it to get whiffs against lefties. This profiles as an average pitch.

Slider: MLB.com stated that the development of his breaking pitches was the key to him taking the next step. Aguiar’s slider looked excellent this season. The pitch features sweep action but is not a true sweeper. He loses the feel of it occasionally, but this is his primary out-pitch for righties.

Changeup: Aguiar gets an impressive amount of drop on his changeup. This is more than just a fourth-pitch for Aguiar who controls the pitch well and can throw it to both lefties and righties.

Sinker: Aguiar’s sinker is the reason he is able to keep the ball on the ground so often. His ability to control the pitch toward the bottom of the zone is exactly what you want. He sits 92-94 with it getting good run in on right-handed batters as well.

Biggest Concern: Holding velocity on his fastball is the biggest question mark. Considering that Aguiar did not start pitching full-time until JuCo, there is reason to believe this will come with time.

Conclusion: There are more green flags than red when it comes to Aguiar. Deep arsenals with the ability to throw strikes are a rare combination Aguiar has already shown the ability to work deep into games and stay healthy for an entire season. He is a strong pick to continue breaking out in 2024 and make his Major League debut.

ETA: July 2024

 

Levi Stoudt, RHP (MLB, 6′ 3″, 25)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2023	AAA	82.1	6.23	1.66	15.1%	13.0%	10.7%
2023	MLB Stats	10.1	9.58	2.32	16.4%	14.5%	8.0%

 

Overview: The third prospect on this list who has already made his Major League debut. Stoudt’s went about as poorly as the other two did as he posted a 9.58 ERA in 10.1 innings of work. The control that caused issues for Stoudt in the Minor Leagues showed up in the Major Leagues as he walked 14.5% of batters he faced. The stuff looked underwhelming and it is fair to wonder if there is much potential in his profile.

Four-Seamer: Stoudt’s fastball gets over 16″ of IVB sitting around 94 mph. Despite this, he has struggled to generate much of any whiffs on the pitch against tougher competition. The pitch profiles to come out as below-average and get roughed up in his first taste against Major League hitters.

Curveball: A distant third pitch, Stoudt gets a lot of vertical drop through his curveball although he has not had much of any success with it. He threw 21 of them at the Major League level and did not generate a single whiff.

Slider: This is Stoudt’s best pitch and his most used secondary. He sits in the mid-80s throwing it in any count against right-handed batters. The slider tunnels nicely with his four-seam which allows the pitch to perform even better.

Changeup: He uses the changeup almost exclusively against lefties. He throws it between 81-84 with significant break down and away. The pitch could be a plus offering if he can command it enough to throw it to righties along with lefties.

Biggest Concern: The biggest concern is the inability to effectively locate pitches on the corners. Not only did Stoudt struggle with walks, but he also struggled to keep pitches out of the heart of the strike zone. This is not a recipe for success at the Major League level.

Conclusion: Despite having the pedigree of a third-round draft pick, there is not much upside from a fantasy perspective here. His fastball lacks the velocity or spin to be an impact pitch and he lacks the control of his secondaries for them to work effectively. He will likely make appearances throughout 2024, but should not be on fantasy radars.

ETA: May 2024

Ben Brown, RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 6″, 24)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+/AA	104.0	3.37	1.17	34.3%	8.3%	15.6%
2023	AA/AAA	92.2	4.27	1.40	32.6%	14.3%	15.9%

Overview: Ben Brown is a former 33rd-round draft pick by the Phillies that really did not jump onto dynasty manager’s radars until 2022. Injuries derailed much of his early career, but he finally seemed to get back on track. The Phillies traded him to the Cubs where he has done nothing but impress. He dominated Double-A for parts of two seasons with high strikeout numbers before making it to Triple-A. Seeing Brown in the Major Leagues next season feels inevitable.

Four-Seamer: Brown loves to throw his four-seam fastball and the velocity on it is great. He touches as high as 98 with it and sits around 97 for the first few innings before the velocity tapers off a bit. He overthrows the pitch at times leaving it over the middle which can get him in trouble. The metrics on the pitch are excellent, the only thing left is to refine the control on it.

Slider: Brown throws two different variations on his slider. The sweeper variation is newer and one that Brown struggles to throw for strikes. His gyro is more effective and works better against lefties. The gyro part is a plus pitch while the sweeper has plus potential but needs some work.

Changeup: The changeup is not a pitch Brown throws often and in fact, it is a pitch he did not throw the entire final month of the season. While in Triple-A, he only threw the pitch in the zone 23.5% of the time which is not what you are looking for.

Cutter: Every now and then, Brown mixes in a cutter. He had success with this pitch in Triple-A last season although it is another one where the control could use improvements. He averages 88 mph on the pitch which helps keep batters off both his four-seam and slider.

Biggest Concern: Brown’s walk rate skyrocketed once he got to Triple-A. His tall 6’6″ stature and lanky delivery create some concern over his ability to consistently repeat his motion and throw enough strikes.

Conclusion: Brown fits the mold of everything to look for in a pitching prospect. High strikeout rates, good velocity, impressive movement, and a variation of secondary offerings to keep hitters off balance. The control issues are a major concern as Brown approaches the Major Leagues but he has the talent to be a strong fantasy asset. He is already on the 40-man roster so we will see him early on next season.

ETA: May 2024

 

Caleb Kilian, RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 4″, 26)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2023	AAA	120.1	4.56	1.32	18.6%	7.0%	9.2%
2023	MLB Stats	5.1	16.88	2.81	15.2%	6.1%	7.6%

 

Overview: A high-profile prospect who came to the Cubs in the Kris Bryant trade, Kilian has never been able to put things together in Chicago. His control, which was once elite in the lower levels, has taken a massive step backward against tougher competition and he has struggled to look like a Major League pitcher in two separate stints. None of Kilian’s three different fastball variations have worked against Major League batters and a shift to the bullpen might be necessary.

Four-Seamer: Kilian’s extension helps his four-seam fastball play up beyond its 94 mph average velocity. He likes to use this pitch down in the zone although Major League hitters did significant damage off it in 2023.

Curveball: His curve is primarily used against left-handed hitters sitting in the upper-70s. He gets significant vertical drop on the pitch although he does not get a ton of whiffs on it. This pitch is not a plus pitch, but rather somewhere around average.

Slider: Kilian’s slider/sweeper is more of a work in progress. He does not get as much sweep on it as some others do, but he did show a willingness to rely on it more as the Minor League season went along. This pitch profiles to be close to average.

Fastball Variations: He also throws both a sinker and a cutter. The sinker is thrown as hard as his four-seam fastball and shows a strong ability to keep the ball on the ground. This could be a strong offering for him. The cutter is used primarily against lefties sitting around 88 mph.

Biggest Concern: The lack of a put-away pitch is what scares me the most. Kilian is working to develop his sweeper, but without it, he relies heavily on fastballs that Major League hitters have already proven they can do damage on.

Conclusion: The deep arsenal here is enough to warrant intrigue. However, without the secondaries to generate whiffs, Kilian’s fantasy ceiling and real-life ceiling are capped. The Cubs will undoubtedly give him another chance in 2024 and the biggest thing fantasy managers should watch for is the development of his sweeper.

ETA: April 2024

 

Cade Horton, RHP (Double-A, 6′ 1″, 22)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	DNP	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2023	A/A+/AA	88.1	2.65	1.00	33.5%	7.7%	17.5%

Overview: To say that Horton dominated his first professional season would be an understatement. There is no second guessing why the Cubs selected Horton seventh overall as he looked untouchable at three different levels of the Minor Leagues. When you factor in that Horton did not even really start focusing solely on baseball until he was drafted, there is reason to believe he has the chance to keep getting better and better.

Four-Seamer: With excellent control and velocity, this is a plus pitch. He can locate it to all areas of the zone and blows it right past hitters. He has shown an ability to maintain his velocity through starts and should continue to find success with this pitch as he advances through the Minor Leagues.

Curveball: The curveball is not something Horton throws very often. According to FanGraphs, opposing batters have struggled to hit the pitch, but I was not able to find very many looks at it. The pitch sits in the mid-80s and is graded at a FV of 55.

Slider: This is Horton’s money pitch. He will throw it in any count, to any batter, in any location. He has excellent feel for the gyro slider which consistently sits around 86 mph. This is a plus offering and a primary reason why he posted such a high strikeout rate in his first season.

Changeup: The changeup looked solid from the looks I got. he sat between 86-88 with it and got good downward sink and cut on the pitch. MLB.com writes that Horton has struggled to throw the pitch for strikes although I believe the pitch looked to have plus potential.

Biggest Concern: Horton has already had Tommy John surgery once and his 88.1 innings pitched was a career high both professionally and collegiately. We still have to see how his arm and stuff holds up over a full starter’s workload.

Conclusion: The stuff in Horton’s arsenal puts him in consideration for the best pitching prospect in baseball. He has exceptional control of four pitches with excellent metrics to back them up. Considering how aggressive Chicago was with promoting him throughout the Minor Leagues last season, we could see him up next year. If this is the case, he needs to be added by fantasy managers based on upside alone. Durability is the only question mark left after just one season of professional ball.

ETA: August 2024

 

Jordan Wicks, LHP (MLB, 6′ 3″, 24)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2023	AA/AAA	91.1	3.55	1.17	26.5%	8.6%	13.2%
2023	MLB Stats	34.2	4.41	1.27	16.3%	7.5%	9.9%

 

Overview: We got a chance to see Wicks find success at the Major League level in 2023. The young lefty made seven starts for the Cubs with a solid 4.41 ERA. As with most soft-tossing lefties, his strikeout rate has dipped since reaching Triple-A, but his strong command and control provide a stable floor for a starting pitcher. He profiles as a back-end starter with streaming potential.

Four-Seamer: The four-seam was not Wicks’ friend in his Major League debut. He showed poor command of the pitch leaving 92 mph over the heart of the zone far too frequently. This profiles as a below-average pitch and one I would want Wicks to drop completely if I had him on my dynasty team.

Curveball: He does not throw the curveball much, but found good success with it last season. He gets good movement on it to attack right-handed batters. This looks like it could be a plus offering if he can gain more of a consistent feel for it.

Slider: His slider sits a few mph faster than his curveball. Although FanGraphs grades this as an above-average pitch, the control on it in his first Major League stint looked shaky. The pitch gets flat at times and hangs over the middle of the zone. I think this is closer to average at its best.

Changeup: The whippy arm action that Wicks gets on his changeup helps create deception. He only throws it about 81 mph, but it feels like it is coming in harder. This is the pitch he has most control over and that he is most comfortable throwing in any count. This is a plus pitch even if it is his only one.

Fastball Variations: The cutter and sinker are the two pitches I would want Wicks to throw more. His sinker showed an effectiveness in keeping the ball on the ground and he looked to control it well. The cutter could use some work, but it has a better chance to keep batters off balance than his low-velocity four-seamer.

Biggest Concern: The hardest pitch that Wicks throws averages 92.1 mph. We have already seen his strikeout rate dip to 16.3% at the Major League level which speaks to his lack of upside as a fantasy starter.

Conclusion: Wicks is the perfect streaming option for fantasy managers in 2024. If he is facing a team that struggles against lefties or to hit lower velocity, he could be a valuable add. He has shown the ability to work deep into games and an increased reliance on his curveball could help him add more value. He is not somebody worth drafting, but certainly a name fantasy players should know.

ETA: April 2024

 

Kohl Franklin, RHP (Double-A, 6′ 4″, 24)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+	69.1	6.88	1.63	23.1%	12.7%	13.8%
2023	A+/AA	105.0	5.40	1.46	24.9%	10.8%	15.2%

 

Overview: After missing the entire 2021 season due to injury and struggling throughout 2022, Franklin finally seems to be back on track. He has tweaked his slider while increasing his fastball velocity to create an intriguing profile. The numbers after his Double-A promotion do not scream potential, but there is a lot to like once you dig deeper.

Four-Seamer: The fastball projection is perhaps the most exciting part of Franklin’s profile. His four-seam sits 95/96 for the most part, but he has shown flashes of getting up to triple-digits at times. The pitch has plenty of arm-side run and profiles as a plus offering.

Curveball: This is a big bender with 12:6 action. His arm motion is consistent with that of his fastball, but then the slow breaker drops out of the zone getting plenty of whiffs. This is my favorite breaking pitch of Franklin’s.

Slider: Franklin’s slider is an average pitch on its best days. The pitch gets flat at times and is not one that he has constant control over.

Changeup: This is what many believe to be his best secondary offering. This pitch is extremely effective at keeping lefties off balance and is graded a 60 FV by FanGraphs.

Biggest Concern: Franklin got off to a fast start this past season, but struggled down the stretch. He has never thrown more than 105 innings in a season and you have to wonder if his stuff is better in short spurts rather than in a starter’s role.

Conclusion: Franklin is still a work in progress. However, changes to his wind-up, his slider, and increased velocity on his fastball create a lot to look forward to in 2024. There is already a solid base here and if Franklin can develop consistency, we could see him breakout next season. There is more here than meets the eye and we could see him move fast next season.

ETA: August 2024

Jared Jones, RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 1″, 22)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+	122.2	4.62	1.35	26.7%	9.6%	13.4%
2023	AA/AAA	126.1	3.85	1.23	27.6%	9.5%	14.7%

Overview: The ball explodes out of Jones’s hand as his short arm action whips through the zone and attacks batters. Meanwhile, his glove hand extends out toward the hitter which is undoubtedly a distraction. The former second-round pick has put up strong numbers throughout the Minor Leagues and is on pace to debut in 2024. His strikeout numbers appear sustainable and there is reason to be excited about this Pirates’ pitching prospect.

Four-Seamer: Although his four-seam does not have as much IVB as other prospects, the pitch comes with excellent velocity and arm-side run. As mentioned before, the ball appears to explode out of his hands and eats right-handed batters alive. This is a plus offering and a solid foundation for the rest of his arsenal.

Curveball: The curveball is not Jones’ most consistent pitch, but it is one that he relies on to attack left-handed batters. The pitch tunnels nicely with his slider and adds extra vertical drop at the end. This is an average pitch although it could improve with more consistency.

Slider: This is the out pitch for Jones. Sitting around 89 mph, the pitch takes on a gyro shape over a sweeper shape. He has excellent control of the pitch keeping it on the corners and generates plenty of swings-and-misses with it. This is a plus offering for Jones.

Changeup: An underrated pitch in Jones’ arsenal that could become a plus offering. Jones gets a ton of sink and movement on the pitch making it extremely difficult for lefties to hit. However, unlike his slider, he does not have the best command over it which can lead to some mistakes.

Biggest Concern: Consistent control. The stuff is there for Jones to be a 2/3 starter for the Pirates. His walk rates have fluctuated throughout the Minor Leagues and he walked at least four batters in four games last season. This will need to improve at the Major League level.

Conclusion: Jones is the most Major League-ready arm in Pittsburgh’s system and has the potential to be an impact pitcher from a fantasy perspective. His fastball/slider combination is strong and his other secondaries have potential for improvement. This is somebody to keep on your radars during draft season.

ETA: May 2024

 

Mike Burrows, RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 1″, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	AA/AAA	94.1	4.01	1.21	28.1%	7.9%	12.8%
2023	AAA	6.2	2.70	0.90	12.0%	8.0%	8.7%

 

Overview: Entering 2023, there was a decent amount of hype surrounding Burrows. He had moved slowly and steadily through Pittsburgh’s system since being drafted back in 2018 and was coming off back-to-back solid seasons. His Stuff+ graded strongly amongst Triple-A pitchers early this season before Tommy John’s surgery ended his season after just two starts.

Four-Seamer: The IVB is what instantly sticks out on this pitch. With over 20″ of it and strong over-the-top extension, Burrows’ fastball has all the looks of a plus pitch. He uses it a lot(sometimes too much), but it is an excellent starting point for his repertoire.

Curveball: The big breaker is the go-to out pitch against lefties. Sitting at 80 mph, the speed and spin on the pitch help it to play up and pair nicely with his slider which he has started to rely on more. This profiles as an above-average pitch.

Slider: In contrast to the curve, this is how Burrows likes to attack righties. The pitch does not have as much movement as the curve, but it still profiles as a fringe-plus offering. He needs to work on commanding it a little bit better and keeping it down in the zone.

Changeup: One thing that the scouts over at FanGraphs were really excited about was his changeup. The usage was going up, and his whiff rate was strong. Sitting around 87 with a ton of both vertical and horizontal break, this is another plus offering and a strong tool to keep lefties off balance.

Biggest Concern: Consistent control. The stuff is there for Jones to be a 2/3 starter for the Pirates. His walk rates have fluctuated throughout the Minor Leagues and he walked at least four batters in four games last season. This will need to improve at the Major League level.

Conclusion: Jones is the most Major League-ready arm in Pittsburgh’s system and has the potential to be an impact pitcher from a fantasy perspective. His fastball/slider combination is strong and his other secondaries have potential for improvement. This is somebody to keep on your radars during draft season.

ETA: May 2024

 

Sean Sullivan, RHP (Double-A, 6′ 1″, 23)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+	75.0	4.68	1.36	25.8%	8.3%	11.6%
2023	AA	113.2	3.88	1.27	20.4%	8.0%	9.6%

 

Overview: The eighth-round selection from 2021 is proving that he is capable of handling a starter’s workload. Across his final eight appearances in 2023, Sullivan averaged over 5.5 innings. He is not the flashiest pitching prospect, but improving control with a solid four-pitch mix could help him take on responsibilities as a back-end starter.

Four-Seamer: From what I have read, Sullivan’s four-seamer sits in the low-90s. FanGraphs has the pitch graded as a 50 FV most of which I believe to stem from his control. His lower arm slot should help give the pitch a rising feel although I am not sure how effective it will be at this velocity.

Slider: FanGraphs likes Sullivan’s slider giving it a 55 FV. They claim the pitch sits in the low 80s with sweeping action. This appears to be his go-to pitch once he gets to two strikes.

Changeup: This appears to be Sullivan’s best pitch visually. His fast arm motion helps create deception on a pitch that routinely sits in the lower-80s. He gets good cut in on right-handed batters and appears to have strong control over this.

Biggest Concern: His unique arm slot and rushed windup could create some issues for Sullivan’s control. He managed to lower his walk rate from 2022 to 2023, but I am skeptical he will be able to sustain these improvements.

Conclusion: A unique delivery and four-pitch mix creates some level of intrigue when it comes to his profile. However, without a true out pitch or any overwhelming pitches, his likely role will be as a swingman.

ETA: September 2024

 

Paul Skenes, RHP (Double-A, 6′ 6″, 21)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	DNP	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2023	CPX/A/AA	6.2	5.40	1.05	35.7%	7.1%	16.5%

Overview: Everybody knows who Skenes is. If you somehow, he was the number one overall pick from this past year’s draft. Those around baseball have crowned him the best draft pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. Skenes was dominant en route to winning a National Championship at LSU and made it all of the way to Double-A already. Coming out of college, it is likely Skenes will continue to move quickly and could become an ace in Pittsburgh.

Four-Seamer: Nobody scoffs at the velocity of his four-seam fastball. This pitch routinely sits around 97 mph and can break triple-digits at times. The issue that people have is the IVB. In the one start we were able to get data from, he averaged just 11″ on this pitch which is not typically ideal for most pitchers. That said, his command on the pitch is excellent and the concern should not be blown out of proportion, this is still a plus pitch.

Curveball: Skenes originally had two different types of sliders, but he has turned the gyro into a curveball. You can see how this pitch used to be a slider as it relies more on horizontal break than vertical break. Sitting around 84 mph, you can classify the pitch however you want. This is an average pitch that could continue to get better with refinement.

Slider: The bread-and-butter out-pitch for Skenes. As mentioned before, he previously threw two variations before transitioning fully to the sweeper. The movement that Skenes gets on the pitch is nasty. He has complete control of it and will throw it to both righties and lefties. This is a plus-plus pitch.

Changeup: Skenes has spoken about his comfort relying on his changeup although it is not as effective as his slider. The pitch sits right around 90 mph and is a strong pitch to attack lefties with. This pitch profiles slightly above average.

Biggest Concern: The low IVB on his four-seam fastball is the only thing that scouts could criticize during the draft process. This could impact the pitch’s ability to play at the top of the strike zone and lead to high home run totals.

Conclusion: Skenes could become an ace as soon as next season. He has already an elite 1/2 combination of his fastball and slider and his curve and changeup are continuing to get better. Few pitchers get drafted at the 1.01 and the Pirates’ willingness to take Skenes speaks to his upside and potential. He should be on radars in 2024 based on upside alone.

ETA: August 2024

 

Anthony Solometo, LHP (Double-A, 6′ 5″, 20)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A	47.2	2.64	1.05	27.1%	10.1%	13.1%
2023	A+/AA	110.1	3.26	1.19	26.2%	8.6%	14.1%

 

Overview: Funky is the best way to describe Solometo. The Pirates took him 37th overall in the 2021 draft despite the fact he barely touched 90 mph on his fastball. He starts by shifting almost entirely from one side of the rubber to the other with a big leg kick and a roundabout arm motion. He has put up solid numbers so far in his Minor League career and the hope is that with continued development he could turn into an effective Major League starter.

Four-Seamer: We are used to seeing right-handed starters throw their fastball with significant run in on right-handed batters. Well, Solometo’s does the same thing in reverse. The fastball only averages around 91-92(which is an improvement from when he was drafted) and cuts in against lefties. Despite the velocity, FanGraph’s 35 FV rating feels too low.

Slider: Both FanGraphs and MLB.com refer to Solometo’s slider as cutter-esque. The pitch sits around 84 mph and has more horizontal action compared to dive like a typical slider. One concern is how righties can attack and see the pitch even though righties struggled against him last season.

Changeup: The changeup has been a work in progress since being drafted. Despite mediocre velocity on his fastball, his changeup still sits around 86 mph. FanGraphs believes that generating more movement on this could help unlock more potential in his game. From the limited looks I have seen, the pitch appears to have plus potential as he continues to use it more.

Biggest Concern: How will his stuff play against tougher competition? Opposing batters in the lower levels of the Minor Leagues are easier to fool. We already saw his strikeout rate dip after a promotion to Double-A which could be a sign of things to come.

Conclusion: With a delivery like Solometo’s the path to success is easy to figure out. He has shown flashes of increased velocity and if he can even just manage to throw 94-95 consistently, he has middle-of-the-rotation upside. The likelihood of Solometo debuting next season is low, but if everything clicks he has the upside that could make him worth watching.

ETA: September 2024

Robert Gasser, LHP (Double-A, 6′ 0″, 24)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A+/AA/AAA	137.0	3.94	1.30	29.7%	9.0%	14.2%
2023	AAA	135.1	3.79	1.28	28.0%	8.4%	11.8%

Overview: Since coming to Milwaukee at the 2022 Trade Deadline, Gasser has looked impressive at the upper levels of the Minor Leagues. The former 71st overall pick has posted strong strikeout rates throughout his professional career thanks in part to a deep arsenal of pitches that he uses to keep batters off balance.

Four-Seamer: A low arm slot provides some deception on this pitch, although the velocity is nothing to write home about. He sits in the low 90s with strong command on the offering.

Slider: His slider is a big sweeper. With over 15 inches of horizontal break on it, the pitch is lethal to left-handed batters. This is his go-to secondary offering.

Changeup: Gasser uses this pitch to help attack right-handed batters. This and his sinker tunnel well and he gets more horizontal break than most on his changeup.

Fastball Variation: Gasser also mixes in a cutter and sinker to help keep batters off balance. He is definitely more comfortable commanding his cutter and likes to run it in on right-handed batters. This pitch sits 87-89 on the gun and is another pitch Gasser commands well.

Biggest Concern: Righties had significantly more success against Gasser than lefties. he did not surrender a single home run against lefties while allowing 12 to righties. This will need to be fixed if Gasser is to become a reliable asset.

Conclusion: Gasser is likely to make his Major League debut after pitching the entire season in Triple-A. Based on his struggles against righties and lack of fastball velocity, he likely fits in as more of a fantasy streamer than a draftable asset.

ETA: May 2024

 

Ethan Small, LHP (Triple-A, 6′ 4″, 26)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2023	AAA	51.0	3.18	1.25	28.5%	11.2%	11.3%
2023	MLB Stats	4.0	11.25	2.75	26.1%	8.7%	13.2%

 

Overview: A once-promising arm in Milwaukee’s system, Small is now 26 years old. The experiment to keep him as a starter has already failed and the best-case scenario is Small developing into a high-leverage bullpen arm.

Four-Seamer: Good extension helps this pitch play up beyond its metrics although he has still struggled to post consistent results. He sits around 92 with good IVB. The reliance on it 60+% of the time though is concerning.

Changeup: Small has excellent command of his changeup and generates plenty of whiffs. This is a plus-pitch moving forward.

Biggest Concern: Small is a two-pitch guy who relies heavily on a below-average fastball. Without a slider, Small profiles to struggle to post consistent results at the Major League level.

Conclusion: Small has already made the transition to the bullpen and does not have the stuff to fulfill a high-leverage role. He is not somebody that needs to be on fantasy radars for 2024.

ETA: May 2024

 

Jacob Misiorowski, RHP (Double-A, 6′ 7″, 21)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A	1.2	5.40	4.80	21.4%	50.0%	8.1%
2023	A/A+/AA	71.1	3.41	1.18	35.0%	13.4%	15.8%

Overview: The hype train has officially left the station for Misiorowski. After his Future’s Game performance, the book is out on the lanky right-hander with incredible stuff. Control will be key to unlocking his ace potential.

Four-Seamer: His four-seamer consistently sits in the upper 90s and can easily top 100. He gets big-time arm-side run-in on right-handed batters and loves to work the top of the zone.

Cutter: I have not seen much of his cutter, but MLB.com cites that the pitch sits in the low 90s with sharp break on it. This could help give him another offering to run in on left-handed batters.

Slider: His slider is filthy. The issue is throwing this pitch consistently for strikes. The pitch sits around 87 mph and is definitely a plus offering already.

Curveball: His curveball is still a work in progress, but could be almost as good as his slider. The pitch gets excellent depth and is another pitch that profiles to get plenty of swings-and-misses.

Changeup: MLB.com gives this pitch a FV of 45. After not throwing it in much, Misiorowski is trying to develop this to help him get left-handed batters out.

Biggest Concern: The inability to consistently throw strikes has already hurt him. He has posted high walk rates at every level of the Minor Leagues. As good as his stuff is, it means nothing if batters are unwilling to swing.

Conclusion: Misiorowski is a high-variance prospect. He has the ceiling to be an ace with the floor to struggle in a bullpen role. The arsenal is deep providing a bit of safety, but he will need to work on his control if he is ever going to be a reliable fantasy asset.

ETA: July 2024

 

Carlos F. Rodriguez RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 0″, 21)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	A/A+	107.2	3.01	1.06	30.1%	9.3%	15.9%
2023	AA/AAA	128.1	2.88	1.12	29.3%	10.6%	14.7%

 

Overview: Rodriguez has moved quickly through Milwaukee’s system. He has found success at every level he has played while showing off an impressive arsenal of pitches. His size may scare some scouts away, but it is difficult to argue with his on-field results.

Four-Seamer: The velocity on this pitch is underwhelming. He has shown the ability to touch 95 but consistently sits closer to 91. He commands this pitch well which will be essential to his continued success.

Cutter: His cutter works to keep batters off of his slider. The pitch sits a few ticks slower than his four-seamer and profiles as an average offering.

Slider: Short of a true sweeper, his slider sits in the low-80s. Soft for a slider, he is able to keep batters off balance although I worry about what hitters can do if they see this pitch multiple times.

Curveball: His slider and curveball sometimes are difficult to differentiate. The curve gets more vertical break although it runs flat at times. This is a fringe-average pitch.

Changeup: Everybody who watches Rodriguez agrees that the changeup is his best offering. The pitch disappears with an excellent late fade that makes hitters swing right over the top of it. This is a plus offering that he will throw to righties and lefties.

Biggest Concern: Although his arsenal is deep, he lacks multiple plus pitches. His changeup is excellent, but outside of that, there is not a lot to be excited about. I worry he could struggle against Major League hitting.

Conclusion: Rodriguez is not the flashiest pitcher. His velocity is mediocre and his movement is nothing to write home about. That being said, he has shown an ability to find success at every level he has touched and is worth keeping on your radar for 2024.

ETA: June 2024

 

Tobias Myers RHP (Triple-A, 6′ 1″, 25)

Year	Highest Level	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr
2022	AAA	76.0	7.82	2.01	14.2%	13.5%	9.0%
2023	AA/AAA	140.2	4.93	1.25	29.3%	7.7%	14.3%

 

Overview: Despite being just 25, Milwaukee is already Myers’ sixth organization in his professional career. He had success in the lower levels of the Minor Leagues before hitting a wall in Triple-A. He has never been able to take the next step although he posted strong peripherals with Milwaukee this season.

Four-Seamer: A high-IVB four-seamer is always an encouraging start. Myers has solid velocity on the pitch and loves to use it. The issue is spotty command which leaves the pitch out over the zone and leads to plenty of home runs.

Cutter: His cutter works with his slider to create two different velocities on a similar movement profile. The cutter sits in the upper 80s and is his second most used offering. He gets plenty of whiffs although the command is also spotty.

Slider: The slider is really the only breaking ball Myers has any comfort in throwing. He uses it to attack righties, but the movement on it is inconsistent.

Biggest Concern: There is really nothing in Myers’ profile to attack left-handed batters with.

Conclusion: There is a reason that Myers has bounced around several organizations. The fastball profile is enticing, but the rest of his arsenal is below average. If Milwaukee needs somebody to make a start at some point next season it could be Myers although there is limited fantasy upside here.

ETA: September 2024

 

NL East
By: Jake Marsh (@jakemaish)

Atlanta Braves

AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP (MLB, 6’3″, 20 years old)

Overview: AJ Smith-Shawver generated a lot of buzz leading up to his MLB debut, as any 20-year-old pitcher would. The results were as pedestrian as you could expect from someone so young, but his arsenal also proved to be more pedestrian than expected. The fastball wasn’t nearly as lively as expected and the developing breakers need more development.

Four-Seamer: Velo ranges from 93-99, and sits at 95. His average velo increased from 94.5 in his final MLB start before his demotion to AAA in July, to 96.5 in his final MLB start of the season, a standalone effort at the end of September. The pitch “rises” 1.4 inches more on average than other four-seamers with similar release points and velo. This is the 83rd percentile among pitchers who threw at least 100 four-seamers in 2023.

Slider: Velo ranges 82-88, sits 85. Very tight-breaking gyro slider with not much movement in either direction. Hasn’t been very effective, and he dropped usage as the year went on.

Changeup: Velo ranges from 84-89, sits at 86. Average vertical movement with above-average horizontal movement. It’s his best whiff, groundball, and put-away pitch. In his final start, he doubled the usage.

Curveball: Velo ranges 75-80, sits 76. It gets about an inch and a half more vertical drop than average, which is solid but nothing incredible. His second-best whiff and chase pitch.

Biggest Concerns: None of the pitches in his arsenal really stand out as difference-makers. In a 25.1 MLB IP sample, his ERA estimators were all extremely poor.

Conclusion: Smith-Shawver is still extremely young for an MLB pitcher. In 2024 it’s unlikely he’s more than a 4 or 5 in the Braves rotation, and he should be a bench/streaming arm in most fantasy leagues. There is some long-term untapped value if he can continue to develop a dependable, whiff-generating breaking ball.

Super Loose ETA: Debuted June 2023. Will be a candidate to make the MLB rotation out of camp in spring 2024.

 

Hurston Waldrep, RHP (Triple-A, 6’2″, 21 years old)

Overview: Hurston Waldrep was drafted 24th overall in the 2023 draft out of the University of Florida. His difference-maker is his splitter, which consistently gets less than 800 RPMs and he can make it cut or fade. The downward break is incredible. His other three pitches flashed plus potential in college and he can be an impact MLB arm as soon as next summer. Don’t bother looking at his savant gamefeed from his AAA debut in September. His splitter wasn’t properly classified and the numbers are all over the place.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges from 94-99, and sits at 95. It has natural cutting action to it and performs best when elevated and thrown gloveside. He leaves it over the middle of the plate too often.

Splitter: Think Roki Sasaki in the WBC. He can manipulate it as he sees fit and it’s consistently nasty. Splitters can be very finicky, so there’s always a bit of a chance for a blowup with the command.

Slider: Velo in the high 80s with plus command.

Curveball: Velo ranges in the low-to-mid 80s. His over-the-top arm slot creates violent downward movement. He has supreme confidence in the pitch and threw it a ton in college.

Biggest Concerns: Any pitcher prospect who relies heavily on a splitter is inherently a risk, and his command in the minors was a bit suspect in 2023. In college, his pitch usage was suboptimal.

Conclusion: What can give you some peace of mind is that his other three pitches beyond the splitter can make up a solid MLB arsenal by themselves. And the Braves should be able to work with him on game theory and improve his approach. Invest in FYPDs with confidence. Check out this fantastic scouting report from SIS for more info.

Super Loose ETA: August 2024

 

Allan Winans, RHP (MLB, 6’2″, 28 years old)

Overview: Allan Winans is a pitch-to-contact guy without outstanding velocity or break on his pitches. His changeup is his best whiff pitch, and he profiles more like an innings-eater than an upside prospect. He showed much better command in the Majors than he did in the Minors.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges from 88 to 91, and sits at 90. It features significantly more drop than average, but it has solid arm-side movement.

Sinker: Velo ranges from 88 to 92, and sits at 90. It got hit extremely hard in the Majors.

Slider: Velo ranges from 76 to 81, and sits at 79. It has a really good movement profile, but it doesn’t get nearly as many whiffs as you’d expect.

Changeup: Velo ranges 81 to 84, sits at 83. It’s by far his best pitch, and he started to throw it more towards the end of the season.

Biggest Concerns: He doesn’t feature great velocity and even though his pitches have solid movement profiles, they all get damaged pretty consistently.

Conclusion: He could find himself throwing 100-120 innings if the Braves struggle with SP depth again in 2024, but they won’t be highly sought-after innings. He might be a viable streamer when he has a good chance to get a win against a much weaker team than the Braves.

Super Loose ETA: Debuted in July 2023 and will be a candidate to make the MLB rotation out of camp.

 

Drue Hackenburg, RHP (Double-A, 6’2″, 21 years old)

Overview: Drue Hackenburg was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2023 draft after posting poor numbers in his Sophomore year at Virginia Tech. He had a 5.70 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 85.1 IP across 15 starts. The intrigue lies in his strikeout potential. He struck out 99 batters in those 85.1 college innings, and in his first taste of professional baseball he struck out 13 in 6.1 innings.

Sinker: Velo ranges from 91-95, sits 93. According to scouts, it has good armside and vertical movement.

Slider: Velo ranges 82-85.

Changeup: Unknown, not thrown very often.

Biggest Concerns: He is very raw and unproven. Even though the strikeout numbers have been consistently great, his arsenal doesn’t point to a high whiff potential.

Conclusion: Hackenburg was one of the most talked about freshmen in college baseball in 2022, then took a big step backward in 2023. The Braves got him at a discount to reflect that, and they should be able to work with him to find his sweet spot. The strikeout numbers in a very small sample of two starts are intriguing enough to keep an eye on him heading into 2024.

Super Loose ETA: June 2025

 

Jhancarlos Lara, RHP (High-A, 6’3″, 20 years old)

Overview: Jhancarlos Lara features some of the nastiest stuff in the Minors, and his calling card is burying the slider for tons of whiffs.

Fastball: Velo ranges 94-98, sits 95. He’s continually improving his command on the pitch, and it plays best up in the zone off the depth of the slider.

Slider: Maybe one of the best sliders in the lower minors. The pitch stays in the zone for an impressively long time as it approaches the plate, and then it dives off the plate with tight horizontal break and good depth.

Biggest Concerns: The command overall is a work-in-progress, and he needs to develop at least a third pitch.

Conclusion: Lara plays for a great pitching development organization, and he should be able to develop a dependable third pitch to pair with his already impressive arsenal. There is some relief risk here with the two pitches and spotty command. However, he has improved his walk rate after each promotion he’s earned so far.

Super Loose ETA: May 2026

 

Washington Nationals

DJ Herz, LHP (Double-A, 6’2″, 22 years old)

Overview: DJ Herz is a former 8th-round draft pick who has always carried ridiculous strikeout numbers in the Minors. His left-handed delivery doesn’t produce a high-velo fastball, but he does weaponize a filthy fading changeup that headlines his arsenal.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges from 90-93. Loves to throw it inside to righties and tunnel it off his slider to lefties.

Changeup: Velo ranges 77-81. Heavily utilized against both righties and lefties.

Slider: Velo ranges 81-85. Mainly featured against lefties and sees great whiff and chase results against them. Looks more like a developing sweeper.

Curveball: Velo ranges 80-82. Sparsely used, and almost always against righties.

Biggest Concerns: The command has been erratic, and he hasn’t thrown 100 IP in any of his four seasons in the Minors.

Conclusion: Herz has the ability to rise quickly to the Majors in 2024. His stuff generates plenty of chases and whiffs and he should be able to feature strong enough command that he’s fantasy viable in all formats for much of next season.

Super Loose ETA: June 2024

 

Cade Cavalli, RHP (MLB, 6’4″, 25 years old)

Overview: Cade Cavalli will be returning from Tommy John surgery in 2024. He was a highly anticipated prospect last season and only made one MLB start before the injury. As expectations have waned for him recently, he could provide some cheap value if he can return for the second half of 2024.

Fastball: Velo ranged 92-98, sat 95 pre-surgery. Got great whiffs in his MLB debut.

Curveball: Velo ranged 78-88, sat 85. His best pitch overall and gets most of his whiffs and chases.

Changeup: Velo ranged 85-89, sat 87. Effective off-speed offerings that he commands well.

Slider: Velo ranged 86-92, sat 90. Hasn’t seen great results with it but it profiles as a solid whiff pitch.

Biggest Concerns: Coming back from TJS, it’s unclear how his command will fare. But he had improved his command after every promotion beyond A+ before the surgery.

Conclusion: He won’t be a great player to draft this offseason, but absolutely keep him in mind for mid-season FAAB runs as he makes his way back to the Majors. He could provide a nice boost to your staff.

Super Loose ETA: July 2024

 

Jackson Rutledge, RHP (MLB, 6’8″, 24 years old)

Overview: Jackson Rutledge has all the makings of a great MLB pitcher. He has at least four pitches he’s developed and can command them all well. His fastball averages more than 95 mph and can touch 98. His arsenal features pitches that can move in all four directions. He just needs to optimize his approach and pitch mix a bit before he can find that success.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges from 93-98, sits 96. Throws it more than 50% of the time and locates it well up in the zone.

Slider: Velo ranges from 81-88, sits 86. It’s his best whiff pitch and he throws it most often of his secondaries.

Changeup: Velo ranges 88-91, sits 89. An effective third offering that he gets good chase numbers on.

Sinker: Velo ranges from 93-97, sits 95. Doesn’t throw it very often but it gets a lot of chases and induces soft contact well.

Curveball: Velo ranges from 79-82, sits 80. It’s seldom used and it’s not particularly effective at getting whiffs or chases.

Biggest Concerns: He hasn’t been able to rack up strikeouts despite good velo on the fastball and decent results on the slider. He might need to throw his worst pitch or two even less and his best secondaries more often.

Conclusion: Rutledge flashed a deep arsenal in MLB that wasn’t as effective as it could be. He could quietly post solid innings for an under-the-radar young team.

Super Loose ETA: Debuted September 2023. Will be a candidate for the 2024 rotation.

 

Jarlin Susana, RHP (Low-A, 6’6″, 19 years old)

Overview: Jarlin Susana was sent to the Nationals as a minor feature of the Juan Soto trade in 2022. His biggest weapon is his high-velo fastball that sits at 98 and can touch 103, and he’s been developing his secondaries as he moves through the system.

Arsenal: Check out this scouting report for more info on his arsenal.

Biggest concerns: He posted a 14.1% walk rate in 63.1 innings at Low-A Fredericksburg.

Conclusion: Susana shouldn’t cost you too much to invest in because he’s pretty far from the majors and he has the command issues still. But the upside is just as great as just about any pitching prospect in baseball.

Super Loose ETA: August 2025

 

Cole Henry, RHP (Double-A, 6’4″, 24 years old)

Overview: Cole Henry was a second-round pick in the 2020 draft and he’s posted really great strikeout rates in the Minors.

Arsenal: Check out this scouting report from Prospects Live for more info on Henry’s arsenal.

Biggest Concerns: He has some significant relief risk, and the team has used him in that role already in the Minors. But he started more games as the season came to a close and his stuff could play in a starting role. Injuries also prevented him from pitching more than 35 innings this year.

Conclusion: He likely won’t see substantial innings in the Majors because of his low innings total in 2023, but we could see him for a spot start or two or for a few relief appearances. He could be a solid rotation option come spring 2025.

Super Loose ETA: September 2024

 

New York Mets

Mike Vasil, RHP (Triple-A, 6’5″, 23 years old)

Overview: Mike Vasil dominated AA to start 2023. After being promoted to AAA, his stellar command completely left him and he struggled mightily down the stretch.

Four-seamer: Velo 89-94, sits 92. Throws it more than half the time and locates it well.

Cutter: Velo 80-86, sits 84. It gets a lot of weak contact but isn’t very effective at getting whiffs or chases.

Changeup: Velo 78-85, sits 83. It has very similar strengths and weaknesses to the cutter.

Curveball: Velo 74-82, sits 78. It’s his best whiff-and-chase pitch, and he should probably throw it more often.

Biggest Concerns: The arsenal as-is doesn’t feature very much strikeout potential.

Conclusion: When he was posting minuscule walk rates in AA, the lack of strikeout stuff didn’t seem like too big of an issue. But now with a AAA walk rate north of 11%, it’s much more concerning. A pitch mix change could help his cause tremendously. But he should get a chance to pitch up to 120 IP in the Majors next year if he can capitalize on the opportunity.

Super Loose ETA: April 2024

 

Dominic Hamel, RHP (Double-A, 6’2″, 24 years old)

Overview: Dominic Hamel threw 124 innings at AA this year with a 30.4% K rate and a 9.3% BB rate.

Arsenal: Check out this scouting report for more details on Hamel’s arsenal.

Biggest Concerns: He has yet to reach AAA and there are a handful of guys ahead of him in line to get an MLB opportunity. His stuff isn’t super nasty, but it’s effective.

Conclusion: Hamel feels like a high-floor guy, and I can’t wait to see pitch at a level that has statcast data. We’ll know more about his arsenal then and if something anywhere close to a 30% K rate is sustainable.

Super Loose ETA: June 2024

 

Christian Scott, RHP (Double-A, 6’4″, 24 years old)

Overview: Christian Scott is a four-seamer/slider guy who needs to develop at least a third pitch to continue his upward trajectory. He posted a 2.47 ERA with a 29.4% K-BB% in 62 AA innings pitched across 12 starts.

Arsenal: Check out this scouting report for more info on his arsenal.

Biggest Concerns: He could benefit from a deeper arsenal as he moves up through the farm system.

Conclusion: He doesn’t have much else to show us at AA. In his final 32.2 IP this season, he only allowed 1 walk while striking out 45 batters. Insane.

Super Loose ETA: September 2024

 

Blade Tidwell, RHP (Double-A, 6’4″, 22 years old)

Overview: Blade Tidwell struck out 156 batters in 116 innings across High-A and Double-A in 2023. He has a polished fastball but needs to improve the command on the slider and further develop the curveball.

Four-seamer: Sits 94-96 with good carry.

Slider: Sits in the mid-80s with an impressive mix of horizontal and vertical breaks.

Biggest Concerns: His fastball locations are pretty polished, but his command of his slider and curve is often erratic.

Conclusion: He’ll need to really home in his breaking pitches to take a step forward, but if he can do so he has an outside shot to debut in 2024. He’s a good candidate to be solidly in the starting rotation by mid-2025.

Super Loose ETA: September 2024

 

Robert Colina, RHP (Double-A, 5’11”, 22 years old)

Overview: Robert Colina took some big strides forward in his development in 2023, where he earned a promotion to AA to end the season after 61 stellar innings at High-A. His strikeout stuff has gotten better as he’s progressed, and he should get a chance to pitch at AAA in 2024.

Arsenal: Colina features a fastball, curveball, and changeup. The fastball sits in the mid-90s and the off-speed pitches have plus strikeout potential. Adding a slider or cutter could elevate him even further.

Biggest Concerns: Colina is a bit of an unknown commodity, and he’s been with the Mets since 2019. It’s unclear how his three-pitch arsenal will fare against hitters in the upper minors. He isn’t as tall as the average pitcher, but that hasn’t seemed to impede him so far.

Conclusion: Wait and see him get some extended work in AA and AAA before jumping in or leaving him behind. There are lots of talented arms ahead of him, so he’s someone to have in very deep dynasty leagues or to keep in the way back of your mind for 2025.

Super Loose ETA: August 2025

 

Miami Marlins

Max Meyer, RHP (MLB, 6’0″, 24 years old)

Overview: Max Meyer was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball for a while before he had to undergo Tommy John surgery after two MLB starts in 2022. He should be ready to go for the start of the year in 2024.

Slider: Velo was 86-92 and sat at 89 prior to the surgery. He threw this pitch by far the most in his brief stint in the Majors. It’s his best pitch and it’s very effective at getting whiffs and chases.

Four-seamer: Velo was 93-97 and sat at 95 prior to the surgery. It’s not a fantastic whiff pitch but he can command it well and tunnel it off the slider effectively. We’ll see how the fastball command returns after surgery, but there will likely be an adjustment period.

Changeup: Velo was 85-90 and sat at 88 prior to the surgery. It’s decent at getting chases and soft contact.

Biggest Concerns: He will be coming off TJS, but he will have had much more time than usual to fully recover before entering game action again. His MLB debut was good, but not quite as electrifying as we had expected at that time.

Conclusion: I’m willing to buy back in on a former top prospect who should be healthy entering next season. I’d just be ready to move on quickly if you roster him early on, or you can avoid him in drafts and try to scoop him up of the wire once he shows us something.

Super Loose ETA: April 2024

 

Patrick Monteverde, LHP (Triple-A, 6’2″, 26 years old)

Overview: Patrick Monteverde had a stellar first half of the season at AA and was eventually promoted to AAA at the end of July. He only lasted two starts at the level because he gave up 13 earned runs in 3 IP in his second start at the level. He had started to falter down the stretch in AA, and there are concerns about his effectiveness against good hitters with his very low velocity.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges from 87-91 and sits at 89. His low arm slot and release point help its effectiveness, but there’s only so much you can do with a fastball that sits lower than 90 mph.

Secondaries: The slider and changeup are solid whiff pitches, but there’s very little velocity separation off of his four-seamer.

Biggest Concerns: His lack of velocity limits his upside, even if he’s a crafty lefty.

Conclusion: He could be a guy like Nestor Cortes who lives off his craftiness, deception, and pitch movement, but he needs to still add a couple of ticks of velocity and develop his secondaries more to have anywhere near that kind of upside. Depending on the Marlins pitching health in 2024, he could get opportunities in the second half.

Super Loose ETA: August 2024

 

Enmanuel De Jesus, LHP (MLB, 6’3″, 26 years old)

Overview: Enmanuel De Jesus spent nine seasons in the Minors before making his MLB debut at age 26 in a long relief appearance in September of this season. He was sent back to AAA afterward and later came up for another long relief appearance in the last week of the season. His ratios and K-BB% don’t really jump off the page, but I’m intrigued by his arsenal and the flash of whiff potential he showed in his two MLB appearances.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges 91-95, sits 93. The results aren’t great and it rates like an average lefty fastball. His locations are poor, even though he has a high Zone%. He leaves it in hittable situations too often.

Changeup: Velo ranges 85-89, sits 87. It has really great movement down and away from righties. It’s also his best whiff-and-chase pitch by far. In his second MLB appearance, he threw it as his primary pitch.

Slider: Velo ranges 77-83, sits 79. It features a 5.4 inches more vertical drop than the average lefty slider with similar velocity. Its results have been pretty good- it’s his second-best whiff pitch right behind the changeup and shows a great CSW%. He could benefit from throwing it more often.

Sinker: Average movement and velo profile with mediocre results.

Biggest Concerns: The fastball isn’t a great pitch, but it could take a step forward with better locations. He might have to lean on his secondaries more often which could leave him open to command issues, even though he commands those pitches pretty well right now in limited use. Upper-level strikeout rates are poor.

Conclusion: The overall 12.5% SwStr% in his brief MLB appearances and the profiles of his secondaries make me believe that the 14-15% strikeout rates last year could make a significant jump with more time with the MLB coaching staff next year.

Super Loose ETA: May 2024

 

Dax Fulton, LHP (Double-A, 6’7″, 22 years old)

Overview: Dax Fulton’s 2023 season ended when he had to undergo elbow surgery in June. It’s not a full reconstruction and TJS, but it is repairing his UCL. The timeline is a little shorter than a full TJS, so there’s a chance that he misses less than half of 2024. Before the surgery, Fulton flashed a big curve and solid fastball from the left side and carried a 30.3% K rate across 53 IPs in 2022 and 2023.

Arsenal: Check out this scouting report for more information on Fulton’s pitch mix.

Biggest Concerns: Even though he didn’t have to undergo a full reconstruction of the UCL, there’s still going to be an adjustment period and some future injury risk. His walk rate spiked this year before the injury.

Conclusion: It’s unlikely that we see Fulton in the Majors in 2024, but he’s absolutely someone to keep in mind for 2025. He could even be a solid buy-low in most dynasty leagues if you have some room for risk. The breaking pitches could carry him through a great hype cycle in the next year or two.

Super Loose ETA: May 2025

 

Karson Milbrandt, RHP (High-A, 6’2″, 19 years old)

Overview: Karson Milbrandt was drafted out of high school in the third round of the 2022 draft, and he earned a promotion to High-A in his first professional season this year. At 19, he was the youngest pitcher on his team and one of the youngest in the league.

Four-seamer: Velo touches 94-95. His delivery could be fine-tuned a bit to be repeated better, and there’s definitely room for velocity growth as he matures and figures out his mechanics.

Curveball: Very big breaker that’s advanced for his age.

Changeup: Already a dependable third pitch with room for optimization in the approach.

Biggest Concerns: He is young for the level, but he’s also likely still at least two seasons out from seeing MLB action. A lot could change in that time.

Conclusion: Someone to keep tabs on as he faces better hitters and develops. The overall velocity and movement profile make him an intriguing prospect.

Super Loose ETA: April 2026

 

Philadelphia Phillies

Mick Abel, RHP (Triple-A, 6’5″, 22 years old)

Overview: Mick Abel has produced remarkably consistent results across four levels of the Minors in his first three seasons of professional baseball.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges 91-96, sits 94. It fills up the zone but also draws a ton of contact.

Slider: Velo ranges 76-80, sits 78. He threw the slider most often during his AAA debut in late September. Batters hardly swung at it because it was extremely wild and unpredictable. But when they did swing, they missed frequently. This pitch has the makings of an elite offering if it can be commanded just a touch better.

Changeup: Velo ranges 85-87, sits 86. Seldom used but it can be a solid whiff pitch.

Sinker and cutter: These two pitches could round out a deep and well-developed arsenal if Abel can find and execute practical usage.

Biggest Concerns: Abel has never carried a walk rate of less than 10% at any level or in any season. Even though the slider is his best pitch, it looks like he can’t control it very well.

Conclusion: In his AAA debut, he threw his pitches in the strike zone at a league-average rate. He just couldn’t get any chases. If he can find a way to cut down the walks and make his wild slider more effective, then he could rise as high as the Phillies’ number-two starter by late 2024.

Super Loose ETA: May 2024

 

Griff McGarry, RHP (Triple-A, 6’2″, 24 years old)

Overview: Griff McGarry is the extreme version of Mick Abel– his stuff is almost as good, but his command is even worse than Abel’s. He also had maybe the worst first three AAA starts of all time. After being promoted in early August, he threw 4.1 IP across three starts where he gave up 20 earned runs, struck out 5, and walked 14.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges 91-95, sits 94. It’s not a great whiff pitch but he throws it in the zone with the most consistency of his pitches, and it gets a good amount of called strikes.

Slider: Velo ranges 80-85, sits 83. It’s the secondary pitch that he throws the most, but not necessarily the one with the best results. Although, it’s still a pretty good whiff pitch.

Curveball: Velo ranges 77-80, sits 79. This is his best secondary pitch. He throws it in the zone most often, it gets the most chases, and it gets the most whiffs. He only threw it about 10% of the time in his three AAA starts.

Changeup: Velo ranges 85-89, sits 87. He very, very rarely throws his changeup so there isn’t a lot of data on it.

Biggest Concerns: He doesn’t command any one of his pitches well.

Conclusion: He’s the epitome of a high-risk, high-reward guy. It’s best to wait and see how he works in the offseason to fix the clear issues he had in his AAA debut.

Super Loose ETA: August 2024

 

Michael Plassmeyer, LHP (MLB, 6’2″, 26 years old)

Overview: Michael Plassmeyer has thrown the most AAA innings of any of the Phillies’ top pitching prospects. He lacks the high velocity, big stuff arsenal that Abel and McGarry both have, but he makes up for it with solid command of his breaking pitches.

Four-seamer: Velo ranges from 86-90, sits 88. I don’t really know how, but this pitch carried a 13% SwStr rate in his 67.2 AAA IP in 2023.

Slider: Velo ranges from 75-79, sits 77. It’s his best pitch by far and has performed with elite metrics at times in AAA. Batters chase it out of the zone frequently and seldom make solid contact with it.

Changeup: Velo ranges 80-85, sits 83. He doesn’t throw it in the zone consistently, and batters chase often but don’t swing and miss often. Decent third pitch for ground balls and weak contact.

Biggest Concerns: I’m not convinced he’ll be able to hold his own against MLB hitters with a fastball that rarely touches 90 mph. But somehow, it’s worked well enough up until this point.

Conclusion: Proceed with caution. But if it works, it works. He could be a good streamer in 2024 if you find yourself desperately in need of a win against a poor offense.

Super Loose ETA: April 2024

 

Alex McFarlane, RHP (Low-A, 6’3″, 22 years old)

Overview: Alex McFarlane has a big, high-velo fastball and has shown great strikeout numbers in his short minor league career so far.

Arsenal: Check out this scouting report from MLB Pipeline to read more about McFarlane’s arsenal.

Biggest Concerns: There’s still a lot of projecting to do here – he needs to clean up his delivery and find the right pitch mix.

Conclusion: There’s an outside shot that McFarlane makes his way to AA this season, and if that happens he could be a very fast riser on prospect lists. Be ahead of the curve and watch for him to take a step forward with his approach and secondary pitches early on in 2024.

Super Loose ETA: May 2026

 

Jean Cabrera, RHP (Low-A, 6’0″, 21 years old)

Overview: Jean Cabrera cut his walk rate in half from 2022 to 2023 and maintained his average strikeout skills. In 2021, he won the award for the top pitching season in the Phillies minor league system.

Arsenal: If you scroll down on this Fangraphs org ranking to where Cabrera is listed as prospect no. 35, you can read more about his upside and arsenal.

Biggest Concerns: Cabrera got started a little bit late after he signed as a 17-year-old in July of 2019 but didn’t pitch professionally until the 2021 season. The lost COVID year set him back, and he still has to catch up on the development of his secondary pitches.

Conclusion: This is a pitching prospect who had the makings of a quick riser before he had some growing pains in 2022. He just put together a quietly productive 2023 and could take another step forward in development in 2024.

Super Loose ETA: September 2025

 

NL West

By: Steve Dwyer (@SteveDwyer23)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Yu-Min Lin, LHP (Double-A, 5’11/160/20 Years Old)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A	56.1	2.72	1.10	40.3%	9.7%
2023	AA	121.1	3.86	1.19	28.2%	9.7%

Overview: Lin has established himself as the Diamondbacks’ top pitching prospect and held his own against advanced competition in his age 20 season. Reaching the Double-A level in 2023, Lin successfully pitched deep into games often. A plus changeup to go along with 3 or 4 other good secondaries makes Lin have to square up.

Fastball: The weakest pitch in the large arsenal for Lin, his low 90s fastball could use some improvement. If velocity improves at all in 2024, Lin is looking at the front of the rotation potential.

Curveball: One of the promising off-speed pitches for Lin, his curveball is arguably his best strikeout pitch. A big breaking curve could be less effective against more disciplined hitters but either way, it has plus potential.

Slider: An undervalued secondary from Lin, the slider often makes hitters look foolish for a lot of swings and misses. Currently viewed as his second-best offering, the slider has a chance to be plus consistently.

Changeup: No doubt for me, the changeup is the most successful offering for Lin. Great late movement and deception have hitters swing through it expecting a fastball. This pitch gives Lin the ability to accumulate strikeouts at a high rate while also maintaining potential #2 starter potential.

Biggest Concerns: Lin is on the smaller side at just 5’11/160, so durability and lack of velocity on his fastball are two knocks on the crafty lefty. A third potential concern could be command as he faces advanced hitters that can lay off the big moving off-speed pitches.

Conclusion: Without a plus fastball, Lin is likely to be a 3 starter in the big leagues. His secondary pitches should keep hitters off balance and allow him to pitch 5-6 innings per start. If the command sticks, Lin has the potential to pitch deeper when he has it all working.With three to four good secondary offerings, Lin should put up good strikeout numbers tied to the number of innings he throws per season.

ETA: July 2024

 

Blake Walston, LHP (Triple-A, 6’5/175/22 Years Old)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2019	ROK	11	2.45	0.91	40.5%	4.8%
2021	A+	95.2	3.76	1.24	28.8%	8.1%
2022	AA	124	4.79	1.40	25.8%	8.6%
2023	AAA	149.1	4.52	1.57	15.6%	14%

Overview: Walston was looking like a frontline starter and one of the better pitching prospects in baseball. A down 2022 season and an arguably worse 2023 season have him looking to rebound for 2024. Walston doesn’t have a great fastball but can throw a slider, changeup, and curveball to help hide the lack of velocity on his fastball.

Fastball: Despite being 6’5, the uptick in velo has yet to happen for Walston as he sits in the mid to low 90s. For Walston to regain his top pitching prospect status, he’ll need to be sitting at 94-95 mph consistently.

Curveball: Walston has a big curve that he can drop in for a strike or get a swing and miss on. At times this pitch looks like it could be above average, but Walston needs to command this pitch well enough for that to happen. The curveball could end up playing well off his slider if he’s able to keep it down in the zone.

Slider: Currently the most reliable secondary pitch in his repertoire, Walston flashes a good slider that works great against left-handed hitters. The slider and changeup battle back and forth for his best pitch but both are good offerings.

Changeup: The changeup development for Walston could determine how successful of a pitcher he becomes. Like his curve, the changeup can be thrown for a strike and get swing and misses.

Biggest Concerns: After 2023, command and a lack of plus offerings seem to have halted Walston as a top pitching prospect. 93 walks in 149.1 innings at Triple-A Reno, equating to a 1.57 whip, made it hard for Walston to succeed. Without a true strikeout pitch, Walston only added 104 strikeouts in those 149.1 innings at Triple-A in 2023.

Conclusion: Walston is better than he pitched in 2023 but the walks and strikeouts need to both move drastically for him to make an impact at the MLB level. Once thought to be a potential ace, Walston is now shaping up to be a mid-to-back end of the rotation starter.

ETA: June 2024

 

Dylan Ray, RHP (Double-A, 6’3/230)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A	13.2	6.59	1.46	27.4%	6.5%
2023	AA	113.1	4.37	1.24	29.3%	8.5%

Overview: A 2022 4th-round pick, Ray put together a solid season at High-A before a rough end at Double-A in 2023. Ray has three pitches that he throws well and mixes in a changeup as a fourth offering. His fastball and slider bring the most success with swing and misses, while the curve and changeup keep hitters off balance.

Fastball: Ray throws his fastball at 95-96 mph consistently with late movement which should allow him to get away with some mistakes. At times this pitch has some true two-seam action as it reaches the plate.

Curveball: A work in progress, Ray has flashed an above-average curveball that he throws in the upper 70s. The development of this pitch could be crucial to keeping him as a starter.

Slider: The best pitch Ray throws is his mid-80s slider. A true strikeout pitch, Ray is willing to throw this pitch ahead or behind in the count. If a bullpen role is in his future, this pitch will be his go-to, mixed in with a fastball.

Changeup: His 4^th offering, Ray is working on improving his change for another change of pace pitch in his arsenal.

Biggest Concerns: Reliever risk. Ray could be a lot more successful as a reliever right now, but he has the chance to stick as a starter. Ray could follow the steps of Drey Jameson as a multi-inning type of guy if the Diamondbacks choose to go that route.

Conclusion: Ray has a big frame at 6’3, 230 pounds so durability over a long season shouldn’t be an issue. Ray does a good job of missing bats while also limiting contact and the Diamondbacks could use him as a potential spot starter through 2024.

ETA: September 2024

 

Yilber Diaz, RHP (Double-A, 6’0/190)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	ROK	26.1	5.13	1.59	14.0%	14.9%
2022	A+	77.2	4.06	1.21	30.1%	11.6%
2023	AA	102.2	4.84	1.34	31.8%	13.2%

Overview: Diaz has powerful stuff that often translates to good strikeout numbers. His fastball and curveball both have good movement, and he adds in a slider and changeup for two more different looks. Diaz tended to use his fastball and curveball in 2023 for most of his strikeouts. The big 12-6 movement from the curve leaves hitters swinging hard as it drops through the zone. Diaz will then blow his fastball by hitters leaving them looking at strike three as it registers in the upper 90’s.

Fastball: A plus fastball, Diaz has hit 99 with his heater but sits at 95-96. His best offering at the moment, Diaz throws his fastball with 110 percent effort which allows him to reach such high velocity.

Curveball: This curveball is nasty and often a strikeout pitch for Diaz. A big 12-6 dropping curveball that is clocked in the upper 70s, it moves almost the entire strike zone causing huge swings and misses. Diaz will need to be careful to keep this down against advanced hitters but paired with his fastball he can fool plenty of hitters.

Slider: A third potential above-average offering for Diaz, his slider offers a different look from his curve with good right-to-left break. As he gains more consistency with this pitch, the strikeout numbers should continue to rise.

Changeup: His fourth offering and his weakest, it is still a good offering. He doesn’t throw his change as much as his other pitches and with good reason. Still, this extra offering gives his starter potential at the big league level.

Biggest Concerns: Command is the biggest hurdle for Diaz as he walked 58 batters in 102.2 innings in 2023. This puts reliever risk on the potential MLB role for Diaz. In 2021, Diaz pitched only as a reliever in the DSL where walks were still an issue, making a reliever profile much more realistic.

Conclusion: Diaz has good velocity and a curveball that seems to leave hitters guessing at the lower levels. His delivery makes it look like he’s throwing 110 percent, which paired with his size may cause some durability concerns. Diaz has the potential to be a back-end starter that comes along with high strikeouts and walk totals.

ETA: September 2024

 

Landon Sims, RHP (Single-A, 6’2/227)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2023	A	24.2	5.47	1.42	25.7%	11%

Overview: Sims burst onto the scene as a reliever in his sophomore season and dominated out of the bullpen for Mississippi State. After moving to the starting rotation his junior year, Sims needed Tommy John surgery after just 15.2 innings. A plus mix of a fastball and slider, Sims struck out 150 batters in his 85 collegiate innings. The professional career hasn’t been as successful for Sims, but the good news is the Diamondbacks are letting him start.

Fastball: Arguably his best pitch, Sims consistently throws 95-96 mph and has hit even higher. At times it can almost be called a rising fastball as the late movement continues when thrown up in the zone.

Slider: His other plus offering, Sims has a slider that will most likely be his strikeout pitch in the pros. A mid-80s slider, Sims throws this pitch well and often.

Changeup: A pitch that needs development, Sims has some good movement to his changeup. If the Diamondbacks want to give Sims a go as a starter, this pitch will be crucial to his success.

Biggest Concerns: Reliever risk. Sims was most successful as a reliever in college and could pitch in high-leverage situations as a pro. The lack of secondary pitches may limit Sims from pitching deep into games.

Conclusion: The Diamondbacks could move Sims quickly now that he’s recovered from Tommy John. A hot start to 2024 could catapult Sims through the minor leagues quickly, but we might see him take on a long relief role for Arizona.

ETA: August 2024

 

Colorado Rockies

Carson Palmquist, LHP (Double-A, 6’3/185)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	ROK	1	0.00	2.00	20%	40%
2023	AA	92.1	3.90	1.27	34.3%	9.5%

Overview: A 3^rd round pick in 2022 out of Miami, Palmquist if a crafty lefty that racks up the strikeouts. A solid three-pitch repertoire, plus good command has given Palmquist the ability to start for the Rockies. Standing tall and lanky, Palmquist has a funky delivery where he shortens his body as he delivers his pitch to hitters.

Fastball: A low 90s fastball, Palmquist relies on his delivery for success with this pitch. An average offering currently, Palmquist has room for a jump in velocity.

Slider: Probably his best offering again because of his delivery, Palmquist throws a good 77-79 mph slider. This pitch is particularly hard to pick up out of his hand because Palmquist hides the ball late into his release.

Changeup: There is a case to be made, the changeup is the best pitch Palmquist currently has. Sitting in the low 80s, it has good break and can compete with his slider as a strikeout pitch.

Biggest Concerns: A dominant reliever in college, Palmquist could be converted back to such if he struggles in his next promotion to Triple-A. The velocity on his fastball also ticks up a bit in shorter outings so the stuff may play better in a relief role as well.

Conclusion: Palmquist had a successful enough 2023 where the Rockies will almost certainly let him try his hand as a starter for now. It’s hard to watch Palmquist and not see shades of Chris Sale from a delivery and strikeout standpoint. Palmquist is an under-the-radar watch for 2024.

ETA: July 2024

 

Joe Rock, LHP (Triple-A, 6’6/200)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	ROK	8	1.13	0.75	37.9%	3.4%
2022	AA	115.2	4.82	1.26	24.4%	10.2%
2023	AAA	92.2	4.66	1.41	27.5%	8.3%

Overview: A big lefty, Rock stands 6’6 and adds a funky but smooth delivery. The windup is long which sometimes leads to overextending and overthrowing but his walk rate is still relatively low. Both his slider and changeup work well off his fastball to give him mid to back-end rotation potential.

Fastball: Rock throws his heater in the low to mid-90s with some movement. Currently his best pitch, it has more room for improvement as Rock is a big starter.

Slider: Sometimes classified more as a slurve, Rock throws this pitch with great movement. This pitch tends to have left-handed hitters fooled more than right-handed hitters.

Changeup: The third pitch is his arsenal; Rock still has a good feel for his changeup. Not at the same level as his other two pitches, Rock will need to improve this pitch to stick around as a starter.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff. Rock doesn’t have the best stuff, but his delivery and size are enough to be a deceptive pitcher. Right now, Rock is limited to a back-end starter but put together some longer starts at the Double-A level in 2023.

Conclusion: The Rockies need pitching help at the MLB level and Rock is one of the closest in the farm to starting that. A 2024 spot starter or inning eater could both be in the cards for Rock, but he has enough potential to stick in a MLB rotation for a few years as well.

ETA: July 2024

 

Chase Dollander, RHP (N/A, 6’2/200)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2023	N/A

Overview: The most watched pitcher coming into the 2023 college season, Dollander was not as dominant as his 2022 season. With 2 pitches that are already plus pitches, Dollander holsters 2 more pitches that can be above-average pitches.

Fastball: The best pitch for Dollander is his fastball. It sits at 95/96 mph and has touched 98. A dominant fastball showcased in 2022 at Tennessee, it overmatched hitters.

Curveball: Dollander has a chance to turn his curveball into an above-average pitch. The spin rate is high, like his slider which allows him to use this pitch to get hitters to swing and miss.

Slider: Dollander and his slider were key to his breakout 2022 season. In 2023, the slider wasn’t as sharp which led to a somewhat disappointing season. This pitch is still his best offering paired with his fastball and is a go-to strikeout pitch.

Changeup: Another pitch that flashes above average, Dollander throws his changeup in the mid to high 80s. His third-best offering, Dollander can rack up strikeouts with this pitch as well. Consistency is key for all his pitches after a sub-par 2023.

Biggest Concerns: Command. After putting himself on the map as the best pitching prospect in the 2023 draft, Dollander lost his command in his final season at Tennessee. We’ll have to see which version of command Dollander gives us to start his professional career.

Conclusion: Dollander has plus stuff and the potential of a frontline starter. Much like Jack Leiter a jump straight to Double-A could be possible as the stuff is that good. Dollander should still be thought of as a top pitching prospect in baseball that could find his way to Coors quickly.

ETA: August 2024

 

Sean Sullivan, LHP (Single-A, 6’4/190)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2023	A	4.0	0.00	0.25	76.9%	7.7%

Overview: A 2^nd round pick in 2023, Sullivan has more similarities to a Chris Sale delivery than Carson Palmquist does. Sullivan delivers his pitch from the first end side of the rubber, which gives plenty of deception. Like Palmquist, the stuff isn’t’ much like Chris Sale either, as Sullivan has a fastball that sits in the upper 80’s/lower 90’s. Despite powerful stuff, Sullivan racked up 111 strikeouts in his final season at Wake in just 69.2 innings.

Fastball: The best pitch Sullivan throws is his fastball, but not because of the velocity like most pitchers. Sullivan uses his funky delivery and movement on his fastball to get hitters to swing through it.

Slider: The pitch that needs some improvement is his slider/slurve. It comes in at 80 mph and often in the high 70s which could be an issue against advanced hitters.

Changeup: A low 80’s changeup is another reason Sullivan put up a 14.3 K/9 at Wake Forest in his final season. The changeup drops away from right-handed hitters and in on left-handed hitters right as it gets to the hitter. This will pair well with his fastball for swing and misses in the pros much like it did at Wake.

Biggest Concerns: Reliever risk. Sullivan profiles as a plus reliever or multi-inning guy but the Rockies should let him start for now. This possibility most likely won’t be evident until Sullivan faces some tougher completion, which hopefully will come at the Double-A level early in 2024.

Conclusion: Sullivan could move fast in 2024 as a starter or reliever if Colorado wants to go that route. He looked dominant in his short stint at Low-A Fresno and could skip High-A entirely to start 2024 due to it being hitter-friendly.

ETA: August 2024

 

Mason Albright, LHP (High-A, 6’0/190)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	ROK	8.0	0.00	0.63	26.7%	6.7%
2022	A+	55.0	8.67	1.96	21.6%	10.3%
2023	A+	109.2	3.28	1.26	25.9%	7.4%

Overview: Acquired from the Angels, Albright is a younger lefty in an organization that seems to have mostly left-handed pitching. Albright matches the profiles of Palmquist, Rock, and Sullivan in that they’re all mid-level talents right now. A low 90’s fastball to go with 3 off-speed decent pitches succeeded in High-A Spokane which is a park that favors hitters.

Fastball/Cutter: Albright has a low 90s fastball that most likely won’t fare well against higher competition without a jump in velocity or movement. At times his fastball has good late 2 seam action to it, and he has developed a cutter that works opposite to that pitch.

Curveball: Potentially the only above-average pitch for Albright, his big curve can leave hitters frozen. It’ll be interesting to see how this slow curve holds up against older hitters.

Changeup: His fourth offering is a changeup that has the potential to be average to above average.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff. Albright has mostly average stuff across the board which equates to a back-end rotation guy. With no plus pitch, Albright looks more like a starter who can eat innings with good strikeout potential.

Conclusion: Albright should start the season in Double-A Hartford but is a good candidate to be a spot starter around the middle to late part of the season.

ETA: September 2024

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

Gavin Stone, RHP (MLB, 6’1/175)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A+	91	3.76	1.23	36.5%	6.6%
2022	AAA	121.2	1.48	1.12	33.9%	8.9%
2023	MLB	100.2	4.74	1.31	27.8%/14.5%	10.7%/8.6%

Overview: Entering the 2023 season, Stone had eyes all over him after posting a 1.48 ERA from High-A to Triple-A in 2022. Add in a devastating changeup that misses bats at an elite level, Stone has totaled 426 strikeouts in 313.1 minor league innings. The Major League Debut was not the same for Stone as he struggled to keep hitters off base. His chase and whiff percentages were good in his 31-inning cup of coffee but that was about it. When Stone has his slider working, he has the chance to be a #3 starter.

Fastball: Baseball Savant classifies Stone as having a fastball, sinker, and cutter. His Sinker had a .227 batting average against while being thrown 14.4% of the time. Stone is going to have to improve his 4-seam and cut fastballs as they were both hit for over a .400 batting average by opponents.

Slider: The slider was the pitch that needed to improve for Stone to reach starter potential and at times in the minors, it looked to be there. But like his fastball, it was hit for a .385 batting average against and was only thrown 6.2% of the time.

Changeup: The changeup put Stone on the map as a potential mid-rotation starter. It was his second most successful pitch in his unsuccessful MLB debut only allowing a .240 batting average against.

Biggest Concerns: Reliever and stuff risk. Stone has an elite changeup but his fastball and slide both were hit hard last year. The command wasn’t there at the MLB level in his debut, but teammate Ryan Pepiot had a similar debut and we saw a huge turnaround from him in 2023.

Conclusion: Stone should get an opportunity to pitch quality innings for the Dodgers in 2024. A modified long reliever or spot starter could help Stone succeed with the lack of secondary offerings.

ETA: Opening Day 2024

 

Nick Frasso, RHP (Triple-A, 6’5/200)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A	5	0.00	1.00	38.1%	9.5%
2022	AA	54	1.83	0.93	35.8%	8%
2023	AAA	93	3.77	1.27	26.8%	7.8%

 

Overview: Frasso is 6’5, 200 pounds, and uses all of that to throw his plus fastball that sits in the mid to upper 90’s.A changeup and slider which are both average secondary offerings, could force Frasso to move to the bullpen or a long relief role.

Fastball: No doubt the best pitch for Frasso is his big fastball that has touched Triple digits. The velocity allows Frasso to throw this pitch around the plate and get away with it. There is good late action to his fastball that makes it get on hitters quickly.

Slider: His third offering, the slider is a good change of pace for Frasso who also accumulates strikeouts. At times he loses the shape of his slider and needs to locate it more in the zone.

Changeup: His second-best pitch is a mid-80s changeup that has a lot of vertical drop. This pitch drops in to right-handed hitters and plays very well mixed in with his plus fastball.

Biggest Concerns: Reliever risk. The Dodgers have given Frasso the opportunity to start since acquiring him, but he has yet to throw deep into games. In 2023, Frasso threw into the 6^th inning just once. The Dodgers could be taking the cautious approach as Frasso only threw 54 innings in 2022.

Conclusion: One of the many promising Dodgers pitching prospects, Frasso has more reliever risk than most. There isn’t much left for Frasso to prove in the Minor Leagues besides pitching deep into games and showing his durability. If the Dodgers loosen the reigns, Frasso could make an impact quickly at the MLB level.

ETA: June 2024

 

River Ryan, RHP (Triple-A, 6’2/195)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A+	47.2	2.45	1.24	34.8%	10.4%
2023	AAA	104.1	3.80	1.30	24.6%	10.3%

Overview: Ryan might have the best stuff of any Dodgers pitching prospect with four offerings that all flash above-average potential. Much like Nick Frasso, Ryan hasn’t pitched deep in games. Given his advanced age, Ryan could be the first in line for spot starts in 2024.

Fastball/Cutter: The best offering for Ryan is his mid to high 90s fastball that can touch 98-99. He has some good rising action on his four-seam fastball and mixes in a low 90s cutter. Both pitches are above-average pitches with flashes of plus.

Curveball: Ryan has another above-average pitch in his low 80s curveball that he can throw for a strike. The curveball may lean more to above average as opposed to plus potential.

Changeup: Ryan has two solid offerings, but his changeup is slightly above his curveball currently. The changeup flashes plus and Ryan has solid velocity on this pitch in the mid-80s.

Biggest Concerns: Command. Walks have been an issue for Ryan so far in the minors which look likely from him overthrowing at times. An athletic and repeatable delivery, Ryan doesn’t accumulate walks from his mechanics. His fastball has some rise and carry on it that often misses high but still gets swing and misses from minor league hitters.

Conclusion: Before reaching Triple-A for a brief stint to end 2023, Ryan overmatched hitters often with his plus stuff despite it being over the middle of the plate at times. He has the look of an everyday starter who could pitch in the middle of MLB rotations.

ETA: July 2024

 

Landon Knack, RHP (Triple-A, 6’4/220)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	AA	62.1	3.18	0.93	33.3%	3.3%
2022	AA	64.2	5.01	1.41	28.4%	9.6%
2023	AAA	100.1	2.51	1.16	24.1%	7.3%

Overview: Knack is more of a finesse pitcher with average stuff as he pitched to a 2.51 ERA in 2023 with only 99 strikeouts. Knack had plus command when he first debuted in 2021, pitching 62.1 innings and only walking 8 batters. As Knack has advanced through the minor leagues, the command went from elite to above average.

Fastball: A mid-90s fastball, Knack combines this above-average pitch with his good control to limit hits against him.

Curveball: The weakest pitch in his arsenal, Knack throws a high 70s curve that lacks the movement of an average pitch.

Slider: Arguably the best pitch for Knack, his slider sits in the mid-80s and has good break to it often getting weak contact or swings and misses.

Changeup: A potential above-average pitch, Knack has a breakaway changeup that sometimes moves toward right-handed hitters. Knack has a chance to develop this pitch to a consistent strikeout pitch.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff. Knack might not have good enough stuff to stick as a starter. The command allows Knock to continue his career as a starter for now, but Major League hitters might take advantage of the average offerings.

Conclusion: At 6’2, 220 pounds, Knack should be able to handle a full season workload. The Dodgers aren’t the team to deploy an inning-eating type of starter unless needed for a spot start so that may be the extent of his 2024 season.

ETA: August 2024

 

Justin Wrobleski, LHP (High-A, 6’1/195)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A	21.2	2.91	1.15	29.9%	5.7%
2023	A+	102.1	2.90	1.25	26%	8.3%

Overview: Wrobleski has four solid offerings that have allowed him to pitch to a sub-3 ERA in his 124-inning minor league career. A mid-90s fastball with his somewhat funky delivery allows him to get ahead of hitters often. Watching Wrobleski pitch, he profiles as a long reliever, but the above-average stuff should give him the opportunity to start.

Fastball: A mis 90s fastball, Wrobleski features good late action that leads to swing and misses. The uptick in velocity gives him a mid-rotation upside.

Curveball: Wrobleski didn’t throw this pitch often but when he did it looked like a good secondary offering that could be above average. A big breaking curve, it breaks away from left-handed hitters giving him another pitch to keep hitters guessing.

Slider: His best pitch along with his fastball, Wrobleski throws a good mid-80s slider with a lot of break. This pitch would play well out of the bullpen if he needs to go that route.

Changeup: Wrobleski has a feel for his changeup, but it isn’t quite at the same level as his slider or fastball. It has the potential to be his third-best pitch if he can develop consistency.

Biggest Concerns: Command. A bit of a high-effort delivery, Wrobleski can lose control at times. So far, the command is only lost on a pitch or two during an at-bat and Wrobleski has been able to rebound to get the out.

Conclusion: Wrobleski limits hard contact and has solid movement on his pitches, freezing a good number of hitters. The Dodgers won’t need to rush Wrobleski, but a multi-inning reliever role would fit Wrobleski well to start his career.

ETA: August 2024

 

San Diego Padres

Jairo Iriarte, RHP (Double-A, 6’2/160)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2019	ROK	35.1	3.31	1.39	13.4%	8.9%
2021	A	30	11.40	1.87	23.4%	9%
2022	A	91.1	5.12	1.37	26.7%	10.3%
2023	AA	90.1	3.49	1.28	33.2%	11.7%

Overview: After a bit of an up-and-down start to his professional career, Iriarte looked to turn a corner in 2023. A smaller starter, weighing just 160 pounds, Iriarte regularly hits 96 with his fastball. There are a lot of similarities in delivery to former Royals starter Yordano Ventura. A quick whippy and strong delivery that racks up strikeouts is always fun to watch.

Fastball: A mid-90s fastball that often touches 96 mph, this is the best offering for Iriarte. His fastball has good late movement and jumps on hitters.

Slider: His third best pitch is slider but that is mostly because of lack of consistency. Watching Iriarte, all his pitches have good break including his slider, but he needs to locate them for strikes.

Changeup: The second-best pitch for Iriarte, his changeup has great late fade. His changeup runs away from left-handed hitters and when it’s working it just keeps fading with plus movement.

Biggest Concerns: Durability and command. The lack of size could be tough on Iriarte for a full season of starting, combined with the average command there is still some improvement needed.

Conclusion: Iriarte is a fun pitcher to watch who oozes confidence when on the mound. He ended the season with Double-A San Antonio last season where he struck out 51 batters in 29.1 innings. The Padres will most likely send him to Double-A to start 2024 but we could see him in San Diego by the All-Star break.

ETA: July 2024

 

Adam Mazur, RHP (Double-A, 6’2/180)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2023	AA	96	2.81	1.19	22.8%	4.3%

Overview: A 2022 2nd-round pick, Mazur reached Double-A in his first full season. Mazur throws the kitchen sink at hitters with 4 different offerings. A fastball that lives in the mid-90s with good sink, curveball, changeup, and the best weapon he has, his slider. Plus command allows Mazur to limit the damage against him.

Fastball: Mazur threw a fastball that sat in the low to mid-90s but had an uptick in velocity and now sits in the upper 90s. Good break on this pitch, paired with his velocity gives it the potential to be a plus offering.

Curveball: His weakest pitch, Mazur throws an upper 70s/low 80s curve that is more of a change of eye-level pitch.

Slider: The best pitch in his arsenal, Mazur features a plus mid to high 80s slider with plus movement. This is the strikeout pitch for Mazur that allows him to have close to a strikeout per inning.

Changeup: Mazur throws a mid-80s changeup that is used like his curveball as a change of pace pitch. Just like his curve, this has a chance to be an average secondary.

Biggest Concerns: Secondary stuff. Mazur has a good slider and fastball, but his changeup and curveball are a little raw. If those two pitches add consistency, Mazur can reach #3 starter potential.

Conclusion: Mazur has the path to being a #3-4 starter with the potential to achieve more with his good command and improved stuff. The Padres pushed Mazur to Double-A in his first full season and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him get a good look in 2024 spring training.

ETA: July 2024

 

Ryan Bergert, RHP (Double-A, 6’1/210)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	ROK	11	0.00	0.27	37.8%	0%
2022	A+	103.1	5.84	129	27.3%	8.9%
2023	AA	105.2	2.73	126	29.2%	10.7%

Overview: A breakout in 2023, Bergert pitched to a 2.73 ERA with 126 strikeouts in 105.2 innings between High-A and Double-A. The 23-year-old throws a fastball in the mid-90s with a mid-80s slider as his best offering. The curve and changeup both need a little improvement but profile as solid pitches.

Fastball: His second best pitch, Bergert throws a fastball that sits at 94 mph but can touch 96. Movement makes this pitch another strikeout pitch so far at lower levels.

Curveball: Berget has a curve right now that is an average offering that at times shows potential to be above average.

Slider: His best strikeout pitch and best pitch in general, Bergert has a slider that can be an above-average pitch. The movement is there, consistency and command are all that is needed to make this pitch above average.

Changeup: Like his curve, his changeup is more average for now and is most likely slightly behind his curve in terms of stuff.

Biggest Concerns: Command. Bergert walked 42 batters in 103.1 innings in 2022 and 46 batters in 105.2 innings in 2023. Bergert threw 5-6 innings regularly, but the walk numbers are still the biggest concern.

Conclusion: Bergert has mid to back-end starter potential. After the dominant display in 2023, only allowing 77 hits in 105.2 innings, a case can be made for #3 starter potential. Look for the Padres to challenge Bergert in 2024.

ETA: July 2024

 

Robby Snelling, LHP (Double-A, 6’3/210)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2023	AA	103.2	1.82	1.12	28.4%	8.2%

Overview: Snelling had the best full-season debut for a prospect in 2023, bursting onto the scene with a sub-2 ERA and reaching Double-A at just 19 years old. A large presence on the mound at 6’3 210 pounds, Snelling aggressively throws downhill when he’s on the mound.

Fastball: Snelling is a big kid at 6’3, 210 which allows him to consistently work at 94/95 mph with the potential to hit the upper 90s. Great velocity for a young lefty, Snelling has an above-average fastball.

Slider: The best pitch for the young lefty, Snelling has a plus slider that works in the low to mid-80s. At times it can lose its shape, but Snelling is still developing as a pitcher and it’s his best pure pitch.

Changeup: His weakest pitch, Snelling is still working on his changeup and rarely uses it as a strikeout pitch. When he did throw it, hitters often didn’t expect and swung through it with an aggressive swing.

Biggest Concerns: Third pitch and command/location. Watching Snelling pitch, a lot of the pitches were over the plate but because his slider is so good, they were swing and misses. The development of his changeup as well as learning how to become a pitcher are crucial to making Snelling a frontline starter.

Conclusion: An impressive professional debut for Snelling has made him one of the biggest rising prospects in baseball. He has a chance to become a #2 starter if he can improve the changeup and command. Regression is most likely coming in 2024 as Snelling will be tested in 2024 at just 20 years old.

ETA: September 2024

 

Austin Krob, LHP (High-A, 6’3/205)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A	4.1	10.38	1.85	17.4%	8.7%
2023	A+	109.1	2.72	1.34	26.4%	9.1%

Overview: Another Padre with a breakout year in 2023, Krob established himself as a starter between Low-A and High-A. A bit on the older side for a prospect, now 24 years old, Krob should report to Double-A to begin his 2024 campaign.

Fastball: More of a command pitch in the low 90s, Krob throws his fastball to get weak contact or get ahead in the count.

Curveball: A high 70s breaking ball, Krob doesn’t throw this pitch as much because it is his weakest pitch.

Slider: His second-best pitch, Krob has a mid-80s slider that has good break. This pitch plays well against left-handed hitters.

Changeup: The best and most consistent pitch Krob throws, his change is mid-80s like his slider but plays well with that pitch as it has good opposite fade.

Biggest Concerns: Stuff. Krob lacks the overpowering stuff to make himself a strikeout pitcher despite totaling 124 in 109.1 innings in 2023. Krob profiles as an inning-eating back-end starter for now.

Conclusion: Good sink on his fastball and good size at 6’3, 205 pounds gives Krob a great opportunity to pitch in the back end of a rotation. Spot starts are a big possibility in 2024 before Krob gets a full look as a starter in the Majors.

ETA: July 2024

 

San Francisco Giants

Kyle Harrison, LHP (MLB, 6’2/200)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A	98.2	3.19	1.40	35.7%	11.8%
2022	AA	113	2.71	1.13	39.8%	10.5%
2023	MLB	67.2	4.52	1.48	36.2%/23.8%	15.9%/7.5%

Overview: Elite strikeout numbers at every stop, the question with Harrison was always his command. 2021 and 2022 were slightly high and in 2023 Harrison fell victim to the worst walk percentage in his professional career at 15.9%.Three plus pitches allow Harrison to rack up the strikeouts as he’s accrued 452 in 279.1 minor league innings.

Fastball: The best pitch that Harrison throws is a mid to high 90s fastball that draws plus swing and miss numbers. A plus pitch, the fastball will allow Harrison to rack up the strikeouts, but he’ll need to keep his command in check. His fastball was sitting 94/95 in his MLB home debut and was his main strikeout pitch against the Cincinnati Reds.

Slider: His second-best offering is the low 80s slider that has nasty break. Harrison made Elly De La Cruz look silly on this pitch during his 11-strikeout game on August 28^th.

Changeup: Harrison mixes in a good changeup that does its job and keeps hitters off balance. He can use this pitch as a strikeout pitch as well but it’s not currently on the same level as his other two offerings.

Biggest Concerns: Command. There is no question that Harrison has ace potential but the regression in already poor command will limit him. Harrison has been prone to the long ball as well, giving up 8 home runs in his first 29.2 MLB innings.

Conclusion: Walks and command are the toughest pitching prospects to get behind, but Harrison is still 22 years old and already debuted in the Majors. Expect Harrison to get a full workload at the Major League level in 2024. Harrison has the potential to be Blake Snell if it all comes together.

ETA: Opening Day 2024

 

Carson Whisenhunt, LHP (Double-A, 6’3/209)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A	7.2	0.00	0.91	46.7%	3.3%
2023	AA	58.2	2.45	1.02	35.3%	9.8%

Overview: A solid three-pitch mix, Whisenhunt gets most of his outs from his nasty changeup. His mid-90s fastball has enough movement to keep hitters from squaring it up. At 6’3, 209 pounds there’s a chance for a velocity jump in his fastball.

Fastball: A low to mid-90s fastball, Whisenhunt is 6’3 and 209 so he may be able to see a velocity jump. If the consistent jump in velocity doesn’t happen, Whisenhunt has still hit 95 mph with his heater.

Curveball: His third offering is a high 70s curve that he hasn’t needed so far. If Whisenhunt develops his curveball to be an above-average pitch, he’s looking at #2 starter potential behind Kyle Harrison in San Francisco for years to come.

Changeup: The best pitch Whisenhunt throws is his plus changeup with excellent movement. There’s a chance this is a plus-plus pitch already with the amount of swing and misses he gets.

Biggest Concerns: Command. Not too much about Whisenhunt concerns me, maybe his ceiling and command but they are minor concerns currently. 23 walks in 58.2 innings isn’t ideal but his first full season was a huge success.

Conclusion: Whisenhunt is very advanced, and hitters weren’t much of an issue even at the Double-A level in 2023. The Giants could give Whisenhunt a chance to win a rotation spot when spring training starts in 2024.

ETA: June 2024

 

Mason Black, RHP (Triple-A, 6’3/230)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A+	112	3.21	1.17	29.4%	7.8%
2023	AAA	123.2	3.71	1.21	30.3%	10.2%

Overview: Another starter with a big frame, Black is 6’3 and 230 pounds, giving him plus velocity on his fastball. The lack of a third pitch could lead him to a reliever role, but he should get the chance to start in the Majors first.

Fastball: Mason Black has a plus fastball that sits in the mid-90s with good movement. If he needs to move to the bullpen this pitch will play very well and most likely sit in the upper 90s in shorter stints.

Slider: His best pitch, Black has a devastating slider that makes right-handed hitters look foolish. He can mix this in with his fastball and get most hitters to swing and miss those two alone. Black gets a lot of ugly swings on this pitch and when hitters sit on it, he’s able to throw his fastball by them.

Changeup: His third pitch is his rarely used changeup, mostly because he doesn’t need it. If he develops this pitch, Black will most certainly stick as a starter.

Biggest Concerns: Command. Like Harrison and Whisenhunt, Black has great stuff, but the biggest issue is his ability to throw strikes. Black saw his walk percent jump when he was promoted from Double-A to Triple-A in 2023, which raises concerns for a jump to the MLB level.

Conclusion: Mason Black is most likely to get a shot to crack the 2024 rotation before teammate Carson Whisenhunt, but both are likely to get a good look. If he doesn’t crack the rotation, Black should be the first to be called upon if an MLB starter gets injured.

ETA: June 2024

 

Hayden Birdsong, RHP (Double-A, 6’4/215)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2022	A	11.2	3.09	1.11	47.9%	6.3%
2023	AA	100.2	3.31	1.22	34.9%	10.3%

Overview: A 6th-round pick in 2022, Birdsong has been solid to start his professional career. A 3.28 ERA across 112.1 minor league innings with a stunning 172 strikeouts has made Birdsong one of the Giants’ best pitching prospects. Birdsong has a good fastball combined with 3 average pitches with a slider that flashes above average.

Fastball: A mid to high 90s fastball is the best offering Birdsong has and was able to throw it past younger competition to start 2023. His fastball is either his best or second-best pitch depending on how his curve looks that day.

Curveball: Arguably his best pitch, Birdsong throws a nasty curve with a lot of late break. This works well in tandem with his fastball to get most hitters to swing and miss for strike three.

Slider: His slider is a mid-80s horizontal breaking pitch that is developing like his changeup for an average pitch.

Changeup: A low 80s changeup, Birdsong has shown this could be an average pitch if he locates it consistently.

Biggest Concerns: Command. In his first full season starting, Birdsong saw his walk rate jump to 10.3%. Birdsong only allowed 79 hits in his 100.2 innings during the 2023 season, so the 44 walks didn’t hurt him. As Birdsong was promoted, the hits against started to get closer to 1 per inning, which is why his Double-A success wasn’t as great as the lower levels.

Conclusion: The Giants seem to be developing Birdsong as a starter and it was a good first full season. Birdsong will most likely start the 2024 season at Double-A, with a fresh arm we could see the walks and hits against regress to look more like his Low-A and High-A numbers.

ETA: August 2024

 

Landon Roupp, RHP (Double-A, 6’2/205)

YEAR	HIGHEST LEVEL	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
2021	A	8	2.25	0.88	45.2%	3.2%
2022	AA	107.1	2.60	1.01	35.2%	8.6%
2023	AA	31	1.74	1.00	35%	7.5%

Overview: Roupp broke out in 2022 as he totaled 152 strikeouts in 107.1 innings with a 2.60 ERA. Roupp has done a great job in his minor league career limiting hits against him with just 99 in 146.1 innings. Roupp is 25 years old and should be pushed in spring training or early on in 2024 to see if he can throw meaningful innings for the Giants at the MLB level.

Fastball: A low to mid-90s fastball, Roupp throws his fastball more as a sinker providing weak contact. His third-best pitch, Roupp has some two-seam sink action to it which he throws backdoor to right-handed hitters often.

Curveball: Playing off his slider, Roupp throws a plus curveball that moves horizontally like his slider but has plenty of vertical break as well. This causes hitters to guess which off-speed is coming giving Roupp another clear advantage.

Slider: A nasty pitch, Roupp gets a ton of horizontal movement on his slider. He isn’t afraid to throw this pitch as a backdoor slider to lefties and he commands it well.

Changeup: His weakest pitch, Roupp rarely throws his changeup but it could end up being an average offering due to his good movement.

Biggest Concerns: Reliever risk. Roupp has a plus curveball with a slider that flashes above average which could play up even more in short stints. If starting doesn’t pan out, he could switch to a long relief role of 2-4 innings.

Conclusion: Most likely a back-end rotation pitcher, Roupp has the upside with his strikeouts to be a solid #4 starter. If his other pitches don’t develop that’s most likely where he’s headed but the potential is there.

ETA: July 2024

 

Graphic adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)