DFS Plays of the Day – September 4

Rich Holman previews the top DFS plays for September 4th's slate.

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There are an incredible 2o games being played today. However, because of all the 7-inning doubleheaders, we get just a 9-game main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. It’s a weird pitching slate today. In Chicago, we have a great pitchers matchup between Yu Darvish and Jack Flaherty. After those two aces though, things descend pretty rapidly. Let’s dive in. As always, make sure you check FTN’s Lineups Page once lineups are out.

 

Top SP: Yu Darvish, CHC ($11,000 DK, $11,200 FD) vs. STL

 

All of the high priced pitchers have matchups that span from “not ideal” to “tough”. Dylan Bundy gets the Angels who haven’t necessarily been hot, but they’ve been pesky, posting a 6.4 K-BB%. Jack Flaherty has only gone 5 IP each of his last two starts after St. Louis’s COVID break and gets a Cubs offense that is pretty hot.

Personally, I may just pay down at both my SP slots and get all of the expensive bats, but in cash games, I’m headed straight to the top with Yu Darvish. The Cubs’ ace has been great this year, maintaining the “gains” he made in his walk rate last year. Darvish has managed to keep the strikeout rate above 30%, while his hard-hit rate is down to 27.1% – the best of his career. Today, Darvish gets the Cardinals, who are no walk in the park. Their offense has been humming, posting a .347 team wOBA over the last 14-days. During that time they’ve only struck out 17.7% of the time while walking at a 13% clip. Like the other aces today, this is a tough matchup. However, Darvish has one of the highest upsides on the slate and has the skills to combat the Cardinals patient hitters.

Honorable Mentions: Carlos Carrasco, CLE ($10,200 DK, $9,300 FD) vs. MIL

 

Value SP: Dane Dunning, CHW ($5,800 DK, $7,700 FD) at KC

 

Is anyone interested in a $5,800 pitcher that has averaged over 19 DK points per game? Dane Dunning has been excellent to start his major league career. He’s struck out 14 batters in 9.1 IP and allowed just three earned runs. He faced these same Royals in his last start and went five no-hit innings while allowing just one baserunner. Over the last 14 days, the Royals have posted a team wOBA of .306 and have a hard-hit rate that ranks in the bottom third of the league. I expect Dunning to be very popular today, but in cash games as my SP2, this is chalk that I’m willing to eat.

Honorable Mentions: Corbin Burnes, MIL ($8,000 DK, $7,600 FD) at CLE; Yusei Kikuchi, SEA ($5,700 DK, $6,300 FD) vs. TEX

 

OF Mike Yastrzemski, SF ($5,700 DK, $3,900 FD) vs. ARI

 

Mike Yastrzemski has been such a fun player to watch this year. He’s crushing the ball in San Francisco and has mashed 8 homers while leading off for the Giants. One of the most impressive things that he’s shown this year is the gains he’s made in his plate discipline. Yastrzemski’s walk rate is all the way up to 14.9% which has contributed towards an OBP that is over .400. Today Yastrzemski gets a matchup against Taylor Clarke, who has been decent in his last two starts. In that time, Clarke has allowed just 2 earned runs over 9 IP while striking out 11 batters. However, during that time he’s also allowed a hard-hit rate of 38%. After Clarke, the Giants will see a Diamondbacks bullpen that has allowed 34 runs to score in their last 41.1 IP. If they don’t get to Clarke early, they’ll get to the bullpen late.

Honorable Mentions: Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF ($5,500 DK, $4,300 FD) vs. COL; Michael Conforto, OF ($4,800 DK, $3,300 FD) vs. PHI

 

1B/3B Max Muncy, LAD ($5,100 DK, $3,600 FD) vs. COL

 

Max Muncy has finally started heating up as he has hits in 5 of his last 6 games, including two multi-hit games. He and the Dodgers get a matchup with Antonio Senzatela who has been decent to start the year (at least compared to what we’re used to). Despite Senzatela’s early success, he allowed six earned runs to these same Dodgers just 10 days ago. I’m looking for Muncy to keep the good times rolling today. FTN’s Lineup Optimizer also has the Dodgers at the highest team total on the slate at 5.8 runs.

Honorable Mentions: Rhys Hoskins, 1B ($4,600 DK, $4,000 FD) at NYM; Manny Machado, 3B ($5,500 DK, $4,000 FD) at OAK

 

Value Batter: 1B/OF José Marmolejos, SEA ($2,100 DK, $2,800 FD) vs. TEX

 

Since returning to the club, Jose Marmolejos has been so hot that he currently ranks third on FTN’s Hot Hitter Report. Marmolejos has hit safely in all six of his games since the August 27th recall, including hitting three homers. The Mariners have one of my favorite matchups of the day as they get a matchup against the Rangers in a bullpen game. Over the last 7 days, the Rangers bullpen has allowed a 5.32 team ERA. I like the Mariners as a cheap stack if you’re paying up for Yu Darvish today.

Honorable Mentions: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 3B ($2,800 DK, $2,600 FD) at SEA; Jay BruceOF ($2,700 DK, $3,000 FD) at NYM

 

Lineup Stack: Padres at Athletics (LHP Jesus Luzardo)

 

I was all over the Padres yesterday against a lefty in Andrew Heaney. As a team, they’ve been really hot against southpaws, but ultimately, Heaney was able to hold them down. I’m heading right back to the well today against a lefty in hopes that recency bias will keep their ownership down. Despite doing nothing last night, the Padres have still managed a team wOBA of .410 over the last 7 days. If you’re stacking the Padres, you have to start with Fernando Tatis, Jr. ($5,600 DK, $4,700 FD) and Manny Machado ($5,500 DK, $4,000 FD). From there we can add Wil Myers ($4,600 DK, $3,400 FD), Austin Nola ($4,500 DK, $2,800 FD), and lefty Eric Hosmer ($4,600 DK, $3,900 FD), who has hit lefties really well this year. Good luck today!

Honorable Mentions: Phillies at Mets (RHP Rick Porcello); Dodgers vs. Rockies (RHP Antonio Senzatela); Giants vs. Diamondbacks (RHP Taylor Clarke); Mariners vs. Rangers (RHP Kyle Cody)

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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