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Top Play SP: Mike Clevinger, CLE ($12,000) at WAS
Well, we’ve finally made it! As we prepare to put a bow on the regular season I want to take a moment to thank everybody for reading and I hope that you were able to find these articles helpful in the never-ceasing pursuit for DFS glory. Before we get into it the most important thing to note for today is possible playoff implications. The Brewers and the Cardinals are tied and hence both vying for the NL Central Division title. So we can expect both teams to treat today like a must-win contest. Everything else has seemingly been wrapped up as of this writing. Gerrit Cole (34% K-BB, 35.2% CSW, 2.63 SIERA) has more or less led all arms in every meaningful statistic this season but with the Astros having locked up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs you’d anticipate a somewhat abbreviated outing today as they get ready for a deep run. That brings us to Mike Clevinger (27.4% K-BB, 34.6% CSW, 3.23 SIERA) who has been an absolute stalwart for the Indians in the second half. It’s a tough Nationals lineup certainly but Clevinger’s 34.8% K rate provides him with such an exceptional floor.
Another option in the upper tier today is Eduardo Rodriguez (15.9% K-BB, 28.8% CSW, 4.33 SIERA). He had been on a phenomenal run prior to his most recent dud of an outing against the Rangers his last time out. Rodriguez is, of course, a much more volatile option than either Cole or Clevinger but there is certainly upside with him especially considering his cheaper price tag. The Red Sox playoff hopes have long since been dashed but they should afford E-Rod every opportunity to earn that ever-elusive 2oth win this afternoon against the Orioles.
And finally, if you’re looking to go under the $10,000 threshold for your SP 1, Jack Flaherty (22.8% K-BB, 30.9% CSW, 3.69 SIERA) looks like like the best option. The Cardinals were hoping to save him for the postseason but with the division on the line he’ll be pressed into duty today against a watered-down Cubs lineup that was just dominated by Dakota Hudson.
Value SP: Spencer Turnbull, DET ($7,400) at CWS
I’ll be honest, the value tier is a scary place to be for this final day of the 2019 season. Spencer Turnbull (12.8% K-BB, 25.7% CSW, 4.68 SIERA) has shown the best skills of the options here with a respectable 22% K rate. He’s been a bit more vulnerable to LHB this year allowing a .355 wOBA but thankfully the White Sox lineup doesn’t really feature too many threatening lefties outside of Yoan Moncada.
Top Play: SS Jorge Polanco, MIN ($4,500) at KC
Hopefully, the Twins play their full lineup today because this looks like an excellent price for Jorge Polanco (.355 wOBA, 122 wRC+). He’s been fantastic for the Twins as their two-hole hitter getting on base at a .359 clip in front of the Boomstick Nelson Cruz. The Twins are set up well today against the suspect KC RHP Jorge Lopez (12.2% K-BB, 27.2% CSW, 4.63 SIERA). His teammate Eddie Rosario (.331 wOBA, 105 wRC+) is also priced nicely as the probable cleanup hitter.
At a similar price, Yoan Moncada (.376 wOBA, 138 wRC+) looks like a very nice tournament play against the Tiger RHP Spencer Turnbull (12.8% K-BB rate, 25.7% CSW, 4.68 SIERA) who has ceded a .355 wOBA to enemy LHB.
Honorable mentions: SS Francisco Lindor ($4,600) at WAS (Ross); 3B Yoan Moncada ($4,800) vs. DET (Spencer Turnbull); OF Eddie Rosario ($4,800) at KC (Lopez); 3B ($4,200) Matt Chapman at SEA (Dunn/Milone); OF ($4,300) Tommy Pham at TOR (Buchholz).
Top Play: 2B/3B Mike Moustakas, MIL ($5,100) at COL
As mentioned previously the Brewers are one team that has something to fight for this afternoon. And it’s a great matchup for them too as they’ll get to face Jeff Hoffman (11.2% K-BB, 27% CSW, 5.07 SIERA) at Coors Field. Mike Moustakas (.344 wOBA, 111 wRC + 2018-19) sat out a couple of games due to an elbow issue but returned last night so he should be good to go here. There could also be some favorable winds at Coors so keep an eye out there as that would only add to the upside. This sets up well for this entire offense so the Brewers look like top priorities today. It’s unlikely we see Ryan Braun until the postseason but the other bats here in Yasmani Grandal (.361 wOBA, 121 wRC+), Keston Hiura (.397 wOBA, 145 wRC+), and Eric Thames (.354 wOBA, 117 wRC+) are all excellent options to consider as well.
Value: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL ($4,200) vs. CHC
I usually like to keep the value options at under $4,000 if possible but we’ll spend a little extra for Paul Goldschmidt (.346 wOBA, 116 wRC+) who should be in the lineup today as the Cardinals look to wrap up the NL Central. The Cubs will be dusting off Derek Holland (11.3% K-BB, 29.8% CSW, 4.80 SIERA) who has coughed up an ugly .394 wOBA to opposing RHB including a whopping 18 home runs in just 82.1 IP. Ouch. Holland probably won’t be long here but regardless I’ll gladly take a player of Goldschmidt’s caliber against the southpaw and an assortment of Cubs relievers for just $4,200.
Honorable mentions: OF Ian Desmond ($4,000) vs. MIL (Houser); 3B Manny Machado ($4,000) at ARI (Walker/Young); C Yadier Molina ($3,700) vs. CHC (Derek Holland); 1B Nate Lowe ($3,900) at TOR (Clay Buchholz); OF Dexter Fowler ($3,500) vs. CHC (Derek Holland); 2B Gavin Lux ($3,300) at SF (Rodriguez); 1B/OF Josh VanMeter at PIT (Trevor Williams).
Top Stack: MIL at COL (Hoffman)
The Red Sox get a nice draw against Chandler Shepherd who will function as an opener of sorts as he’ll most likely be limited to about seventy pitches or so. He’s been terrible with a 17.5% K rate, 1.64 WHIP, and 5.12 SIERA. And Lord knows the Orioles do not have any Cy-Young contenders lurking in that bullpen of theirs. Really it’ll depend on what the Red Sox lineup looks like on the final day of a lost season. If we get their full lineup today I’d definitely have a lot of interest here especially in tournaments.
The Astros get a beatable matchup against LHP Dillon Peters (9.4% K-BB, 26.6% CSW, 5.13 SIERA) who has surrendered an ugly .383 wOBA to RHB. So this sets up well for their excellent righty bats if they are starting today.
Justin Dunn will be firing the opening salvo for the Mariners today. He’ll then be followed by the lefty Tommy Milone (15.7% K-BB, 29.4% CSW, 4.31 SIERA). Point being this isn’t a matchup we should be too afraid of and the A’s lineup features plenty of excellent bats that are all priced very nicely relative to their upside. Matt Chapman, in particular, stands out at just $4,200. Although, now that they have locked up home field advantage for the Wild Card game we may see their B lineup today.
The Rays also get a nice matchup against Clay Buchholz (7.7% K-BB, 27.8% CSW, 5.36 SIERA) who has surrendered a .372 wOBA to LHB and a .402 mark to RHB. Both Tommy Pham (.348 wOBA, 121 wRC+) and Brandon Lowe (.354 wOBA, 125 wRC+) are priced nicely here at $4,300. While the rookie Nate Lowe would be an excellent value at $3,900 if he’s in there today.
For today’s top stack though we’ll go with the Brewers who as mentioned earlier are tied with the Cardinals at the top of the NL Central so they are one of the two teams fighting for playoff implications today. Below you’ll see their projected lineup with wOBA and wRC+ from this year.
|Trent Grisham OF||$5,300||.324||97|
|Yasmani Grandal C||$4,900||.361||121|
|Mike Moustakas 2B/3B||$5,100||.350||114|
|Keston Hiura 2B||$5,500||.397||145|
|Eric Thames 1B||$5,300||.354||117|
|Lorenzo Cain OF||$5,200||.300||81|
|Ben Gamel OF||$4,200||.307||86|
|Orlando Arcia SS||$3,800||.267||60|
Unfortunately it looks like they may have lost Lorenzo Cain to an ankle injury last night but still there are some good bats at the top of the order that should do some damage against Jeff Hoffman (11.2% K-BB, 27% CSW, 5.07 SIERA) at Coors Field. For his career, Hoffman has surrendered a .413 wOBA against RHB so even if you choose not to stack the Brewers, Keston Hiura looks like a great top end option at 2B today.
Honorable mentions: BOS vs. BAL (Shepherd); MIN at KC (Lopez); TB at TOR (Buchholz); OAK at SEA (Dunn/Milone).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.