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Top Play SP: James Paxton, NYY ($9,500) vs. COL
This is just a really nice price point for the Yankee lefty James Paxton. Earlier this year he was well into the $10,000 range. The Big Maple’s 28.8% K rate is just behind Blake Snell for the top mark of this afternoon’s ten game slate. This is a good potential ceiling spot for Paxton too when you consider that the Rockies have really struggled in making contact against lefties as their team K rate against southpaws sits at 26%. That’s good for 4th worst behind the Rangers, Tigers, and Rays. What’s more is that the Rockies have been dreadful on the road as their away team wOBA sits at .277. In case you are wondering that is the worst behind even the Marlins. The aforementioned Cy-Young winner Blake Snell is in a perfectly fine spot too if you’re looking to spend up more. He and the Rays will host the White Sox whose implied team total sits at just a shade over three runs.
Value SP: Zach Plesac, CLE ($7,000) vs. KC
The bottom tier for pitch is pretty frightening this afternoon. Zach Plesac hasn’t shown much upside so far in just under 50 innings pitched with just a 17.9% K rate. The hope here lies with the Indians being big home favorites (-220) against an impatient and light-hitting Royals team that will still be without one of their better hitters in Adalberto Mondesi.
If you’re wanting to spend a little extra at SP 2 Anthony DeSclafani could be someone to consider as well. He has some of the most pronounced splits you’ll see as he struggles mightily against lefties (21.7% K rate, .396 wOBA vs LHB) but handles RHB very well (26% K rate, .254 wOBA). This Cardinals lineup leans a little bit more right-handed right now with the absence of Matt Carpenter. However, given this game’s locale at the Great American Ball Park it’s definitely a risky proposition.
Honorable mention: Anthony DeSclafani ($8,300) vs STL (Flaherty).
3B: Rafael Devers, BOS ($5,500) at BAL
The Red Sox will be finishing up their trip to Camden Yards this afternoon after last night’s 16 run bludgeoning. They will be set to face the righty Asher Wojciechowski who has actually been sporting a very impressive 30.4% K rate across just 15 innings this year. Still, Vegas isn’t buying it at all as the Red Sox implied total currently sits at just under eight runs. Woah. Enter Rafael Devers who is enjoying a true breakout type season emerging as the Red Sox de facto 2 hole hitter. He’ll hold the platoon advantage against the questionable righty who, for his career, has allowed an ugly .422 wOBA to lefties.
Honorable mentions: OF Mookie Betts ($5,400) at BAL (Wojciechowski), OF Eddie Rosario ($5,000) vs OAK (Mengden), 3B/OF Khris Bryant ($4,900) vs SD (Morejon), OF Yordan Alvarez (GPP) ($4,900) vs TEX (Lynn), OF Aaron Judge (GPP) ($4,900) vs. COL (Marquez), OF Joey Gallo ($5,000) at HOU (Armenteros).
OF: Bryce Harper, PHI ($4,700) at PIT
Bryce Harper has been on a roll of late so this could be our last opportunity to buy at this price. He’ll be on the road against the Pirate’s righty Dario Agrazal who has been pretty dreadful across 22 innings this year with a 7.6% K rate (yes, that’s not a typo), 5.72 FIP, and 6.64 xFIP. Yikes. This looks like a pretty big advantage for Harper here.
Value: 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr, TOR ($3,400) at TOR
Hitting .245 with an OPS under .800 this isn’t quite the start that many imagined for the young phenom. But we know there is a world of talent here and this price point is way, way too good to pass up. Vladimir Guerrero Jr and the Jays will wrap up their series in Detroit this afternoon. There’s been some re-arranging of deck chairs with this rotation but as of this writing the starter in line appears to be the lefty Tyler Alexander. He has only made a brief cameo in the bigs this year with five innings pitched. However, his 5.72 ERA across 85 innings in AAA doesn’t look too imposing.
At a similar price point don’t overlook the A’s slugger Khris Davis. He’s been in a power drought of late but perhaps that is set to change this afternoon against big Michael Pineda who has long been homerun prone.
Honorable mentions: OF Khris Davis ($3,500) at MIN (Pineda), 1B Justin Smoak ($3,700) at DET (Alexander), 1B Miguel Cabrera ($3,000) vs. TOR (Waguespack), OF Dexter Fowler ($3,400) at CIN (DeSclafani), OF Jackie Bradley Jr ($3,600) at BAL (Wojciechowski), OF Nomar Mazara ($3,700) at HOU (Armenteros).
Top Stack: BOS at BAL (Wojciechowski)
All eyes will figure to be on Boston today especially after their outburst last night. And it’s hard to ignore considering their bonkers implied total that is currently sitting at just under eight runs. As mentioned earlier with Devers, today’s starter Wojciechowksi has shown to be really susceptible against lefties in particular. Still, J.D. Martinez at just $4,500 is awfully hard to ignore. In addition, there’s some potential value with Jackie Bradley Jr ($3,600) lower in the order.
The Twins also have a very solid implied total at just under six runs. They will be going against the A’s moustachioed man Daniel Mengden who has not been particularly sharp this year (17% K rate, 5.35 xFIP).
Honorable mentions: NYY vs COL (GPP) (Marquez), MIN vs OAK (Mengden), TOR at DET (Alexander).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.