Tuesday brings us an exciting 12-game slate headlined by the Giants at Coors Field and the Yankee ace Gerrit Cole.
The Top Tier
How many times have we seen the D-Backs as strong favorites? Zac Gallen makes a lot of sense in the mid tier, as he gets the Rangers and their .292 team wOBA, which is tied with the Pirates for the worst in baseball. Pairing Gallen with Snell seems like it could be a popular move on DraftKings tonight. A little bit more can net you Max Fried. The hard-throwing southpaw was fantastic in his last start out against the Dodgers (six IP, two ER, nine Ks, 27.3% CSW). He is one of the top home favorites on the board (-223) against basically Juan Soto and not much else. Jake Odorizzi is the antithesis of excitement, but he’s there by virtue of being a strong home favorite (-164). The Mariners do strike out a bit (25.6% team K rate, tied third with the Tigers) so that could help him out. Speaking of strikeouts, my condolences for Cubs fans as their team leads with a 26.9% team K rate. Wade Miley put up 30.2 DK points his last time out against this same lineup back on Aug. 16. The context tonight is brutal for Logan Gilbert, as he’s a road dog facing the Astros for the second time in a row. He’s an easy fade because of that, but I think he’s worth mentioning because his underlying skills are very good, so it’s not hard to imagine better days ahead for his 5.14 ERA. There is a decent chance he’s someone we end up looking at his next time out.
Bats and Stacks
- SF (6.9) at COL Chi Chi González (RHP) 6.3% K-BB, .383 xwOBA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.71 xERA: The Giants should be very popular as they continue their series at Coors Field. There are some movable parts with their lineup now that they have Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria back. This should be the top place to look for value, particularly on DraftKings, with bats like Tommy La Stella (.331 xwOBA), LaMonte Wade Jr (.352 xwOBA), and Darin Ruf (.385 xwOBA) all being cheap if they are starting.
- LAD (probably a lot) at STL J.A. Happ (LHP) 10.2% K-BB, .357 xwOBA, 1.53 WHIP, 5.68 xERA: No total yet, but given that the Dodgers are -200 without having an official starter, it should give us an idea that we should be targeting their lineup against one of the weakest pitchers on the board. Get your Happ stacks ready. The injury to A.J. Pollock might force the Dodgers to play Cody Bellinger (.274 xwOBA) against lefties. He’s at least very cheap. Don’t hesitate to target Mookie Betts (.357 xwOBA) and friends here as the Dodgers are excellent spends tonight.
- CIN (5.9) at CHC Adrian Sampson (RHP) 11.5% K-BB, .370 xwOBA, 1.53 WHIP, 6.46 xERA: Oh, hey! Here’s a name we haven’t seen in a while. These are his stats from back in 2019. So, maybe he’s changed following a stint in the KBO. Let’s take a look. Negative, that’s a 5.40 ERA and 1.56 WHIP across 130 IP in the KBO last year. Yeah, not great! We should be looking at Joey Votto (.401 xwOBA) and Nick Castellanos (.363 xwOBA) as excellent targets in all formats. It’s been a lost year for Mike Moustakas, but he’s your 2B punt du jour on FanDuel.
- NYY (5.1) vs TOR Steven Matz (LHP) 15% K-BB, .305 xwOBA, 1.34 WHIP, 3.99 xERA: After rolling over and playing dead in the series opener yesterday afternoon, maybe the Yankees get overlooked tonight? Stony Brook native Matz hasn’t been bad by any means, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the Yankees got to him, making them a tournament stack to consider as they still have the power upside to break a slate.
- BAL (5.0) vs KC Jackson Kowar (RHP) 0% K-BB, .392 xwOBA, 2.18 WHIP, 7.10 xERA: Kowar has made just three starts, so we don’t have much to go by, but so far it’s been bad. He did, however, look pretty good with Triple-A Omaha this year, with a 34% K rate, so that’s something. Still, I think there is some potential value with Orioles bats tonight, especially in hitter friendly Camden Yards. Trey Mancini (.346 xwOBA) seems a little but undervalued on DraftKings at $4,000 if he’s back in the lineup tonight.
- ATL (5.5) vs WSN Paolo Espino (RHP) 15.2% K-BB, .331 xwOBA, 1.15 WHIP, 4.77 xERA: Espino has been pretty decent so far, but I’m not sure I’m buying it as he has a K rate below 20% and an 11.6% barrel rate allowed. Atlanta is firmly on the board as a tournament stack. Freddie Freeman (.402 xwOBA) is, as always, a great spend up against a shaky RHP for all formats. Jorge Soler (.354 xwOBA) seems a little bit too cheap on DraftKings at $3,800.
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)