TGIF! We have another 13-game main slate this Friday on both FanDuel and DraftKings. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET in Baltimore while we have five late games on the West Coast. With 26 teams in action tonight we have a lot to choose from but I’ll make it easy and share my favorite plays and stacks with you.
It’s important to have a process when playing DFS so I’ll share a few things I do every time I build a lineup.
Selecting a Pitcher
- To get a lot of fantasy points a pitcher needs to rack up the Ks. I look at a pitcher’s K% and the team K% of their opponent.
- Take a look at the lineup for the opposing team. Are all the regulars starting? How many L vs. R are there?
- Where is the game? Coors Field, Fenway Park, and Great American Ballpark are places to try and avoid.
- Look at the implied run totals for teams. Selecting hitters from teams with high IRTs is a good start.
- Look at the opposing pitcher’s stats. What is their weakness? LHH or RHH?
- Where in the lineup are they hitting? Finding cheap pieces batting near the top of the order is idea.
- Provides the best chance to win GPP tournaments
- 5-3 for DraftKings and 4-4 or 4-3-1 for FanDuel
- Diversify your stacks. Don’t always go for 1-4 in the batting order. Mix it up with the bottom of the lineup.
Ok, now that you know where to start, ready to win some money? Let’s go!
Timmy’s Top 3 SP
Today is ace-day and we have so many big arms to choose from. Scherzer, Cole, Darvish, Gausman, Bieber, Gilbert, and Lauer. Wait, what? Lauer, as in Eric Lauer? Yes, that guy. He’s priced at $9500 on FanDuel and at $10,300 on DraftKings. This might be the highest price he will ever be. Sure, he deserves it after striking out 24 batters in his last 13 innings but can he sustain this? I don’t think so, but I could be wrong. His velocity is up 1.5 MPH from 2021 and he looks tempting but with a matchup with the Braves and the second-highest price on DraftKings, I’m out on Lauer today. Who do I like? Well, a few guys, but these are who I’ll have the most exposure on.
Luis Garcia, SP, HOU
Garcia has had an ok start to the season. In 21.2 innings he has a 28.5% CSW to go with .99 WHIP. He’s had to face the Blue Jays two times already but tonight he gets an easier matchup at home. The Tigers have a 25% K rate and a wRC+ of 86, both rank 26th in the bigs. Garcia threw 87 pitches last time out and should hover around the 90 mark tonight. The Tigers are throwing Beau Brieske tonight and I like Houston’s chances to get the W for Garcia.
Yu Darvish, SP, SD
I’m not going to write up Cole because he’s Cole and we know his potential every outing. So I’m going to give you a fourth option tonight and it’s Yu Darvish. I love Jazz Chisholm and Jesus Aguilar is hot right now but Miami has a 24.3% K rate on the season and the current roster has struck out 19 times in 48 at-bats vs. Darvish. Yu has a solid 31.2% CSW and limits hard contact to 24%. This could be one of those double-digit strikeout games we see a few times a year from Yu.
Josh Winder, SP, MIN
Rookie Josh Winder dazzled in his first major league start just five days ago with a line of 6 IP, 1 BB, 0 ER, 7 K, and the W on 83 pitches. We don’t have a huge sample size but in the minors, he had 240 strikeouts in 236 innings and a .99 WHIP, pretty good. The Twins get Oakland tonight so why not let the kid get another start under his belt. Oakland has one of the worst offenses in the majors. A 26% K rate and .270 wOBA rank 29th only ahead of Cincinnati. The Twins will either get Cole Irving coming off the IL or a spot start from Zach Logue. I like the Twins here with Winder having a good shot for the W and those extra four points.
LA Angels vs. Joan Adon
Adon has surrendered 13 BB and 4 HR in 23 innings this season. He has a hard contact rate of 37.8% and get’s a tough Angels lineup with Taylor Ward being one of the hottest hitters in baseball. The Angels have some decent pricing where we can stack four including Trout and Ohtani if we want. I like Brandon Marsh and Max Stassi a lot for their prices on FanDuel and because they are hitting the ball hard the past few games.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Carlos Hernandez
I’ll admit, I streamed Carlos last season for a few decent outings, but for someone who can hit 98 MPH on the radar gun, he does not get a lot of swings and misses. Only a 24% CSW, 10 BB, and 8K in 18 innings this season. The Orioles are starting to hit and had five home runs last night vs. the Twins. I really like Cedric Mullins, Ramon Urias, and Ryan Mountcastle as a part of my stack today.
Brieske had an impressive start vs the Dodgers tossing five innings of one-run ball but he only had three swings and misses during his 90 pitches. Jose Altuve is back in the lineup and SS Jeremy Peña is hitting the ball well. This lineup is solid 1-9 led by Yordan Alvarez who has 8 HR and a 50% hard contact rate in 83 PA. I think Beau is going to have a rude awakening tonight.
Boston Red Sox vs. Vince Velazquez
My Sox got shut down and shut out by Ohtani last night striking out 11 times (13 total in the game) and recording only 6 hits in the game. Tonight is a bounce-back spot vs. a not-so-good pitcher. Vince has racked up the Ks in the past but over the past five seasons, he’s averaging a 5.25 ERA and a 9.7% BB rate. If he can’t find his command tonight, Devers and Martinez are going to make the White Sox pay with a bases-clearing dinger. The Sox will likely be unowned tonight because of last night’s poor showing.
Here are some of the best value bats for tonight. If you see a guy on this list, it’s safe to play other players from their team. We will see some value pop up once lineups are announced so use this as a reference and pay attention to the news, as there are always one or two guys batting at the top of a lineup that are not there on the regular.
Good luck tonight and I hope you win some beer money for the weekend!
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)