Pitcher List is proud to partner with DraftKings for the 2019 season. We’ll be featuring our top picks for every daily slate through the season and feature articles dedicated to the GPP.
|Road SP||xFIP||K%||K-BB%||ML||OK%||Home SP||xFIP||K%||K-BB%||ML||OK%|
All pitcher stats seen above are from the 2018-19 MLB seasons combined unless otherwise noted below.
* = Note Kikuchi will serve as an opener in this one and will be piggybacked by Justus Sheffield.
OK% = Opponent team strikeout rate (2019 year to date).
ML = Money Line.
This article was written the night before; some money lines may not yet be available (TBD).
SP: Collin McHugh, ARI ($8,300) vs. CLE
I sincerely hope you dodged Collin McHugh’s last start in Texas. That was ugly. The silver lining though is that we get a little bit of a discount this evening in a bounce-back spot at home against a Cleveland offense that has been very giving with the strikeouts (26.3%). There is certainly downside here as we saw his last time out but — McHugh has certainly shown upside this year too evidenced by two starts with nine strikeouts and a 26.2% strikeout rate overall this year. He’s a fairly sizeable home favorite this evening (-140) against a big-name pitcher in Corey Kluber.
There are a couple of other spots I’ll mention briefly here too. Jerad Eickhoff ($7,900) gets a great draw against the Marlins at home. Unfortunately, the weather looks pretty ominous in Philadelphia as of this writing, but if that game gets in, there’s nice upside at that price. Tyler Skaggs ($7,700) returns from the IL and gets a reasonable matchup against the Royals. In that same game, Danny Duffy ($6,500) makes his season debut. Worth noting he looked good in his latest minor league starting hitting 95 mph with his heater. He’s a tournament dart throw for those aggressively multi-entering this evening.
SP: Martin Perez, MIN ($6,800) vs. BAL
On a 15-game slate that features both Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, it’s a little weird to see Martin Perez as one of the biggest favorites of the night. Kudos to the Orioles for making the impossible possible. In his last start against these same Orioles, Perez was mediocre, but he gets them outside of hitter-friendly Camden Yards here. Perez has upped his velocity this year to just under 95 mph with his four-seamer (92.8 mph in 2018). The surface results have not been particularly good, but his swinging-strike rate currently sits at 11.8%, which could portend an increase in strikeout rate. In previous years, he sat at just over 7%. The Orioles have actually not struck out that much (21.7%), but they’re still a really weak offense. Perez also was able to get his pitch count up in his last start to 96, which is encouraging. The main selling points here are the cheap price and being a big home favorite.
OF: Ronald Acuna Jr, ATL ($5,000) vs. COL
This is just a chance to target a phenomenal talent in Ronald Acuna Jr. in a matchup that doesn’t really stand out on paper. Antonio Senzatela in a game away from Coors on a full 15-game slate probably won’t draw too much attention. Senzatela has shown a well below average strikeout rate of 17.7% for his career and a SIERA of 4.52, so this is certainly a pitcher of whom Acuna could take advantage — and we know what kind of power/speed ceiling he possesses. The Braves currently have one of the higher implied team totals of the slate at just over five runs.
3B: Matt Carpenter, STL ($4,100) vs. CIN
Anthony DeSclafani has some of the more extreme splits you’ll see. For his career, he’s stifled righties to a meager .288 wOBA while lefties have crushed him for a .359 mark. This is a potential get right sport for leadoff man Matt Carpenter. His Cardinals have one of the nicer implied team totals of the night at just under five runs.
3B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR ($4,300) vs. OAK
Way to bury the lede. In all seriousness, who isn’t excited to see Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? The fun part about this though is that this is actually a nice spot for his debut. We know that the Rogers Centre is a plus park for righty power. Facing the Jays this evening will be Mike Fiers. He’s an extreme fly-ball, low-strikeout pitcher who has coughed up 64 home runs in his past two seasons, so it’s not hard to imagine the young hitting prodigy entering the big stage with a bang this evening.
Speaking of big rookies making their debuts, Carter Kieboom ($3,300) is expected to be promoted prior to today’s game. Assuming he cracks the lineup, his very cheap price tag provides an intriguing buying opportunity in tournaments. He’ll face the lefty Matt Strahm, who has been merely passable as a starter in the early going.
OF: Eloy Jimenez CWS ($4,000) vs. DET
Eloy Jimenez should be set to return from the bereavement list this evening. He’ll be greeted immediately by a favorable matchup in Daniel Norris. Norris has shown limited swing-and-miss ability (18.2% strikeout rate this year) and diminished velocity now sitting at just over 90 mph as opposed to 93-plus earlier in his career. The White Sox are another offense that boasts a robust team total tonight at just under five runs, so this looks to be a good place to target hitters. The prodigiously talented rookie has struggled in the early going and hasn’t been in the lineup the past few day,s so there’s a reasonable chance he may be overlooked tonight. His teammate Jose Abreu ($4,500) is also certainly worth considering here too.
Tournament Stack: SEA vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Shelby Miller)
The Mariners offense hung two touchdowns on the Rangers last night. They are in another great spot tonight against Shelby Miller, who has been an unmitigated disaster the past two seasons with a 2.5 K-BB% and xFIP just under 6.00. Not good. His struggles will likely be magnified against an offense in the Mariners that so far has managed to walk at an impressive 9.9% clip and pace the league in home runs.
The Phillies too, are also worth a long look in a matchup against an average at best Jose Urena at hitter-friendly Citizen’s Bank Park, but unfortunately, this game looks like it may be washed out.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.