Saturday night features a nine-game slate to pick through with a bunch of bats to choose from highlighted by the White Sox and Brewers along with potential fireworks at Camden Yards. On the pitching side, Lance Lynn leads the way against the Cubs.
The Top Tier
Value/Mid-Tier Pitchers
The SP 2 landscape isn’t great tonight. Huascar Ynoa seems like the default option. Nine K’s and a 32.3% CSW across six innings against the Yankees his last time out so he has looked sharp. The Giants have been a productive lineup (.326 team wOBA, sixth) this year but they should be without two of their better hitters in Evan Longoria (IL) and Brandon Belt (bereavement list).
David Price is a big favorite (-249) against the road Rockies at least but having thrown just 75 pitches his last time out the upside seems very limited. John Means has the most upside at just $7,200 on DraftKings but there is, of course, a blowup risk against the Rays.
Bats and Stacks
- CWS (5.4) vs Alec Mills (RHP) 10.8% K-BB, .327 xwOBA, 1.49 WHIP, 4.63 xERA: We saw last night what the White Sox lineup can do now with Yasmani Grandal in the mix too who is too cheap on FanDuel ($2,500). Mills is just not a good bet to stop them. He has really been crushed by lefties (.377 xwOBA allowed) giving a potential bump to Grandal, Yoán Moncada, and Cesár Hernández.
- MIL (5.6) at Charlie Barnes (LHP) 0.9% K-BB, .391 xwOBA, 1.63 WHIP, 7.04 xERA: Righties have crushed Barnes in his brief stint this year (.421 xwOBA allowed) putting Avisail Garcia (.376 xwOBA this year), Willy Adames (.324 xwOBA), and Luis Urias (.327 xwOBA) on the radar. Barnes has just an 8.7% K rate against lefties so I wouldn’t hesitate to add in Christian Yelich too (.341 xwOBA) as the Brewers look like a top offense to pick from.
- HOU (5.5) at Kolby Allard (LHP) 15% K-BB, .332 xwOBA, 1.19 WHIP, 4.79 xERA: Allard has pitched reasonably well this year and has at least done a very good job at limiting walks, but the Astros lineup is even more dangerous now with Alex Bregman back in there.
- STL (4.9) at Steven Brault (LHP) 12% K-BB, .354 xwOBA, 1.07 WHIP, 5.55 xERA: This is about as good of a night as any to plug in Paul Goldschmidt (.386 xwOBA). Tyler O’Neill (.393 xwOBA) too.
- SD (5.2) at José Suarez (LHP) 12.3% K-BB, .293 xwOBA, 1.31 WHIP, 3.65 xERA: Suarez is similar to Allard, he’s done a decent job limiting walks and hasn’t been awful but he is also not someone to avoid hitters against by any means. Fernando Tatís Jr (.406 xwOBA), is, as always, the top option at shortstop. There are some potential FanDuel values in Tommy Pham (.348) and Wil Myers (.301 xwOBA).
- TB (5.9) at John Means (LHP) 18.5% K-BB, .305 xwOBA, 1.01 WHIP, 3.97 xERA: The Rays have an excellent implied team total at just under six runs, but I’m looking at this as a sort of a boom/bust spot as we know John Means is capable of pitching really well. You’ll never see me argue against Nelson Cruz (.366 xwOBA) though.
- BAL (4.3) vs Michael Wacha (RHP) 15.3% K-BB, .370 xwOBA, 1.51 WHIP, 6.15 xERA: The Orioles could be a lineup that gets overlooked, but Wacha has had all sorts of trouble this year allowing a ton of baserunners and loud hits. The decision to ditch switch-hitting has worked out exceedingly well for Cedric Mullins (.352 xwOBA). Trey Mancini (.343 xwOBA) seems too cheap on both FanDuel ($3,100) and DraftKings ($4,000). There are some potential value bats here too with Anthony Santander (.344 xwOBA) and DJ Stewart (.319 xwOBA) on DraftKings.
- NYM (5.1) vs Sean Nolin (LHP): I’ll be honest it’s gotten to the point where I want to just ignore the Mets, but this Sean Nolin character isn’t very good. Pete Alonso (.370 xwOBA) in tournaments, maybe? J.D. Davis (.342 xwOBA) looks like a decent value bat with power upside too.
- LAD (5.6) vs Jon Gray (RHP) 13.7% K-BB, .298 xwOBA, 1.30 WHIP, 3.78 xERA: Gray has pitched really well this year, so I don’t necessarily want to stack bats against him. But it’s the Dodgers and that lineup can blow up any slate making it a stack for tournaments and I think they should come in at a low roster % relative to their upside tonight. If you’re looking for a one-off, Corey Seager (.354 xwOBA) is a good option as a swerve off Tatís Jr in tournaments.
Value Bats
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