Tonight’s eight-game slate is a tricky one, with three of the best offenses in baseball set to possibly explode, along with a lack of clear value pitching.
Cash Game Bats
The top offense of the night belongs to the Blue Jays, as they host the Orioles and Dean Kremer. The Jays are installed with a Coors Field-like implied total of six and a half runs. It’s not hard to see why given Kremer’s struggles, he’s a mess across the board as you can tell. And the Jays also welcomed George Springer back into the fold adding a huge bat to a lineup that has already churned out baseball’s second-best team wOBA at .332. Kremer, in particular, has struggled with righty bats, allowing a .374 wOBA (.360 xwOBA) to them going back to last year. Stocked to the brim with righty power, this lineup will not offer him much reprieve in that respect. Jamming in as many Jays as you can fit should be a popular approach. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($6,100 DK, $4,300 FD) comes with a massive ceiling, however, he’s also at a price point that comes with significant opportunity cost, especially considering the lack of viable value pitching tonight. Meanwhile, the aforementioned Springer ($3,800 DK, $3,600 FD) might just be the best value hitter on both sites.
The other clear spot for offense belongs to the Astros, who own an implied team total of just under six runs. José Ureña and a woeful Tigers pen shouldn’t provide much resistance for the Astros, who lead baseball with a .340 team wOBA. The former Marlin Ureña has had no answer for lefty batters, coughing up a .393 xwOBA to them going back to last year, which once again vaults the trio of Yordan Álvarez ($5,400 DK, $3,800 FD), Michael Brantley ($4,200 DK, $3,700 FD), and Kyle Tucker ($3,900 DK, $3,00 FD) into the forefront. Abraham Toro ($3,100 DK, $2,100 FD), who had a .462 wOBA for Triple-A Sugar Land prior to his callup, is a value play lower in the order.
Nick Pivetta has been decent this year, limiting hitters to a respectable .325 xwOBA. But, here’s your reminder that Wander Franco ($3,800 DK, $2,700 FD) chalk week continues, as there is still value at his current salary.
My best guess is that the Dodgers come in a little less popular relative to the Astros and Jays since they have a more benign implied team total of just under five runs, although I suspect that total gets pushed up a little more before all is said and done. It creates a potential buying opportunity in tournaments considering their opponent the righty Zach Davies has been a wreck this season with a K-BB% approaching zero in addition to an alarming xwOBA of .383. In terms of individual plays, Cody Bellinger ($4,300 DK, $3,500 FD) looks too cheap on both sites and is on the board for all formats.
The Reds game might be a potential leverage spot for tournaments. The Braves have yet to announce their starter as of this writing, so this is a potential blow-up spot for the likes of Nick Castellanos ($4,900 DK, $3,800 FD), Jesse Winker ($5,800 DK, $4,000 FD) et al and they should all be nominally represented in tournaments with the Jays and Astros gaining most of the attention. The other side of this game is of note too, considering that Reds starter Tony Santillan didn’t show too much swing and miss ability through his first two starts, and it came with walks, too. Although, the viability of a Braves stack will almost certainly hinge on the status of Ronald Acuña Jr. ($6,200 DK, $4,400 FD), who was a late scratch last night with back pain.
The Twins are actually tied with Toronto for the second-most home runs in baseball at 107. They get a matchup tonight against Cleveland’s rookie J.C. Mejía, who has struggled a bit with just a 22.9% K rate and .353 xwOBA allowed. For tournaments, I’m definitely interested in bats like Nelson Cruz ($5,200 DK, $3,800 FD) and Alex Kirilloff ($3,500 DK, $2,700 FD) against a suspect young pitcher. Don’t forget about the Twins, as they could slip under the radar a little tonight. If you’re looking for a punt play at 2B, Luis Arraez ($2,800 DK, $2,400 FD) could hit leadoff and looks like an excellent value. Similar to the Dodgers, the Twins have an implied team total of just under five runs.
As mentioned, we’ve been streaming against the Pirates all year, but tonight Carlos Martínez might warrant action in the opposite direction. The veteran righty owns a 6.62 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 15.6% K rate through 68 IP. He’s allowed a .325 wOBA to opposing hitters this year and that’s backed by a more salient .373 xwOBA, so there’s a case to be made that he’s actually been the recipient of some fortunate variance. All told, it’s a little surprising that the Cardinals haven’t yanked the cord on his tenure in the rotation. One of the stronger values on DraftKings is Bryan Reynolds ($3,200 DK, $3,200 FD). The switch-hitter is having a sensational season, hitting .306 with a .397 OBP. But, he hasn’t seen much recognition for it, as only a brave few willingly watch the Pirates with rapt attention these days. Ke’Bryan Hayes ($4,500 DK, $3,100 FD) is another excellent option, but we’re paying full price for him on DraftKings, so he doesn’t stick out as much of a value as his teammate Reynolds. Gregory Polanco ($2,700 DK, $2,700 FD) was once upon a time one of the game’s more prominent prospects, but injuries intervened. He still has power though and is a dart-throw for tournaments. Colin Moran ($2,500 DK, $2,500 FD) is another potential value here too. If you’re multi-entering tournaments, mixing in some Pirates should give you a unique lineup.
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)