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Tropical Storm Laura has altered our DFS schedule slightly as today’s Astros/Angels game has been postponed. That gives us nine-game main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel. Regardless, there’s no stopping our fun. Mike Clevinger makes his return to the Indians after his night out. We also get Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw on the bump. Does that make it the hump-bump since it’s Wednesday? Before I descend into life’s big questions, let’s get to it. As always, make sure you check their Lineups Page once lineups are out.
Top SP: Sonny Gray, CIN ($8,800 DK, $10,200 FD) at MIL
Does anyone know what’s wrong with DraftKings pricing algorithm? Sonny Gray has been priced over $9,400 all year. He went six innings in his last outing allowing two earned runs and his price drops. I’ll take the discount, but there’s zero chance that he’s not super chalky tonight. Gray’s been great to start the year and gets a Brewers team that has struggled all year against righties. Yes, they managed to put up 7 runs over the last two nights against Trevor Bauer and Luis Castillo, but even with those games, their team wOBA against righties sits at .277. Gray is my favorite cash play on tonight’s slate.
Value SP: Elieser Hernandez, MIA ($6,600 DK, $8,200 FD) at NYM
Elieser Hernandez has had an excellent start to the 2020 season. In four starts he’s posted a 2.29 ERA over 19.2 innings. His strikeout rate is through the roof this year as he’s managed to raise it from 24.1% in 2019 to 32.9% in 2020. He’s also lowered his walk rate to 4%. Long term, I’m not sure this is fully sustainable. He’s surviving with a .209 BABIP and 93.8% LOB rate. He’s also had homer problems in the past and is allowing a 54.3% fly-ball rate. Granted, that is due to his approach of fastballs up high in the zone and sliders buried down in the zone, but I still fear the homers.
Today, Hernandez gets a Mets team that struggled mightily in their return from their COVID break. They got shut out over 14 innings of the double-headers yesterdays. Shut out for 14 innings against the Miami Marlins pitching. At this price on DraftKings, I’m willing to roll the dice on the regression staying away.
Honorable Mentions: Jon Gray, COL ($6,200 DK, $6,700 FD) at ARI
OF Trent Grisham, SD ($3,900 DK, $3,100 FD) vs. SEA
We all know about the three-homer game that Trent Grisham had on Saturday. Since that game, his price has risen a whole $400. Since August 17th, Grisham has posted 4 multi-hit games. Today, the Padres get a matchup with Taijuan Walker. I’m rooting for Walker, I really am, but I’m not going to ignore his struggles. In 2020, Walker has allowed a 48.6% hard-hit rate to lefties that has led to a .311 ISO and .388 wOBA. Walker’s struggles make Grisham an extremely attractive option at this price tag.
1B Matt Olson, OAK ($5,600 DK, $3,300 FD) at TEX
Matt Olson is more of a GPP play, but I wanted to highlight the situation. Olson and the Athletics face a lefty in Kolby Allard. The A’s projected lineup has eight righties in it, with Olson being the lone lefty. However, this year, Allard has struggled more against lefties (44.4% hard-hit, 55.6% FB%, .313 ISO) than against righties (31.3% hard-hit, 50% FB%, .132 ISO). From Olson’s perspective, he’s excelled against lefties this year posting a .400 ISO and .418 wOBA thanks to a 70.6% fly-ball rate and a 52.9% hard-hit rate. With a lefty-lefty matchup, I expect this to be an extremely low owned spot for Olson.
Value Batter: OF JaCoby Jones, DET ($2,500 DK, $2,700 FD) vs. CHC
You’ll have to keep an eye on FTN’s Lineup Page as JaCoby Jones left Tuesday’s game with calf tightness. However, if he’s in the lineup, he should lead off and has mashed lefties this year. Small sample alert, but in 19 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this year, Jones has posted a .529 ISO and .468 wOBA – that’s pretty decent. The Tigers face Jon Lester and the regression bug finally caught up to him in his last two outings as he’s allowed 13 earned runs over 9.2 IP. Righties have hit him particularly hard, posting a .280 ISO. The Tigers as a team have been decent against lefties, posting a .342 wOBA over the last 14 days, so don’t be afraid to have a little three-man Tigers stack if you need to save some cash.
Honorable Mentions: Leodys Tavares, OF ($3,100 DK, $2,000 FD) vs. OAK; Wil Myers, OF ($3,600 DK; $3,000 FD) vs. SEA
Lineup Stack: Padres vs. Mariners (RHP Taijuan Walker)
According to FTN’s Lineup Optimizer, the Padres have a projected run total of 5.1 runs. That is the 6th highest total on today’s slate, but other than the Dodgers (who are really expensive), the Padres are my favorite team to stack. As I noted in my Trent Grisham writeup, Taijuan Walker has struggled against lefties this year. The Padres feature a trio of lefties that are reasonably priced in Grisham, Eric Hosmer ($4,200 DK, $3,500 FD), and Jake Cronenworth ($3,800 DK, $2,800 FD). If you’re okay with that three-man stack but want to complete the five-man, there’s nothing wrong with adding two of Fernando Tatis, Jr ($5,800 DK, $4,600 FD), Manny Machado ($5,000 DK, $3,700 FD), and Wil Myers ($3,600 DK, $3,000 FD). Good luck today!
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)