Pitcher List is proud to partner with DraftKings for the 2019 season. We’ll be featuring our top picks for every daily slate through the season.
Tonight’s main slate on DraftKings features 10 games, starting at 7:05 pm/EDT.
Top Play SP: Gerrit Cole, HOU ($12,800) vs. TEX
There’s not really any high-end pitching on tonight’s slate other than Cole, so if you’re serious about spending at starting pitcher, he’s a no-brainer in this matchup. The Rangers strike out 25.5% of the time against right-handed pitching, and Cole has a ridiculous 39.4% strikeout rate of his own. With just a 2.62 ERA and a 2.74 FIP, it’s nearly impossible to find any other pitcher who combines such a high floor with astronomical upside. Cole will be chalk on many slates, but for good reason, so don’t feel like you need to be a contrarian.
Honorable mention: Aaron Civale ($9,400) vs. DET.
Value SP: Adrian Houser, MIL ($5,300) vs. SD
Even with his recent struggles, it’s surprising to see Houser at such a low price—especially when you see how awful some of the options ahead of him are. Houser has a solid 3.84 ERA on the year with a respectable 25.1% strikeout rate. His value mostly comes from his matchup, as the Padres have a very weak .302 wOBA against righties. Their 26.3% strikeout rate versus right-handers is also second-highest in the bigs. While Houser likely won’t work deep into this start, he’s a great way to save some payroll at starting pitcher.
Honorable mention: Dylan Bundy ($7,700) vs. TOR.
Aquino has had a rough September but was able to get back on track last night with a two-run homer. Aquino has demolished lefties this year to the tune of a 148 wRC+, so it’s hard to avoid him at this price when he gets a southpaw. He’s a virtual must-play in GPP tournaments for his homer upside, as Lester has a 1.40 HR/9 to go with his 4.59 ERA. At the least, expect some RBI out of Aquino, who can take advantage of Cincinnati’s cleanup spot.
Belt’s home ballpark makes him look like a much weaker hitter than he is, as his OPS is more than 50 points higher on the road. Moving to an extreme hitter’s environment in Boston is huge for Belt’s value, and he was already able to homer in yesterday’s contest. He’s in a great spot to collect both runs and RBI batting second, and he faces a weak opener in Chacin, who has a 5.49 FIP.
Lineup Stack: Twins vs White Sox (RHP Ivan Nova)
If you’ve played much on DraftKings this year, you’re probably no stranger to stacking against Nova. He’s got a 5.10 ERA with an abysmal 14% strikeout rate. The Twins aren’t the cheapest lineup to stack, but you can get production out of virtually any spot in their lineup. Nelson Cruz ($5,200) and Miguel Sano ($5,000) are your guys on whom to break the bank, while Willians Astudillo ($3,200) and C.J. Cron ($3,900) are value pieces.
Honorable mentions: Reds at Cubs (Lester); Red Sox vs. Giants (RHP Jeff Samardzjia).
Graphic by Justin Paradis (@FreshMeatComm on Twitter).