DraftKings Plays of the Day—5/13
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Top Play SP: Robbie Ray, ARI ($10,000) vs. PIT
Today’s slate is a tough one; as of this writing, there are no teams with implied run totals exceeding five runs. At first, I was skeptical to put Robbie Ray in this spot, but once I dug in, I was easily convinced. Ray currently has a 29.7% strikeout rate but has always had an elevated walk rate to go along with it, with this year’s being 12.4%. Ray faces the Pirates today, who have been absolutely dreadful against left-handed pitching. For the season, they rank dead last in wOBA and ISO and are third-worst in strikeout rate, but my favorite stat, the cherry on top, is that they have the lowest walk rate in the league against lefties. The Pirates have been relatively hot recently, so I wanted to see if maybe they’d been significantly better as of late. This month, the Pirates are 29th in wOBA, 30th in ISO, 15th in strikeout rate (21.2%), and 27th in walk rate (3.8%). Slightly better strikeout rate but not much else. I’ll be locking Ray into my cash lineups today.
Value SP: Brad Peacock, HOU ($8,500) @ DET
Brad Peacock‘s had a roller coaster start to the season. He currently sports a 4.30 ERA, with room to grow according to his 3.87 SIERA. The most concerning issue so far has been his strikeout rate, which is down about 5 percentage points from 2017, the last time he was used as a starter. However, he looked amazing in his most recent start against the Royals, going seven scoreless while striking out 12. Today, Peacock faces the Tigers, who have a righty-heavy lineup, perfect for Peacock, who has allowed just a .088 ISO and .216 wOBA versus right-handed batters with a 29.7% strikeout rate. For the season, the Tigers are 28th in wOBA, 27th in ISO, and have the sixth-worst strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
Honorable mention: Yusei Kikuchi, SEA ($7,500) vs. OAK.
Top Play: OF David Peralta, ARI ($5,100) vs. PIT
Today’s slate is really tough in terms of figuring out the bats to use. David Peralta is an easy “yes, please,” but he comes with a hefty price tag. Peralta has been excellent to start the season and currently has a .268 ISO and .417 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Today, Peralta faces Nick Kingham, who’s been crushed by lefties, allowing a 45% hard-hit rate to go along with his .346 ISO, .463 wOBA and walking the same number of left-handed batters as he’s striking out. I was planning on recommending the Diamondbacks as a stack, but they’re just stupid expensive, featuring four batters priced at $5,000 or more.
Honorable mention: OF Bryce Harper, PHI ($4,400) vs. MIL.
Top Play: 1B Dan Vogelbach, SEA ($4,500) vs. OAK
Dan Vogelbach has just crushed the baseball at the major league level. Vogelbach currently has a 44.6% hard-hit rate to go along with a .365 ISO and .448 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. He has struggled a little over the past couple weeks, but a matchup against Mike Fiers may just be what the doctor ordered. Fiers will look to follow up his no-hitter today, but the odds are not in his favor. The no-hitter only managed to lower his ERA on the year to 5.48, and he’s allowing a 39.2% hard-hit rate to left-handed batters.
Honorable mention: 3B Jose Ramirez, CLE ($4,300) @ CHW, 3B/SS Eduardo Escobar, ARI ($5,000) vs. PIT.
Value: SS J.P. Crawford, SEA ($3,300) vs. OAK
Here’s your usual, post-post-post-post-post hype sleeper punt play in J.P. Crawford. Crawford came over to the Mariners in the Jean Segura deal with the Phillies and has just torn up Triple-A, sporting a .319/.420/.457 triple slash. Crawford’s another of those Mariner lefties, who as you might’ve guessed will be featured in our next segment.
Honorable mention: OF Stephen Piscotty, OAK ($3,600) @ SEA, 1B Yonder Alonso, CHW ($3,400) vs. CLE.
Top Stack: Mariners vs. Athletics (RHP Mike Fiers)
The Mariners have only a 4.5 implied run total against Fiers, but I really like this matchup for them. Fiers has allowed a 41.9% hard-hit rate overall—so both lefties and righties are seeing the ball well—and he’s only striking out 17.4% of batters. So we can go to both sides of the plate in this one, which puts Mitch Haniger ($4,500), Edwin Encarnacion ($4,800), Domingo Sanatana ($4,800), Jay Bruce ($4,400), and Ryon Healy ($3,800) all in play. Good luck today!
Honorable mention: Twins vs. Angels (LHP Tyler Skaggs).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.