We’ve got another split slate tonight. On DraftKings, the main slate begins at 6:35 PM EST with the Dodgers/Pirates and the Brewers/Reds games. However, those two games aren’t featured on the FanDuel main slate. After a rain-soaked weekend on the east coast, it looks like we don’t have to worry about any rain tonight, which is always a plus.
Top Tier Pitching
Note: As we go through tonight’s pitching options, you’ll find their line from their previous outing, and in the table above you’ll find their combined stats from the 2021-22 seasons.
MacKenzie Gore : ($9,700 DK, $ 10,100 FD):@ CLE (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 100 pitches.
Michael Kopech: ($9,500 DK, $ 9,200 FD): @ CHC (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 83 pitches.
Brandon Woodruff: ($9,300 DK): vs CIN (W) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 95 pitches.
Carlos Rodón: ($10,000 DK, $ 11,100 FD): @ LAD (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 95 pitches.
Rodón is coming off a start against the Dodgers where he only managed three K’s, but I think we can forgive him considering the opponent. Now he gets the road Rockies and is the biggest favorite tonight, making him the easy top option for all formats. Unfortunately, Woodruff isn’t an option on FanDuel. On DraftKings, I think there’s some value to be had at his current salary, especially considering he gets the Reds, whom words fall short of adequately describing.
Kopech has tremendous potential, but I think he’s still figuring out how to be a starter and is just overpriced relative to Rodón and Woodruff. The Guardians have also been one of the stingier teams in terms of strikeouts with a 19.9% K rate, the fourth-lowest in baseball. The same can be said for the Padres’ rookie lefty, although his matchup against the Cubs is a little friendlier (24.1% team K rate, 10th highest in baseball).
Noah Syndergaard: ($7,900 DK, $9,000 FD): @ BOS (L) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 100 pitches.
Julio Urías: ($8,200 DK): vs SF (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 65 pitches.
Paul Blackburn: ($7,5oo DK, $8,600 FD): vs TB (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 64 pitches.
Michael Pineda: ($6,200 DK, $7,400 FD): vs PIT (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 85 pitches.
Austin Gomber: ($6,600 DK, $8,900 FD): vs WSH (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.
Outside of the obvious play of Urías against the Pirates on DraftKings, the value/mid-tier doesn’t seem to be replete with great options tonight. Urías and Rodón seem like the best pairing on DraftKings, as it gives you a decent amount of wiggle room with bats ($3,975 average salary). After the Dodger lefty, we’re left with some shaky options in the value tier. Syndergaard has the name value and having thrown 100 pitches his last time out while completing seven innings, he’ll be a way to gain access to more expensive bats if you double down in the mid-tier. But he is not the same man we remember back in his glory days with the Mets and is seemingly doing his best Andrew Cashner impression these days with a 14.6% K rate through his first four starts.
There are a couple of streamer types going against weak offenses like Pineda and Blackburn in the A’s/Tigers game. Of the two, I’d lean with Blackburn because he’s been the better pitcher so far this year. But then again, Pineda is cheaper and the Tigers are favored so, all things considered, neither truly stands out. Gomber has been very efficient in his last three starts and at $6,600 he might make sense as an SP 2 on DraftKings if you really need some savings, although he’s a massive road underdog against the Giants. In summation, there are some options here that might work out, but I think the right call is to avoid the group priced below Urías if you can.
Bats and Stacks
- MIA (4.5 implied run total) at ARI Humberto Castellanos (RHP) 7.2 K-BB%, 4.68 ERA, 1.35 WHIP: To reiterate, the value pitching tier isn’t great, so the key might be finding the right cheap bats to avoid it entirely. In that case, the Marlins could have some potential tonight against a susceptible pitcher in Castellanos. Jorge Soler is affordable on both sites and has the power upside to shake a slate. Same for Jesús Sánchez, who has been quiet lately. And, lest we forget, Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a fantastic spend-up option at second in a revenge spot.
- ARI (4.2 implied run total) vs MIA Elieser Hernandez (RHP) 16.2% K-BB%, 4.97 ERA, 1.36 WHIP: He’s allowed a .382 wOBA to LHB going back to last season. In that case, the D-Backs could also provide some value with the likes of David Peralta, Pavin Smith, Josh Rojas, and Ketel Marte, who might be waking up after a dreadful start. A top 20 prospect on most lists, Alek Thomas made his debut last night and is the stone minimum on DraftKings.
- TB (3.6 implied run total) at LAA Noah Syndergaard (RHP) 10.6% K-BB%, 3.12 ERA, 1.00 WHIP: Thor’s ability to strike out batters seems to have dissipated into thin air, so the Rays could be interesting for tournaments and stacking against him also provides SB upside. At the very least, Manuel Margot is an interesting value bat as a one-off.
- PHI (3.7 implied run total) at SEA Chris Flexen (RHP) 10.9% K-BB%, 3.54 ERA, 1.24 WHIP: Flexen’s limited bat missing ability makes him a little vulnerable and the Phillies have a ton of power making them an interesting, expensive stack for tournaments. The Mariner righty has shown some reverse splits with a .362 wOBA allowed to RHB over the last two seasons.
- CWS (4.4 implied run total) vs CLE Zach Plesac (RHP) 10.4% K-BB%, 4.63 ERA, 1.23 WHIP: Not ideal hitting weather in Chicago with winds blowing in, but Plesac is one of the weaker pitchers going. The Sox are getting Yoán Moncada back today; he’s an affordable option at 3B on both sites and will be on the stronger side of his split against the righty Plesac.
- MIL (4.4) at CIN Luis Castillo (RHP): Anytime you have a chance to stack against the Reds, you have to at least consider it. They are getting a brand name pitcher back tonight in Castillo, but it’s also his first start so who knows how effective he’ll be, making the Brewers an excellent tournament stack on DK.
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