Thursday greets us with a rip roaring five-game slate featuring a game at Coors Field that should lead to a huge amount of overlap. Get your Atlanta/Colorado stacks ready. Without further ado, let’s see what awaits us tonight.
Tonight’s Pitching
Triston McKenzie makes his return tonight after a very brief stint on the IL with a shoulder injury. There’s risk, considering he’s coming off an injury and Cleveland might have him on a tighter leash tonight. Before the injury, he was beginning to shine putting together two excellent starts: a 34.7% CSW against Detroit on August 15th, followed by a 33% CSW against the Angels on August 21st. McKenzie finished each start with eleven strikeouts, so you know the upside is there.
So what do we do from there? Now, the options are just scary. Mike Minor is a favorite against Cleveland (-124). I guess that’s OK? But the strikeout upside just seems nonexistent. The Cubs and Pirates are both offenses we’ve been targeting but, yikes, I’m not sure there’s much to consider there between the likes of Mitch Keller and Keegan Thompson. If forced to pick, it would be Keller for me; he’s at least had a couple of decent starts, although they seem to be almost by accident. I’d rather target a couple of cheap bats on either side.
Bats and Stacks
- ATL (7.1) at COL Chi Chi González (RHP) 7.3% K-BB, .383 xwOBA, 1.44 WHIP, 6.68 xERA: Don’t tell anyone but there is a game at Coors Field tonight. Hopefully, nobody notices. Oh, great. Of course, the Rockies were kind enough to save their best to kick off their home stand tonight. Let’s just pretend Germán Márquez is pitching so we have something to think about. Joking aside, on a short slate, it’s all going to come down to finding a way to be a little bit different when stacking Atlanta, though note that it looks like Ozzie Albies will miss this one tonight.
- COL (5.7) vs ATL Touki Toussaint (RHP) 15.1% K-BB, .326 xwOBA, 1.15 WHIP, 4.59 xERA: The other side of the contest at Coors. On paper, the lefties make the most sense against Toussaint, who has allowed a .351 xwOBA to them this season (40 IP), putting Charlie Blackmon (.357 xwOBA this year) and Ryan McMahon (.328 xwOBA) on the radar with Samuel Hilliard as a potential punt in tournaments. The righty Connor Joe (.368 xwOBA) has also been impressive so far, showing off an excellent .380 OBP.
- NYM vs. MIA (TBD) Don Mattingly has yet to announce a starter for tonight’s game. It could potentially be Zach Thompson. If it is him or an RHP I have some interest in the lefties here in Brandon Nimmo (.353 xwOBA) and Michael Conforto (.356), as they are both cheap.
- PIT (3.8) at CHC Keegan Thompson (RHP) 9.2% K-BB, .349 xwOBA, 1.41 WHIP, 5.36 xERA: Thompson has only made three starts so far and pitched a total of 46.2 innings, but he hasn’t shown much in those innings. Bryan Reynolds (.377 xwOBA) is once again too cheap on DraftKings. Ben Gamel is a potential punt play from the leadoff spot. Ke’Bryan Hayes is having a down year but he showed a ton of upside last year (.363 xwOBA in 2020) and is certainly worth a play at his price ($3,600 DK/ $2,700 FD) if he returns to the lineup tonight.
- CHC (4.8) vs Mitch Keller (RHP) 8.8% K-BB, .365 xwOBA, 1.81 WHIP, 5.95 xERA: This is a battle of what’s worse, Keller or an offense led by Ian Happ? Or maybe I should say Rafael Ortega. You’re right, it’s actually Patrick Wisdom. If you’re picking and choosing here, Keller has been notably worse against lefties, with a .384 xwOBA allowed to them, along with just a 15.2% K rate.
- TB (4.3) vs Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP): I don’t really want to pick on E-Rod, but he definitely has his blowups and this is certainly one of the best lineups on the slate. Really, I just wanted a chance to mention Wander Franco (.330 xwOBA) and how awesome he’s been lately.
Value Bats
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)