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Top Play SP: Aaron Nola, PHI ($9,700) at SDP
I feel like this is finally the spot that Mr. Tinker, Trevor Bauer, gets back to 2018 Bauer. Bauer opened the year completely fading his slider and curveball that were so good in 2018 in favor of a new changeup, which he threw 53% of the time in his first start of 2019. In his last start against the Rays, Bauer didn’t throw the changeup at all and was back to throwing the curveball/slider combo at 53%. Today, Bauer gets a matchup with the White Sox, who have the second-worst strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers at 26.8% and rank just 22nd in wOBA and 27th in ISO. This play does require a little bit of faith, but I feel he’s the best of the three high-end options on today’s slate.
Honorable mention: Walker Buehler, LAD ($8,900) at ARI.
Value SP: Corbin Martin, CLE ($7,100) at SEA
Why not double down on pitchers who are on the come up? Mike Foltynewicz made some progress in his past two starts against the Brewers and Cardinals, allowing two earned runs over the past 12 innings. I’m locking Folty into my cash lineup with his matchup against the Tigers. The Tigers currently have the third-worst strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, as well as the worst wOBA and 29th-worst ISO.
Honorable mention: Jon Lester, CHC ($7,000) vs. LAA.
Top Play: OF Kyle Schwarber, CHC ($4,100) vs. LAA
Michael Brantley‘s such an underrated bat, and it makes me so happy that he’s stayed healthy for a year and a half. For the season, Brantley has a 6.6% strikeout rate versus a 7.3% walk rate against right-handed pitchers. It’s hard to imagine, but a move from the Indians to the Astros gave a slight bump to his production. For the year, Brantley has a .245 ISO and .406 wOBA, which makes his matchup against Mike Fiers extra juicy. Including his no-hitter (props given), Fiers has a 5.07 SIERA while striking out just 16.8% of batters, so I expect a batter of Brantley’s caliber to eat today.
Honorable mention: OF Bryce Harper, PHI ($5,200) at SDP.
Top Play: 3B Alex Bregman, HOU ($4,900) at SEA
Today, Francisco Lindor says do not covet thy Dylan, as he gets a prime matchup with Dylan Covey. Lindor picked up right where he left off last season against righties, sporting a .212 ISO and .374 wOBA. Covey on the other hand, well, has been typical Covey. For the season, Covey has a 6.95 SIERA, which is well supported by his 15.5% walk rate to go along with is 11.2% strikeout rate. Covey has been smashed by left-handed pitching, allowing a .356 wOBA. I love locking Lindor into a scarce position today in my cash lineup.
Value: OF Myles Straw, HOU ($3,500) at SEA
You’re telling me I can get the potential leadoff man of a team with an implied run total of 5.1 for just $3,700? OK fine, twist my arm and force me into it. The Royals and Nicky Lopez have a matchup with Ariel Jurado, who’s been decent this year, sporting a 2.28 ERA, which is not supported by a 4.04 SIERA. Regression is coming, and today is the day.
Top Stack: Astros at Mariners (LHP Wade LeBlanc)
I honestly don’t know what to write here. The Rockies currently have a 7.3 (WHAT?!?!?!?!) implied run total, which is the highest I’ve seen this season to this point. The Rockies face Edwin Jackson, who’s allowed a 9.00 ERA in 2019 and in general is not fantastic at pitching. Of course, the problem is the price as no one in this lineup is less than $4,000, so I’m more likely to use the Rockies as a secondary stack. My priority would be with Nolan Arenado ($5,900) and Trevor Story ($5,700), but I’m more likely to get to David Dahl ($4,700), Raimel Tapia ($4,600), and Daniel Murphy ($4,800). Good luck today!
Honorable mention: Cubs vs. Angels (RHP Trevor Cahill).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.