The final Tuesday of the season greets us with a 13-game slate. We’ve got the Red Sox at Camden Yards, Coors Field, and plenty of pitching to sift through. Without further ado, let’s take a look.
Top Tier Pitching
|Brandon Woodruff||at STL||$10,300/ $10,200||-118||175.1||23.9%||30%||13%||0.95||2.52||3.19|
|Walker Buehler||vs SD||$9,100/ $9,500||-181||195.2||19.1%||29.2%||11.3%||0.98||2.58||3.16|
|Yu Darvish||at LAD||$9,300/ $8,800||166||162.1||23.2%||30.1%||12.1%||1.07||4.21||3.26|
|Chris Sale||at BAL||$9,400/$10,000||-265||35||20.9%||30.1%||13.1%||1.29||2.57||3.46|
|Charlie Morton||vs PHI||$9,200/ $8,600||-118||176||20.4%||31%||12.2%||1.07||3.53||3.41|
|Zack Wheeler||at ATL||$10,500/ $10,700||109||206.1||23.7%||28%||12.4%||1.02||2.79||2.80|
Walker Buehler has not been great this September. Then again, neither have the Padres. Overall, they’ve been one of the year’s disappointments and a middle-of-the-road offense this season with a .313 team wOBA (16th). This is also the cheapest we’ve seen Buehler in a while on DraftKings at just $9,100.
Chris Sale is the biggest favorite on the board (-265), but I still don’t think he’s all the way back yet, so he’s more of a tournament target to me. The Red Sox are in a precarious sort of spot with Sale, in that I’m sure they want to be cautious with him, given they are committed to him long term and he’s just coming off TJ surgery. But now they find themselves in the final week of the season in the thick of a playoff race, so who knows? I suppose in a perfect world, Alex Cora would want to get out to a big lead and let his bullpen finish up the game and not tax Sale too much, as he’s been held to under 90 pitches in all but one start so far. Then again, late September baseball is chaos and mayhem.
The Brewers have locked up the NL Central, so keep that in mind for Brandon Woodruff. There’s a good chance that Craig Counsell takes it easy with one of his aces, especially if he has a long inning.
There should be a fantastic pitcher’s duel tonight in Atlanta. This is a huge series with playoff implications as both teams fight for the NL East title. This is one of the few spots where I would give the edge to the road dog in Zack Wheeler, as I just think he’s the stronger pitcher of the two, although Charlie Morton has been nothing short of a stalwart for Atlanta this year. Wheeler is from Georgia, too, so he could have some fun in putting his hometown team’s playoff chances in peril.
|Adam Wainwright||vs MIL||$8,800/ $7,600||109||200.1||15.2%||29.8%||8.3%||1.04||3.06||3.72|
|José Urquidy||vs TB||$8,600/ $7,800||-131||96||16.9%||28.4%||11.70%||0.99||3.56||3.86|
|Logan Webb||vs ARI||$8,900/ $9,000||-253||136.1||20%||31.1%||12.2%||1.11||3.04||3.29|
The cheap tier is ugly tonight, as it doesn’t look like there’s a decent option below the $8,000 range on DraftKings. Logan Webb and the Giants are massive home favorites against the D-Backs (-253), who find themselves in a desperate battle with the Orioles for baseball’s worst record. The Giants, meanwhile, have a two game lead on the Dodgers in the NL West with an astounding 102-54 record. Pairing Webb with Buehler on DraftKings seems like a decent idea, on paper at least, as it gives a solid floor and also allows you $4,000 on average for your bats.
Adam Wainwright is the Rodney Dangerfield of pitchers. Sure, it might be easy to scream regression, but 200 innings of a 3.06 ERA and 1.04 WHIP speaks for itself. The man knows how to pitch. For better or worse, I don’t usually look at home/road splits, but Wainwright has been much better at home for his career (2.85 ERA home/ 3.94 ERA away), one which spans 2,369.2 innings. He’ll look to keep the Cards winning ways going as they ice up the second NL Wild Card.
José Urquidy is worth mentioning in that he’s been remarkably efficient this season with a 4.5% BB rate and 0.99 WHIP. However, the Rays are a tough lineup to get through, especially in the second half with the additions of Nelson Cruz and Wander Franco, who is chasing a remarkable on-base record. Urquidy too has not cracked 90 pitches since back on June 17 against the White Sox.
Bats and Stacks
- COL (6.5) vs. WSN Patrick Corbin (LHP) 10.6 K-BB%, .359 xwOBA, 1.47 WHIP, 5.76 xERA: Corbin has been a piñata against RHB all season. C.J. Cron (.363 xwOBA this season) seems like one of the easiest plays on the board at $3,600 on DraftKings.
- WSN (5.6) at COL Kyle Freeland (LHP) 14% K-BB, .313 xwOBA, 1.41 WHIP, 4.23 xERA: Sure, Freeland is a lefty and he has been pretty decent for the Rockies this year, but, the thought of fading Juan Soto (.432 xwOBA) at Coors Field is frightening. Lead-off man Lane Thomas (.317 xwOBA) has been productive and is certainly on the board at $4,100 on DraftKings.
- BOS (5.9) at BAL Bruce Zimmermann (LHP) 12.6 K-BB%, .375 xwOBA, 1.47 WHIP, 6.39 xERA: Bobby Dalbec (.342 xwOBA) stands out as an excellent value on DraftKings at just $3,100. Zimmermann has just a 20.2% K rate on the year, so that mitigates some of the swing and miss risk for Dalbec. Through his 11 starts this year, Zimmermann hasn’t been great against either handedness, allowing a .383 xwOBA to RHB and a .349 xwOBA to LHB. So, of course, don’t hesitate to click Rafael Devers (.385 xwOBA), who is one of the highest upside plays on the board considering the context. I’ve been low on J.D. Martinez (.369 xwOBA) this year, but he definitely will draw attention on DraftKings at $4,100. Considering the venue at Camden Yards, Boston should gain a lot of traction as a tournament stack but it’s hard to argue with the upside.
- CWS (5.2) vs. CIN Riley O’Brien (RHP): The Reds are bringing up a rookie to make the start tonight at Chicago. Looking at his minor league numbers, O’Brien has had some control issues with an 11.2% BB rate in Triple-A Louisville this season. It’s not an easy spot making his debut on the road against a lineup with a ton of power like the White Sox. Eloy Jiménez (.329 xwOBA) and Yoán Moncada (.349 xwOBA) stand out at a very reasonable $4,000 each on DraftKings.
- SF (5.0) vs. ARI Luke Weaver (RHP) 15.6 K-BB%, .324 xwOBA, 1.15 WHIP, 4.56 xERA: Losing Brandon Belt hurts the Giants lineup a lot, but I think you can look here if multi-entering in tournaments. Brandon Crawford (.350 xwOBA), Evan Longoria (.360 xwOBA), Buster Posey (.357 xwOBA), and LaMonte Wade Jr (.351 xwOBA) have all been productive hitters this season.
- LAA (4.6) at TEX A.J. Alexy (RHP) 0% K-BB, .345 xwOBA, 1.39 WHIP, 5.26 xERA: Shohei Ohtani (.403 xwOBA) goes without saying as a contrarian spend-up. Other than the likely AL MVP, there could be some value bats here if you need it. Brandon Marsh (.320 xwOBA) is a punt play at just over the minimum on both sites.
- HOU (4.8) vs. TB Michael Wacha (RHP) 17.2 K-BB%, .361 xwOBA, 1.39 WHIP, 5.84 xERA: The Astros are really priced up on DraftKings. But I think they are an interesting contrarian stack in tournaments. Of note: Wacha’s usual reverse splits have been on full display this year as he’s ceded a .373 xwOBA to RHB this season.
- MIN (n/a) vs. DET Tyler Alexander (LHP) 12.8 K-BB%, .326 xwOBA, 1.30 WHIP, 4.63 xERA: Byron Buxton (.383 xwOBA), Josh Donaldson (.380 xwOBA), and Jorge Polanco (.346 xwOBA) have all been productive this year and are worth considering as different targets in tournaments, as they face an average sort of starter in the lefty Alexander and a not so great Tigers bullpen in relief. Miguel Sanó (.318 xwOBA) is cheap on both sites and is, as always, a boom/bust play for tournaments.
- NYY (4.4) at TOR Hyun-jin Ryu (LHP) 14.9 K-BB%, .320 xwOBA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.44 xERA: This is another potential game to target for tournaments in that both lineups have power upside, but are going against capable pitchers: Jameson Taillon for the Yankees and Hyun-jin Ryu for the Blue Jays.
|Bobby Dalbec||1B||at BAL (Zimmermann)||$3,100||$3,000|
|Alex Verdugo||OF||at BAL (Zimmermann)||$3,100||$3,300|
|Brent Rooker||OF||vs DET (Alexander)||$2,300||$2,200|
|Miguel Sanó||1B||vs DET (Alexander)||$3,600||$2,600|
|Mitch Garver||C||vs DET (Alexander)||$4,000||$2,600|
|Brandon Marsh||OF||at TEX (Alexy)||$2,200||$2,300|
|Jared Walsh||1B||at TEX (Alexy)||$3,600||$2,900|
|Andrew Vaughn||OF||vs CIN (O’Brien)||$3,200||$2,200|
|Eloy Jiménez||OF||vs CIN (O’Brien)||$4,000||$3,400|
|Yoán Moncada||3B||vs CIN (O’Brien)||$4,000||$3,400|
|C.J. Cron||1B||vs WSN (Corbin)||$3,600||$3,800|
|Raimel Tapia||OF||vs WSN (Corbin)||$3,400||$2,800|
|Evan Longoria||3B||vs ARI (Weaver)||$3,700||$3,200|
|Bobby Bradley||1B||at KC (Singer)||$3,300||$2,500|
|Bradley Zimmer||OF||at KC (Singer)||$2,400||$2,500|