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Top SP: Yonny Chirinos, TB ($8,900) vs. BAL
In the traditional sense of a top starter, you can’t go wrong with any of Chris Sale, Walker Buehler, or Stephen Strasburg as your ace. But if you’re looking for a cheaper option, Chirinos will provide you with lots of value and is worth a look as your top starter. Chirinos has a shiny 3.10 ERA and gets a beautiful matchup against the Orioles, who have just a .299 wOBA against right-handed pitching. They’re even worse away from their home park, with a .287 wOBA and a 25.2% strikeout rate. Chirinos can easily dismantle this lineup in his pitcher-friendly home environment in what should be his sixth straight quality start.
Value SP: Danny Duffy ($7,100) vs. CLE
Wow, so Danny Duffy is pretty bad, huh? Wait, why am I recommending him here again? Oh, that’s right, Duffy faces a weak opponent in the Indians, who rank 25th in wOBA against lefties with their .300 mark. Duffy has actually been solid lately, with back-to-back quality starts including a strong eight-inning performance against a tough Twins lineup. Duffy is quite cheap and is a lot better than any of the options around his price range—not a sexy play, but you’ve made it this far in the write-up, right?
Votto has been raking over the past month, batting .322 with a .939 OPS and finally resembling the hitter he is known to be. He’s still pretty affordable and is facing an awful starter in Chacin, who has a 5.86 FIP with a 1.87 HR/9 and a 10.8% walk rate. Votto is a great target in cash games for his on-base skills and his position batting second in the Reds lineup, where he can rack up runs and RBI. Votto’s a safe bet in an extremely hitter-friendly park at home.
Jimenez managed to get the hang of big league pitching in the month of June, posting a 145 wRC+ with eight homers. Eloy’s prolific power and boom-or-bust profile make him a perfect candidate for your GPP lineups, especially in this matchup against Norris. Norris has a 1.58 HR/9, which is a good fit for our homer-chasing play. Norris’s 4.62 ERA means that Jimenez should produce even if he doesn’t go deep.
While Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara sports a 3.86 ERA, his underlying stats show how bad he’s actually been. Alcantara has a 5.54 SIERA thanks to a weak 15.9% strikeout rate and a 10.5% walk rate, and the Nats just hung six runs on him in his last time out. I’m going back to the Nationals tonight and focusing on Eaton, who is a cheap option batting second for Washington. Pair Eaton with some Nationals teammates, and you can get runs out of Eaton and RBI out of the hitters behind him.
Lineup Stack: Tigers at White Sox (RHP Dylan Cease)
I know everybody is excited to watch Cease debut, but things can easily go wrong in a pitcher’s first career start. There are lots of cheap Tigers hitters of whom you can take advantage, with Nicholas Castellanos ($4,200) as the most expensive option. Miguel Cabrera ($3,500) and JaCoby Jones ($3,900) provide options for a value stack that likely won’t be owned much, making for contrarian plays.
Honorable Mentions: Nationals vs. Marlins (Alcantara); Rays vs. Orioles (LHP John Means).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is troyklauder) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.
Graphic by Justin Paradis (@FreshMeatComm on Twitter).