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Top SP: Carlos Carrasco, CLE($10,400 DK, $9,900 FD) at DET
Let’s pick on the Tigers again. So far this season, the Tigers have a league-worst 28.4% team K rate against RHP. Carlos Carrasco struggled in his last outing against the Cubs, but he gets a much easier bounce back spot here against Detroit. Overall, Carrasco’s numbers are strong, including an 18.1% K-BB% and 13.6% swinging-strike rate. The Indians are very strong road favorites (-195) this afternoon, while the Tigers have the lowest implied team total on the board at 3.5 runs.
Note that if you’re playing on DraftKings, Max Scherzer is pitching game one of a double-header.
Honorable Mentions: Max Scherzer, WAS ($10,700 DK) at MIA.
Value SP: José Urquidy, HOU ($7,300 DK, $6,500 FD) vs ARI
The Diamondbacks are in evaluation mode and have been for a bit now so their lineup is one we’ve been picking on. José Urquidy went seven innings in his last start (90 pitches) against the Rangers and tallied seven strikeouts on 32% CSW. After a delayed start to his season, Urquidy is looking strong and he’s in an ideal spot to keep it up today. The Astros are very strong -204 favorites this afternoon.
Honorable Mention: Josh Lindblom MIL ($8,100 DK, $6,700 FD) vs KC.
SS Gleyber Torres, NYY ($4,300 DK, $3,200 FD) at BOS
Per the projections over at FTN, we shouldn’t hesitate in targeting the Yankees yet again today. They’ll be facing the rookie Tanner Houck today who is coming off a solid debut performance against the Marlins. But, we know how tough this lineup can be to pitch to. Gleyber Torres missed last night’s contest so he should be in there for today’s game as manager Aaron Boone is looking to give his players some rest down the stretch. Torres has not been great this year (.334 xwOBA this year), but the price point is appealing and there is certainly still potential upside to be had here. The Yankees have the highest implied team total on the board outside of the Coors game. On DraftKings, Giancarlo Stanton is at a very similar salary and he’s torn the cover off the ball in a small sample this year with a .487 xwOBA.
Honorable Mentions: Marcell Ozuna, OF ($5,300 DK, $4,000 FD) at NYM; Corey Seager, SS ($4,300 FD) at COL; Ronald Acuña Jr, OF ($5,900 DK, $4,400 FD) at NYM; Michael Conforto, OF ($5,000 DK, $3,400 FD) vs ATL.
OF George Springer, HOU ($4,700 DK, $3,700 FD) vs ARI
Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, Madison Bumgarner has not aged well. Maybe the veteran bounces back next year but at this point we should look to target hitters against him. This season, his K rate sits at 12.4%, by far a career-low along with a 7.4% swinging K rate. George Springer and his .406 xwOBA profiles really well here. Bumgarner has surrendered a .456 wOBA to righties this year, so don’t hesitate to target any righty in this lineup that includes Carlos Correa in tournaments.
Honorable Mentions: Alex Bregman, 3B/SS ($4,800 DK, $3,500 FD) vs ARI; Giancarlo Stanton, OF ($4,400 DK, $4,100 FD) at BOS, Max Muncy, 3B ($3,800 FD) at COL; Gleyber Torres ($4,300 DK, $3,200 FD) at BOS; Bo Bichette SS ($3,600 FD) at PHI.
Value Batter: 1B Yulieski Gurriel, HOU ($3,500 DK, $2,600 FD) vs ARI
As mentioned earlier with Springer, Bumgarner has struggled mightily this year and has given up 13 home runs in his 31.2 innings this year. Yulieski Gurriel should be hitting 5th or 6th today after getting the night off yesterday.
Another value play to consider is Randy Arozarena of the Rays who are at Camden Yards facing the southpaw John Means. We’ve seen Means pitch really well plenty of times, but Arozarena is cheap enough and should be hitting leadoff so there is certainly potential value to be had there.
Honorable Mentions: Randy Arozarena, OF ($3,300 DK, $2,700 FD) at BAL; J.D. Davis, OF ($2,800 FD) vs ATL; Jeff McNeil, OF ($3,400 DK, $2,900 FD) vs ATL; Daulton Varsho, C ($2,900 DK, $2,100 FD) at HOU; DJ Stewart, OF ($2,500 DK, $2,900 FD) vs TB; Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF ($3,500 DK) vs TB; Nate Lowe, 1B/3B ($3,400 DK, $2,900 FD) at BAL.
Lineup Stack: Mets vs Atlanta Braves (RHP Kyle Wright)
The Mets lineup has been very productive this season against RHP. They’re tied with the Dodgers for 2nd in team wOBA at.358 and tied for 1st with the Braves at 128 wRC+. The Mets can roll out a long lineup of left-handed hitters that could take advantage of Kyle Wright. He was at least a little better in his last start, but we’re still talking about a pitcher in Wright whose walk rate and K rate are equal. You’d figure that’s going to be a problem against a Mets lineup that leads the league in OBP against RHP at .359. Brandon Nimmo is the OBP king at the top, and he’s been a force against RHP this season with a .432 wOBA. The other standouts so far this year are Michael Conforto (.396 xwOBA), Dominic Smith (.414 xwOBA), Robinson Cano (.378 xwOBA), and Jeff McNeil (.367 xwOBA). Wright has allowed a blistering .475 wOBA to lefties (.353 against RHB) so they make the most sense on paper, while J.D. Davis (.382 xwOBA) and Peter Alonso (.327 xwOBA) carry upside in tournaments. Davis for some reason always seems to be too cheap on FanDuel.
As always, if you’re playing on FanDuel Coors Field is the key spot as the Dodgers face Antonio Senzatela.
The Yankees are in Fenway facing the rookie Tanner Houck who was impressive in his debut against the Marlins. Still, we know what the Yankees are capable of. They should have Giancarlo Stanton back this afternoon after he was held out of last night’s contest.
As of this writing, neither the Blue Jays nor Phillies have listed a starter for today’s game. Both pitching staffs have really struggled lately so that game makes a lot of sense to target bats in too.
Lastly, Dylan Cease is someone who has been skating by with some really unimpressive underlying numbers, maybe the Reds finally get to him making them an off the board team to think about in tournaments. The White Sox in that same game are also worth mentioning. They’ll be facing Michael Lorenzen who is making just his second start since 2018. They certainly have the power to break the slate wide open at the Great American Ball Park.
Honorable Mentions: LAD at COL (Senzatela); NYY at BOS (Houck); TOR at PHI (TBD); HOU vs ARI (Bumgarner); CWS at CIN (Lorenzen); ATL at NYM (Porcello).
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)