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Top Play SP: Logan Allen, SDP ($9,200) vs. SF
Super tiny six-game slate today, so we’re pretty short on aces. Mike Minor is the highest-priced pitcher at $10,500, but that comes along with a matchup against the “we don’t strikeout” Angels. So naturally, I’m locking in a pitcher with just 13 innings pitched in the majors as my SP1. Logan Allen was the Padres’ seventh-best prospect and has held his own in his first two starts, allowing just two runs over those 13 innings. Allen gets a cushy matchup at home against the Giants, making this play pretty safe.
Value SP: Adbert Alzolay, CHC ($6,400) at PIT
This is tough for me. On one hand, I really like Adbert Alzolay, and he’s certainly priced to play. On the other hand, the Pirates have one of the lowest strikeout rates against right-handed pitching. Alzolay has struggled with control in his first two appearances, walking six in 8.2 innings. However, he’s also allowed just two hits in that time and flashed a 26.5% strikeout rate, after having a 36.5% strikeout rate in 32 Triple-A innings this year. The value options are few and far between on today’s slate, but at this price, I’ll roll the dice with Alzolay.
Honorable Mention: Ryan Yarbrough, TBR ($6,500) vs. BAL.
Top Play: 2B/OF Whit Merrifield, KC ($4,800) at TOR
“Hard-hit” Whit Merrifield gets a matchup against his favorite kind of pitcher, a southpaw. Merrifield mashes lefties, as noted by his .283 ISO against them this year, while striking out just 15.7% of the time. Merrifield’s opponent, Clayton Richard, has not been amazing as noted by his 5.97 SIERA. He’s walking more batters than he’s striking out and has really struggled against righties, allowing a .323 ISO and .449 wOBA. This is the perfect matchup for Merrifield to go bananas.
Honorable mention: OF Austin Meadows, TB ($4,600) vs. BAL.
Top Play: 2B/3B Mike Moustakas, MIL ($5,000) at CIN
Mike Moustakas and the other Milwaukee lefties have to be excited for today’s matchup with Tyler Mahle. Mahle has been decent this year, as noted by his 3.97 SIERA and 24.4% strikeout rate, which is the highest of his career. However, the struggles against lefties has remained. Against left-handed batters, Mahle’s strikeout rate falls to 18.3%, and he has allowed a .282 ISO and .382 wOBA, which could be problematic when facing this Brewers lineup. The Brewers should have four lefties in the lineup today, all of whom have an wOBA greater than .376. For the season, Moustakas has a 47.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching, which has led to his .292 ISO and .393 wOBA.
Value: OF Delino DeShields, TEX ($3,800) vs. LAA
Delino DeShields had an excellent month of June and will look to keep things rolling in July. After a brutal start to the season, where he had just a 64 wRC+, DeShields was demoted to Triple-A. Upon his return on June 2, he hit the ground running and put up a 103 wRC+. DeShields should lead off against Angels lefty Jose Suarez. Suarez has managed to put up a 3.18 ERA in Triple-A this year despite his 12.3% walk rate. His time in the majors on the other hand has not gone as well. In 21 innings up at the show, Suarez still has an ugly 10% walk rate but has also allowed 2.57 HR/9, leading to his 5.26 SIERA.
Honorable mention: 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR ($3,900) vs. KC.
Top Stack: Blue Jays vs. Royals (RHP Glenn Sparkman)
My favorite part of picking on Glenn Sparkman is he doesn’t strike out anyone, as noted by his 12.6% strikeout rate. Right away, you remove some of the Blue Jays biggest weakness. The part that puts this stack a step higher is that the Royals bullpen has been pretty meh this year, allowing the eighth-worst wOBA in the league while striking out just 22.9% of batters. As of this writing, the Blue Jays also have the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.6 runs (to be fair, the Angles/Rangers and Orioles/Rays lines aren’t out yet). If I can afford it, I’d like to stack the top of this lineup starting with Eric Sogard ($4,900), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,900), Lourdes Gurriel ($5,400), and Cavan Biggio ($4,700). I also like cheaper power bats Rowdy Tellez ($4,200) and Randal Grichuk ($4,100). Good luck today!
Honorable mention: Brewers at Reds (RHP Tyler Mahle).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.