Tonight’s 14-game slate is an interesting one with a selection of several high upside pitchers led by Corbin Burnes. Offensively, it’s a tricky slate to decipher; outside of the Red Sox, there don’t seem to be too many places that stick out.
The Top Tier
Away from Coors Field and facing a Cubs team that has the worst K rate in baseball at 26.7%, you have to like Germán Márquez’s chances at putting up an excellent line tonight. The man has handled far tougher challenges all year. He is one of the top options on the board for all formats, especially on DraftKings where he is just $8,200.
Eli Morgan is a strong home favorite (-162) against the woeful Rangers and their league-worst team wOBA of .288. Morgan has shown some ability too, recording eight Ks across six innings against the Twins his last time out. He also had an impressive start against the Blue Jays a couple of starts ago with nine Ks across five innings and has shown plus control with just a 5.2% BB rate. At $7,700 on DraftKings there is definite SP2 appeal with Morgan.
Tanner Houck is an interesting option in that the Red Sox are tonight’s biggest favorite (-220) and he has so far shown a ton of ability to miss bats with an excellent 31.9% K rate. But, he’s not a great bet to go much past five innings. On DraftKings, he seems miscast at $7,900—where just $300 more can net you Márquez, making him more of a dart throw for tournaments.
Tylor Megill has shown upside this year with a 25.9% K rate through 11 starts. It’s a difficult matchup against the Giants (.327 team wOBA, sixth) still, there is potential as an SP2 at $6,900 on DraftKings.
Bats and Stacks
- BOS (6.1) vs Griffin Jax (RHP) 10.7% K-BB, .346 xwOBA, 1.25 WHIP, 5.26 xERA: Boston has the top implied team total on the board facing the rookie Jax. The top half of the lineup are all excellent options including Rafael Devers (.387 xwOBA), Xander Bogaerts (.357 xwOBA), J.D. Martinez (.373 xwOBA), and Kyle Schwarber (.400 xwOBA). Alex Verdugo (.342 xwOBA) is one of the best value bats on the slate ($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD).
- LAA (5.7) at Spenser Watkins (RHP) 5% K-BB, .362 xwOBA, 1.55 WHIP, 5.84 xERA: Fire away with the Angels as they’ll face Watkins who has not provided much resistance through his eight starts this year. Shohei Ohtani (.420 xwOBA) costs a fortune on DraftKings, but this is as good of a spot as you could draw up. Jared Walsh (.318 xwOBA) and Justin Upton (.325 xwOBA) both have power upside, with Upton being a potential value for tournaments.
- HOU (5.1) vs Brady Singer (RHP) 12.8% K-BB, .317 xwOBA, 1.60 WHIP, 4.32 xERA: Singer relied on his sinker to get a ton of called strikes his last time out against the Astros and it worked, but it’s the sort of approach that’s susceptible to break down. Yordan Álvarez (.381 xwOBA) and Michael Brantley (.367 xwOBA) stand out here as they’ll have the platoon advantage.
- STL (4.9) vs Casey Mize (RHP) 12.2% K-BB, .342 xwOBA, 1.17 WHIP, 5.12 xERA: Mize had a decent run early in the year but he’s leveled off since. His indicators aren’t great either, notably a .342 xwOBA versus a .318 wOBA allowed suggesting some negative regression could be possible. The Cardinals are probably best suited as tournament plays, Tyler O’Neill (.394 xwOBA) carries excellent upside for that sort of format at just $3,600 on DraftKings.
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)