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Happy Monday! Down the stretch we come. We’ve entered the final full week of the regular season. Today, we get an eight-game slate on DraftKings that starts at 6:37, while we get a six-game slate on FanDuel starting at 7:05. As always, make sure you check FTN’s Lineups Page once lineups are out. They’ve also added a Projected Ownership page to help you get different with your lineups!
Top SP: Jacob deGrom, NYM ($10,500 DK, $11,500 FD) vs. TB
I’ll admit, this scares me some as deGrom left his previous start with a hamstring spasm. That being said, no one on this slate has the upside that deGrom has. He gets a matchup against the Rays which may seem a little scary on the surface. However, once we dive in, you get a Rays offense that has posted a .309 wOBA against righties over the last 14 days. During that time, they’ve also struck out at a 29% rate against right-handed pitching. deGrom is capable of racking up the strikeouts on his own, so the Rays adding to that total should ensure a 10 K game.
Value SP: Lance McCullers, HOU ($8,300 DK, $8,700 FD) at SEA
Lance McCullers showed us the upside that we knew he had in him all year as he went seven scoreless innings against the Rangers in his last start. He allowed just three base runners while striking out eight batters. Today he gets a Seattle team that is just playing for pride as they’re all but eliminated from playoff contention. Over the last seven days, they’ve posted a team wOBA of .276 against right-handed pitching while striking out 28.7% of the time. McCullers has the upside I look for in an SP2.
Honorable Mentions: Marco Gonzales, SEA ($7,600 DK, $8,500 FD) vs. HOU
OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM ($4,000 DK, $3,300 FD) vs. TB
A quick look at FTN’s Hot Hitter Report reveals that Brandon Nimmo is the second hottest hitter in the league. Over his last six games, Nimmo has posted a .478/.538/.913 triple slash. He has five extra-base hits during that time, including two homers and a triple. Today the Mets face Pete Fairbanks to start a Tampa Bay bullpen game. I don’t usually like to pick on bullpen games, because batters don’t have a chance to get used to a pitcher’s repertoire, but Nimmo is extremely hot and comes at a great price. That being said, I most likely will not be looking to stack the Mets.
1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL ($5,300 DK, $3,600 FD) at KC
I don’t think I realized just how good of a year Paul Goldschmidt was having. He managed to lower his strikeout rate to 17.1% while raising his walk rate to 17.1%. That’s on top of getting his batting average over .300. The power is down a little, but he’s posted a .400 wOBA for the year. Today the Cardinals face Carlos Hernández who has posted a decent 3.86 ERA over 9.1 IP this year. However, that comes along with a 4.90 SIERA as well as a 48.3% hard-hit rate. I like the Cardinals’ bats today on both sites.
Value Batter: 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT ($3,600 DK, $3,300 FD) vs. CHC
When Pirates’ prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes was coming up, everyone knew his glove was major league ready. What people weren’t sure of was his bat. Well, we’re 65 plate appearances in and so far, so good. Hayes has mashed three homers and currently sports an impressive 9.2% walk rate. In addition to doing a good job of being patient, he’s also posted a 59.5% hard-hit rate. On the bump for the Cubs is Jon Lester who has been in a downward spiral. Since August 16, Lester has allowed a 6.82 ERA on the back of a 40.2% hard-hit rate. I expect the bad times to continue today, but we’ll get to that in a minute.
Lineup Stack: Pirates vs. Cubs (LHP Jon Lester)
The Pirates stack is cheap enough that it allows us to pay up at pitcher today. As I mentioned in the Ke’Bryan Hayes writeup above, things are not going well for Jon Lester. Things are probably about to get worse before they get better. Over the last 14 days, the Pirates have posted a team wOBA of .352 and are walking at a 12% clip. In addition to Hayes, I’m looking to roster Josh Bell ($4,300 DK, $2,900 FD), Bryan Reynolds ($2,700 DK, $2,600 FD), Erik Gonzalez ($3,900 DK, $2,600 FD), and Jacob Stallings ($2,600 DK, $2,300 FD). None of these bats exceed $4,300 on DraftKings, making the Pirates stack a salary saver. Good luck today!
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)