Hold on to your hats, Tuesday brings us a full slate of games with all thirty teams in action. There could be some weather lurking in Boston tonight, so that will be worth monitoring as the Jays offense should be popular once again. Without further ado, let us traverse tonight’s maelstrom.
The Top Tier
Narrative alert, but I think this could be a potential let-down spot for the Mariners after last night’s dramatic win. That aside, the Mariners have a .296 team wOBA (third worst) and the worst K rate in baseball at 26.5%, so this is a legitimately great matchup for Lance McCullers Jr. who has had a CSW% of over 33% in each of his last four starts. He’s my guy in the top tier tonight.
Robbie Ray has been phenomenal. He has the best K-BB% of the slate at 25.2%. But he gets Boston (.328 team wOBA, fifth) for the second time in a row. They were tough on him last time out as they hit three home runs off of him as he was only able to get through five innings. He’s got that ceiling though and makes for an interesting pivot for tournaments off of McCullers Jr.
I can’t argue against Julio Urías from a skills perspective, as he’s been tremendous. He has the second-best K-BB% on the slate at 21.3% while holding batters to a .297 xwOBA. But I will take this opportunity to selfishly complain about his workload as he’s been held under 90 pitches in three of his last five starts. He’s at 119 innings this year, his previous major-league high being just 79.2 back in 2019, so you know the Dodgers are going to try and manage this as best they can, making him a potential fade in the top tier.
Value/Mid-Tier Pitchers
Sandy Alcantara hasn’t shown a big K rate this year, however, he’s done an excellent job limiting hitters to just a .279 xwOBA and 3.5% barrel rate. Context may not be isn’t in his favor tonight in that the scene shifts to hitter friendly Camden Yards, but this is still a beatable Orioles lineup with a .303 team wOBA (23rd).
Kenta Maeda should be popular tonight. He’s posted four reasonably decent starts in a row now and finds himself as the biggest favorite on the board as he hosts the Tigers (26.3% team K rate, 2nd highest).
I really like Logan Webb’s (not listed above) $6,900 salary on DraftKings as a potential SP2, however, I’m going to hold off tonight for at least one more start as we wait for his pitch count to come back up (75 his last time out), and it’s a tough start against the Dodgers.
José Suarez doesn’t stand out from a skills perspective, but he’s there as your pitcher against the Road Rockies. I’m not excited, but he’s cheap enough to be considered as an SP2.
Considering his 17.1% K-BB%, Jordan Montgomery is a bargain at $6,700 on DraftKings, though the Rays’ addition of Nelson Cruz makes his task tonight a tougher one for sure. Still, I think he’s an option as an SP2 tonight.
If you are looking for a swerve off Maeda, you should consider Dylan Cease. They are at just about the same salary on both sites. Cease has that big strikeout upside that we’re looking for in tournaments. He can struggle with efficiency at times, but thankfully the Royals have the second-lowest walk rate in baseball at 7.4%, which could work in his favor tonight.
Bats and Stacks
No surprise here, the Jays lead the way with an implied team total of 5.5 runs. They’ll see Garrett Richards (RHP) tonight as they continue their series at Fenway Park. Richards is someone we’ve been targeting as he’s allowed a ton of hard contact (.362 xwOBA allowed) along with a 17.6% K rate. It’s worth noting, though, that his slider did work well in his last start returning a 37.9% CSW against these same Jays. Regardless, this lineup’s power ceiling leads the way.
The White Sox get Brad Keller (RHP) at Kansas City. He’s allowed a .388 xwOBA to RHB this year and that comes with an 18.7% K rate and 6.46 xERA. Eloy Jiménez, who returned last night from the IL, remains a tremendous value on DraftKings. The same can be said for the rookie Andrew Vaughn, who has started to find his stride at the plate. After being stymied against Mike Minor last night, you shouldn’t hesitate to target the White Sox again tonight, they’re my favorite stack of the night. Yoán Moncada is too cheap on FanDuel.
Tonight’s game at Citizens Bank Park should see offense on both sides. The Phillies have an implied total of 5.3 runs and will face Erick Fedde (RHP) who carries a 4.88 ERA and 1.39 WHIP into tonight. He’s also allowed a .348 xwOBA to lefties this season making Bryce Harper one of the better bats to spend on tonight. On the other side, Matt Moore (LHP) has allowed a .344 xwOBA along with a 5.12 xERA and 1.60 WHIP. Juan Soto makes sense as a spend up option here too.
Some other specious pitching worth attacking tonight with implied team totals.
- MIA (5.0) at BAL: Spenser Watkins (RHP) 7.7% K-BB%, .316 xwOBA, 1.16 WHIP, 4.23 xERA. A suspect young pitcher in Watkins. He had some decent numbers this year for Triple-A Norfolk, though. Still, you don’t see the Marlins with this sort of total often.
- STL (4.6) at CLE: Cal Quantrill (RHP) 8% K-BB%, .350 xwOBA, 1.35 WHIP, 5.32 xERA. Tyler O’Neill is too cheap on DraftKings.
- TEX (4.7) vs. ARI: Taylor Widener (RHP) 15.2% K-BB%, .351 xwOBA, 1.27 WHIP, 5.36 xERA. This offense has been a wreck all year. But Nate Lowe is cheap and this is a potential buy-back for Adolis García, considering Widener has allowed a .380 xwOBA to RHB.
- CIN (4.4) at CHC: Adbert Alzolay (RHP) 17.8% K-BB%, .331 xwOBA, 1.11 WHIP, 4.69 xERA. Alzolay has some sharp splits in favor of LHP. Jesse Winker and Joey Votto make sense with Tyler Naquin as a potential punt.
- CHC (5.7) vs. CIN: Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP) 5% K-BB, .338 xwOBA, 1.45 WHIP, 4.92 xERA. Lowest K-BB% on the slate, Cubs make sense but their lineup isn’t at full strength right now. The wind could give a bump to offense tonight at Wrigley Field.
- MIN (5.4) vs. DET: Tyler Alexander (LHP) 14.6% K-BB%, .316 xwOBA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.23 xERA. This lineup right now is pretty awful. I’m mostly interested in Josh Donaldson as a one-off. Miguel Sanó is an option for tournaments.
- PIT (4.1) vs. MIL: Brett Anderson (LHP) 7.3% K-BB%, .378 xwOBA, 1.37 WHIP, 6.39 xERA. It’s time to unleash Ke’Bryan Hayes. Anderson has been roasted against RHB (.390 xwOBA). Bryan Reynolds is once again affordable too.
- HOU (4.5) at SEA: Chris Flexen (RHP) 10.4% K-BB%, .309 xwOBA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.03 xERA. Flexen has done a good job limiting contact, but there’s some likely regression here (15.6% K rate) and this is still an elite offense in the Astros. Kyle Tucker and Michael Brantley are both too cheap on DraftKings.
Value Bats
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)