DraftKings Plays of the Day—7/15

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Top Play SP: Lucas Giolito, CHW ($11,200) at KC

 

Lucas Giolito has been a monster this year. He has a 30.1% strikeout rate, which is almost 11% higher then in 2018, and that number is fully supported by his 14.6% swinging-strike rate. Today, Giolitto gets a matchup with the Royals, who have the league’s third-worst wRC+ against right-handed pitching. I expect another dominant performance out of Giolito, which is why he’s getting locked into my SP1 spot today.

Honorable mention: Clayton Kershaw, LAD ($10,700) at PHI.

 

Value SP: Joe Musgrove, PIT ($5,800) at STL

 

Joe Musgrove has not had the greatest season, but this might just be the matchup where bad meets worse. Since May 15, the Cardinals have a wRC+ 0f 68 against right-handed pitching, which ranks dead last. In fact, the next closest team is the Tigers, who have a wRC+ of 76. Musgrove has been decent in his past four starts, putting up a 25.9% strikeout rate versus just a 1.2% walk rate, and he’s done that against the Cubs, Astros, Padres, and Brewers. Musgrove’s price is just too low for this time of matchup.

Honorable Mention: Jake Junis, KC ($7,500) vs. CHW.

 

Top Play: OF Cody Bellinger, LAD ($5,100) at PHI

 

There will be a more detailed writeup into why I like the Dodgers so much, but I figured we’ll start with their stud. Cody Bellinger has an absurd .366 ISO and .472 wOBA against right-handed pitching this year. He also has a 13% walk rate to go along with a 15.4% strikeout rate. He gets a matchup with Zach Eflin, who struggles against left-handed batters, allowing a .374 wOBA. It’s going to be a warm day in Philadelphia today, so the ball should be flying out of the park with ease.

Honorable mention: OF Andrew Benintendi, BOS ($4,300) vs. TOR; Joc Pederson, LAD ($4,200) at PHI.

 

Top Play: 3B/SS Alex Bregman, HOU ($4,400) at LAA

 

This is just too cheap for one of the best batters in the game. Alex Bregman is a plate discipline god. Against right-handed pitching, he’s struck out just 12.5% of the time, while he’s worked a walk 18.5% of the time. He has a .401 wOBA against righties this year. While his matchup against Griffin Canning certainly isn’t incredible, Canning has allowed a .226 ISO and .335 wOBA against right-handed batters this year. He’s also allowed a 40.1% hard-hit rate to all batters. I also love Bregman’s position eligibility, as being able to slot him in at third or shortstop makes it easy to get him into my lineup today.

Honorable mention: 2B/OF Cavan Biggio, TOR ($4,500) at BOS; 1B/2B Max Muncy, LAD ($4,600) at PHI; 1B Freddie Freeman, ATL ($5,200) at MIL.

 

Value: OF Jordan Luplow, CLE ($3,900) vs. DET

 

Jordan Luplow is a lefty masher, as noted by his .383 ISO against southpaws. Luplow faces Daniel Norris, who has just never lived up to his top-prospect hype. Among pitchers who have had at least 50 batted-ball events, Norris ranks 75th out of 440 pitchers in barrel percentage per plate appearance. I’ll be happy to pencil in Luplow for a bomb and lock him into my lineup today. 

Honorable mention: OF Jackie Bradley Jr., BOS ($3,800) vs. TOR; 2B Jose Altuve, HOU ($3,800) at LAA; OF Justin Upton, LAA ($3,700) vs. HOU; 3B/OF David Fletcher, LAA ($3,700) vs. HOU. 

 

Top Stack: Dodgers at Phillies (RHP Zach Eflin)

 

As a Phillies fan, this is difficult for me, but as a realist, this is pretty obvious. Instead of Eflin taking a step forward against left-handed batters, he’s taken a big step backward. For the year, he’s allowed a .280 ISO and .374 wOBA against lefties, while allowing a 45.7% hard-hit rate. The Dodgers have five lefties in their projected lineup, and all of them hit right-handed pitching pretty hard. This makes our stack pretty easy to lay out. I’ll be locking in all the lefties, starting with Bellinger ($5,100), before moving on to Max Muncy ($4,600), Pederson ($4,200), Corey Seager ($4,200), and Alex Verdugo ($4,100). In case you needed just a little more incentive, the Phillies bullpen ranks third-worst in FIP. Good luck today.

Honorable mention: Red Sox vs. Blue Jays (RHP Tyler Thornton).

 

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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