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Top Play SP: Lucas Giolito, CHW ($11,200) at KC
Lucas Giolito has been a monster this year. He has a 30.1% strikeout rate, which is almost 11% higher then in 2018, and that number is fully supported by his 14.6% swinging-strike rate. Today, Giolitto gets a matchup with the Royals, who have the league’s third-worst wRC+ against right-handed pitching. I expect another dominant performance out of Giolito, which is why he’s getting locked into my SP1 spot today.
Honorable mention: Clayton Kershaw, LAD ($10,700) at PHI.
Value SP: Joe Musgrove, PIT ($5,800) at STL
Joe Musgrove has not had the greatest season, but this might just be the matchup where bad meets worse. Since May 15, the Cardinals have a wRC+ 0f 68 against right-handed pitching, which ranks dead last. In fact, the next closest team is the Tigers, who have a wRC+ of 76. Musgrove has been decent in his past four starts, putting up a 25.9% strikeout rate versus just a 1.2% walk rate, and he’s done that against the Cubs, Astros, Padres, and Brewers. Musgrove’s price is just too low for this time of matchup.
Honorable Mention: Jake Junis, KC ($7,500) vs. CHW.
Top Play: OF Cody Bellinger, LAD ($5,100) at PHI
There will be a more detailed writeup into why I like the Dodgers so much, but I figured we’ll start with their stud. Cody Bellinger has an absurd .366 ISO and .472 wOBA against right-handed pitching this year. He also has a 13% walk rate to go along with a 15.4% strikeout rate. He gets a matchup with Zach Eflin, who struggles against left-handed batters, allowing a .374 wOBA. It’s going to be a warm day in Philadelphia today, so the ball should be flying out of the park with ease.
Top Play: 3B/SS Alex Bregman, HOU ($4,400) at LAA
This is just too cheap for one of the best batters in the game. Alex Bregman is a plate discipline god. Against right-handed pitching, he’s struck out just 12.5% of the time, while he’s worked a walk 18.5% of the time. He has a .401 wOBA against righties this year. While his matchup against Griffin Canning certainly isn’t incredible, Canning has allowed a .226 ISO and .335 wOBA against right-handed batters this year. He’s also allowed a 40.1% hard-hit rate to all batters. I also love Bregman’s position eligibility, as being able to slot him in at third or shortstop makes it easy to get him into my lineup today.
Value: OF Jordan Luplow, CLE ($3,900) vs. DET
Jordan Luplow is a lefty masher, as noted by his .383 ISO against southpaws. Luplow faces Daniel Norris, who has just never lived up to his top-prospect hype. Among pitchers who have had at least 50 batted-ball events, Norris ranks 75th out of 440 pitchers in barrel percentage per plate appearance. I’ll be happy to pencil in Luplow for a bomb and lock him into my lineup today.
Top Stack: Dodgers at Phillies (RHP Zach Eflin)
As a Phillies fan, this is difficult for me, but as a realist, this is pretty obvious. Instead of Eflin taking a step forward against left-handed batters, he’s taken a big step backward. For the year, he’s allowed a .280 ISO and .374 wOBA against lefties, while allowing a 45.7% hard-hit rate. The Dodgers have five lefties in their projected lineup, and all of them hit right-handed pitching pretty hard. This makes our stack pretty easy to lay out. I’ll be locking in all the lefties, starting with Bellinger ($5,100), before moving on to Max Muncy ($4,600), Pederson ($4,200), Corey Seager ($4,200), and Alex Verdugo ($4,100). In case you needed just a little more incentive, the Phillies bullpen ranks third-worst in FIP. Good luck today.
Honorable mention: Red Sox vs. Blue Jays (RHP Tyler Thornton).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.