DFS Plays of the Day – August 24

Tonight’s 14-game slate is an interesting one with a selection of several high upside pitchers led by Corbin Burnes. Offensively, it’s a tricky slate to decipher; outside of the Red Sox, there don’t seem to be too many places that stick out.

The Top Tier

	Opp	ML	Salary (DK/FD)	IP	K-BB%	CSW%	SwStr%	WHIP	ERA	xERA
Corbin Burnes	vs CIN	-184	$10.6/ $11.5	127	30.5%	34.3%	16.3%	0.91	2.13	1.81
Charlie Morton	vs NYY	-140	$9.0/ $9.6	140	20.3%	31%	12.3%	1.09	3.47	3.39
Jack Flaherty	vs DET	-212	$9.6/ $10.3	74	19.9%	28.5%	12%	0.96	2.68	4.15
Tyler Mahle	at MIL	168	$9.9/ $9.2	143.1	14.4%	26.8%	12.3%	1.16	3.52	3.63
Luis Garcia	vs KC	-219	$9.7/ $8.3	116.2	21.3%	31.5%	14%	1.11	3.39	3.73
Yu Darvish	vs LAD	107	$9,400 DK	131.1	24.2%	30.6%	12.6%	1.03	3.70	3.10
Julio Urías	at SD	-127	$9.2/ $9.7	139.2	21.1%	30.6%	11.9%	1.07	3.29	3.47

Corbin Burnes is the top option of the board with a 30.5% K-BB. He’s faced the Reds once already this year as he finished two outs short of a complete game with 12 Ks, a reminder of his upside. His last start was an odd one against the Cardinals, as he managed just three Ks—still that just seems like a blip. Skills wise, there’s no knocking him. But the one thing to keep an eye on is his pitch count; he’s at 127 innings on the year, easily a career-high and you have to wonder if the Brewers try to limit his workload as best they can the rest of the way. Still, assuming we get somewhere around 90 pitches, Burnes is the slate’s top option. Jack Flaherty made his second start back after a long absence with an oblique injury and was impressive with 8 Ks over six innings backed by a 29.3% CSW against the Brewers. And we saw his pitch count climb up to 92. He’s one of the biggest favorites on the board (-212) against a Tigers that has a 25.9% K rate (third highest) and will be without the DH.Morton was fantastic in his last start against the Marlins registering nine Ks with a 35% CSW. A matchup against the Yankees might draw rosters away from Charlie Morton. At $9,000 on DraftKings, he’s still a strong buy considering the skills he has shown, despite the added power risk that the Yankee lineup presents (he’ll at least face them at home without the DH). And there might also be a chance the Yankees sit Giancarlo Stanton after starting him in the outfield last night.

Both Yu Darvish and Julio Urías are tentatively scheduled to return from the IL and face each other tonight. It’s not a great matchup for either one and given that they are coming off injuries, albeit minor ones—I’m looking at them more so as tournament options. If your angle is roster % in tournaments, they are interesting options as they should be relatively unpopular. I’d lean towards Darvish who I think has the higher upside in terms of pitch count.

Value/Mid-Tier Pitchers

		ML	Salary (DK/FD)	IP	K-BB%	CSW%	SwStr%	WHIP	ERA	xERA
Eli Morgan	vs TEX	-162	$7.7/ $6.8	54.1	18.1%	27.4%	10.5%	1.23	5.80	4.92
Madison Bumgarner	at PIT	-151	$7.0/ $8.7	106.1	15.9%	27.8%	9.4%	1.10	4.06	3.97
Tylor Megill	vs SF	-110	$6.9/ $7.3	56	19.4%	26.8%	12%	1.16	3.21	2.87
Tanner Houck	vs MIN	-226	$7.9/ $6.7	34.2	27.1%	29.3%	13.4%	1.15	3.12	3.10
Germán Márquez	at CHC	-147	$8.2/ $9.0	147	16.5%	28.9%	12.9%	1.17	3.80	3.81

Away from Coors Field and facing a Cubs team that has the worst K rate in baseball at 26.7%, you have to like Germán Márquez’s chances at putting up an excellent line tonight. The man has handled far tougher challenges all year. He is one of the top options on the board for all formats, especially on DraftKings where he is just $8,200.

Eli Morgan is a strong home favorite (-162) against the woeful Rangers and their league-worst team wOBA of .288. Morgan has shown some ability too, recording eight Ks across six innings against the Twins his last time out. He also had an impressive start against the Blue Jays a couple of starts ago with nine Ks across five innings and has shown plus control with just a 5.2% BB rate. At $7,700 on DraftKings there is definite SP2 appeal with Morgan.

Tanner Houck is an interesting option in that the Red Sox are tonight’s biggest favorite (-220) and he has so far shown a ton of ability to miss bats with an excellent 31.9% K rate. But, he’s not a great bet to go much past five innings. On DraftKings, he seems miscast at $7,900—where just $300 more can net you Márquez, making him more of a dart throw for tournaments.

Tylor Megill has shown upside this year with a 25.9% K rate through 11 starts. It’s a difficult matchup against the Giants (.327 team wOBA, sixth) still, there is potential as an SP2 at $6,900 on DraftKings.

Bats and Stacks

BOS (6.1) vs Griffin Jax (RHP) 10.7% K-BB, .346 xwOBA, 1.25 WHIP, 5.26 xERA: Boston has the top implied team total on the board facing the rookie Jax. The top half of the lineup are all excellent options including Rafael Devers (.387 xwOBA), Xander Bogaerts (.357 xwOBA), J.D. Martinez (.373 xwOBA), and Kyle Schwarber (.400 xwOBA). Alex Verdugo (.342 xwOBA) is one of the best value bats on the slate ($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD).

LAA (5.7) at Spenser Watkins (RHP) 5% K-BB, .362 xwOBA, 1.55 WHIP, 5.84 xERA: Fire away with the Angels as they’ll face Watkins who has not provided much resistance through his eight starts this year. Shohei Ohtani (.420 xwOBA) costs a fortune on DraftKings, but this is as good of a spot as you could draw up. Jared Walsh (.318 xwOBA) and Justin Upton (.325 xwOBA) both have power upside, with Upton being a potential value for tournaments.

HOU (5.1) vs Brady Singer (RHP) 12.8% K-BB, .317 xwOBA, 1.60 WHIP, 4.32 xERA: Singer relied on his sinker to get a ton of called strikes his last time out against the Astros and it worked, but it’s the sort of approach that’s susceptible to break down. Yordan Álvarez (.381 xwOBA) and Michael Brantley (.367 xwOBA) stand out here as they’ll have the platoon advantage.

STL (4.9) vs Casey Mize (RHP) 12.2% K-BB, .342 xwOBA, 1.17 WHIP, 5.12 xERA: Mize had a decent run early in the year but he’s leveled off since. His indicators aren’t great either, notably a .342 xwOBA versus a .318 wOBA allowed suggesting some negative regression could be possible. The Cardinals are probably best suited as tournament plays, Tyler O’Neill (.394 xwOBA) carries excellent upside for that sort of format at just $3,600 on DraftKings.

Value Bats

	Position	Opp	DraftKings	FanDuel
Alex Verdugo	OF	vs MIN (Jax)	$3,500	$3,000
Anthony Santander	OF	vs LAA (Bundy)	$2,800	$2,900
DJ Stewart	OF	vs LAA (Bundy)	$2,200	$2,300
Tyler O’Neill	OF	vs DET (Mize)	$3,500	$3,000
Lars Nootbar	OF	at DET (Mize)	$2,100	$2,200
Jesús Aguilar	1B	vs WSN (Fedde)	$3,600	$2,900
Carter Kieboom	3B	at MIA (Luzardo)	$2,100	$2,800
Brendan Rodgers	2B/SS	at CHC (Steele)	$4,200	$2,800
David Peralta	OF	at PIT (Brubaker)	$3,100	$3,200
Daulton Varsho	C/OF	at PIT (Brubaker)	$3,600	$2,800
Justin Upton	OF	at BAL (Watkins)	$3,400	$2,900
Jesús Sánchez	OF	vs WSN (Fedde)	$3,000	$2,300
Andrew McCutchen	OF	at TB (Rasmussen)	$3,800	$2,900
J.D. Davis	3B/OF	vs SF (Long)	$3,200	$3,000

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

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DFS Plays of the Day – August 24

Ryan Amore

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