Tuesday gives us a 12-game slate on DraftKings as they opted to keep the second game of the Cubs/Dodgers doubleheader on the board.
The Top SP: Jacob deGrom ($11,100 DK, $12,500 FD) at STL
Do you recall the halcyon days of yore where there were those among us who dared to question his supremacy? What fools we were. Among qualified starters since 2020, he leads the field with a 22% swinging K-rate. Shane Bieber is second at 17.8%. It is with resolute conviction that his 44.7% K-BB rate leads tonight’s probable pitchers. Keep an eye on the weather in this one but otherwise, let’s just play Jacob deGrom and keep it simple.
For the capricious looking to fade the exalted one, Trevor Bauer (22.2% K-BB rate, 30.1% CSW 2019-21) will be pitching the second game of a doubleheader against the Cubs. Something to keep in mind as that could put the complete game bonus in play on DraftKings. Though, this game is not included in FanDuel.
Value SP: Nick Pivetta, BOS ($7,900 DK, $8,300 FD) vs DET
We’re doing this, aren’t we? Yes, luckily for Nick Pivetta (11.6% K-BB rate, 26.2% CSW 2019-21) he gets the matchup du jour with the Tigers and their league-worst .261 team wOBA. Along with that comes a 30.9% team K rate also the worst in the league. Walks have been a problem for Pivetta so far but, the Tigers, thankfully, don’t walk much so the risk is mitigated some. The weather in Boston looks like it should help pitching too with temperatures hovering around 50°.
Other matchup plays in the lower tier include both Justin Dunn (1.9% K-BB rate, 26.1% CSW 2019-21) as a home favorite against the Orioles, Mike Minor (15.7% K-BB rate, 28.6%, CSW 2019-21) against the Indians, and if you really want to punt Jorge López (11.6% K-BB rate, 26.7% CSW 2019-21) on the road against the Mariners and their 27% team K rate. All four options have specious underlying skills, to say the least so I’m leaning towards Pivetta’s matchup with the Tigers as a tie-breaker of sorts.
OF Teoscar Hernández, TOR ($4,200 DK, $2,900 FD) at OAK
I have a sneaking suspicion we may be talking about the Blue Jays a lot in the coming months. Cole Irvin (13.1% K-BB rate, 24.6% CSW 2019-21) is off to a strong start but it’s probably best to expect some regression. The former Phillie profiles as more of a backend starter with middling stuff, the best thing he does is limit walks but he’ll have little margin of error considering his lack of swing and miss (18.8% career K rate). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. goes without saying at this point, but it’s also worth mentioning Teoscar Hernández tonight as you’re getting him at a relative value as the cleanup hitter for one of the most potent lineups in baseball. Hernandez’s usual K risk could be mitigated somewhat by Irvin’s low K rate.
Honorable Mentions: Yordan Álvarez, OF ($4,700 DK, $3,600 FD) at NYY; Fernando Tatís Jr, SS ($5,800 DK, $4,400 FD) vs PIT.
1B Freddie Freeman, ATL ($5,700 DK, $4,000 FD) at WAS
Joe Ross (9.1% K-BB rate, 25.8% CSW 2019-21) has shown some wide splits for his career allowing a .365 wOBA to lefties and just a .291 wOBA to righties. Freddie Freeman makes a lot of sense as a spend-up target at first tonight.
Speaking of splits, Jorge López (11.6% K-BB rate, 26.7% CSW 2019-21) is another potential target too. Going back to 2019, he’s allowed a .390 wOBA to lefties, making Kyle Seager a strong option at third.
Value Batter: OF Michael Conforto, NYM ($3,600 DK, $3,000 FD) at STL
Here’s your daily reminder that Alex Kirilloff remains too cheap on both sites. Kyle Gibson (13% K-BB rate, 27.9% CSW 2019-2021) has done a fantastic job early on with both excellent command and implementing his new cutter, as Cole Bailey details here. Still, given the early returns, enormous pedigree and the salary that’s lagging behind Kirilloff is a tough value to avoid unless you are just looking to swerve away in tournaments.
Looking elsewhere, there’s still some value to be had in Michael Conforto’s salary right now. Just six starts in his career ledger, so there’s not a ton to pick apart with regards to Johan Oviedo (8.7% K-BB rate, 27.9% CSW 2020-21). However, his career 18.1% K rate does at least portend to a less than imposing matchup. In which case Conforto’s career .374 wOBA against RHP seems like a reasonable play at a discount here.
Honorable Mentions: Alex Kirilloff, OF ($3,200 DK, $2,600 FD) vs TEX; Jorge Soler, OF ($3,400 DK) vs CLE; Jake Cronenworth, 2B ($3,900 DK, $2,900 FD) vs PIT; Tommy Pham, OF ($2,600 DK, $2,300 FD) vs PIT.
Top Stack: SD vs PIT (RHP Mitch Keller)
An 8.20 ERA and 1.98 doesn’t belie the fact that Mitch Keller seems out of sorts right now. Through five starts his swinging K rate sits at just 9.4% while his K-BB rate is at 6.5%. A lot of that stems from trouble commanding his slider and curveball both of which have coincidentally surrendered a .432 xwOBA this year. Free passes have been a concern too as his walk rate stands at 14.1% on the year. Going back to 2019, Keller has allowed a .355 wOBA to RHB and .399 to LHB. All of this points to a possible eruption spot against a lineup that was fourth in baseball in home runs last year. Fernando Tatís Jr and Manny Machado are the top plays, of course, but don’t forget the lefties in Eric Hosmer (.359 wOBA last season), Jake Cronenworth (.356), and Trent Grisham (.349 wOBA). Tommy Pham (career .354 wOBA) has been battling injuries of late in addition to a rough start to this season; however, the result is just a $2,600 salary on DraftKings making him an appealing value play if he’s in there tonight.
Honorable Mentions: ATL at WAS (Ross); BOS vs DET (Fulmer); TOR at OAK (Irvin).
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)