DraftKings Plays of the Day – 5/19
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Top Play SP: Noah Syndergaard, NYM ($10,400) at MIA
Owner of a 4.74 ERA a quarter of the way through the season, to say that Noah Syndergaard’s 2019 has been a disappointment would be a big understatement. This is really all about the matchup. The Marlins have been making pedestrian pitchers look ace-caliber all season long. Although the reverse seemingly happened to Jacob DeGrom in his last outing. My goodness, what was that on Friday night? Anyways, back to the Marlins. Their .262 team wOBA is lowest by a large margin runner-up being the Blue Jays at .284. They’ve managed to score around 2.5 runs per game this year. Yeah, this offense is bad, historically bad even. The Mets and Syndergaard are the biggest favorites of today’s 10 game slate (-197 as of this writing).
Value SP: Shane Bieber, CLE ($9,000) vs BAL
The Indians will finish off a four-game set at home against the Orioles today. The O’s have been predictably a well below average offense this year (.298 team wOBA, 84 wRC+). Shane Bieber has continued to limit the walks and has shown a solid K rate too at 26.5%. In a plus matchup at home, Bieber looks like a safe option with upside too.
Honorable Mention: Jerad Eickhoff, PHI ($7,800) vs COL
OF: Cody Bellinger, LAD ($5,700) at CIN
What a season Cody Bellinger is having. He’s leading the Majors in hitting with a lusty .409 mark. Second place? The Mets Jeff McNeill who at .351 is a distant speck in the rear-view mirror. The Dodgers have one of the nicer implied team totals of the afternoon currently at over around 5 and a half runs. They will be facing Tanner Roark who has gotten good results so far posting a 3.50 ERA. But that is buoyed by less than convincing supporting stats. One thing that really sticks out is a microscopic 4.3% HR/FB. I’ll go out on a limb and say that that number doesn’t hold throughout the season especially pitching half of his games at the Great American Ball Park. I suspect that number will go up today against a patient and hard-hitting Dodgers team loaded with talent and that starts with Bellinger.
Honorable Mention: Mookie Betts ($5,000) vs HOU (Wade Miley)
OF: Marcell Ozuna, STL ($4,800) at TEX
The Cardinals, as of this writing, currently boast the slate’s highest implied total at right around 6 and a half runs. They’ll face Drew Smyly, owner of a ghastly 6.85 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in the hitter-friendly confines of Globe Life Park in Arlington. Once upon a time, Smyly showed some promise with the Rays but injuries have held him back having missed all of the past two seasons. He’s struggled immensely with his control this year evidenced by an ugly 14.2% BB% rate. So there should be plenty of run-scoring opportunities for which Marcell Ozuna can take advantage. This is a nice discount for Ozuna who was priced well into the $5,000 range earlier this year. He’ll hold the platoon advantage here against the aforementioned lefty in Smyly.
Honorable Mention: Jose Ramirez, ($4,100) vs BAL (Jefry Ramirez)
Value: 1B Yonder Alonso, CWS ($3,400) vs TOR
Trent Thornton has shown off some pretty respectable strikeout ability this year (25% K rate) but he’s also shown some pretty wide splits in favor of LHB. To be clear, we’re dealing with a small sample size but across his 43 IP this year he’s allowed a .364 wOBA to LHB as opposed to just .284 against RHB. In particular, his fastball has allowed a .469 wOBA (.426 xwOBA) to lefties so this looks like it could be an area to attack. No one is ever excited to roster Yonder Alonso but he has always hit RHP really well so he could provide us with some solid salary relief this afternoon.
Honorable Mention: Stephen Piscotty, ($4,000) at DET (Gregory Soto).
Top Stack: STL at TEX (LHP Drew Smyly)
For the same reasons mentioned earlier with Ozuna, the Cardinals look like a great team to target today. In addition to the walks, the batted ball data for Smyly is not too good including a .380 xwOBA and 10.1% barrel rate. From Ozuna to Paul Goldschmidt (who at $4,400 is absolutely too cheap today), Paul DeJong, and Jose Martinez there is a slew of quality righty bats to choose from here. The lefty Matt Carpenter is discounted ($3,800) due to poor performance, but he should at the very least be considered provided he is hitting leadoff. You could also consider Harrison Bader ($3,700) at the bottom of the order in GPPs.
Honorable Mention: LAD at CIN (Tanner Roark)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.