Saturday gives us another short main slate featuring just six contests. The weather in Baltimore looks suspect as of this writing so we’re steering clear of that game. If it clears, Chris Bassitt (13.1% K-BB%, 27.8% CSW 2020-21) would be an option to consider against an unimposing Oriole’s lineup. While the A’s lineup would carry upside in tournaments against the Oriole’s mystery starter at Camden Yards.
Top SP: Trevor Bauer, LAD ($11,000 DK, $11,000 FD) vs SD
The Dodger’s latest investment has paid off so far. Trevor Bauer (30.2% K-BB%, 31.1% CSW 2020-21) has managed a 2.42 ERA and 0.62 WHIP through his first four turns. It’s a tough matchup against the Padres who have managed to strike out at just a 21.7% rate as a team (2nd lowest). Regardless, Bauer has the top K rate on the board tonight at 37.5% on the year.
His counterpart tonight, Blake Snell (21.6% K-BB%, 29.5% CSW 2020-21) is second at 34.3% in what figures to be tonight’s premier pitcher’s duel. Bauer should give you the volume you’re looking for in the top tier as he’s been anywhere from 96-110 pitches in each start this season. The Dodgers are modest home favorites this evening (-138) while the Padres’ implied total is the second-lowest on the board at 3.3 runs.
The Coors discount on Aaron Nola (25.1% K-BB%, 32.3% CSW 2020-21) certainly puts him on the board on such a small slate. There’s risk of course but given Nola’s strong skills and an offense in the Rockies that has thus far managed just a .295 team wOBA (24th), there’s upside worth chasing too.
Value SP: Pablo López, MIA ($6,900 DK, $8,200 FD) at SF
On DraftKings in particular there’s some strong value in the salary attached to Pablo López (17.8% K-BB%, 27.2% CSW 2020-21). Relative to tonight’s other probable pitchers, his K-BB% of 19.8% this season is fifth, just behind Snell (20%). He gets a shot at redemption tonight against the Giants who handed him a tough 1-0 loss in his last start in which he recorded nine strikeouts (31% CSW) while throwing 101 pitches over six innings. The Giants have so far this year managed a 25.2% K rate as a team (9th worst) and just a .299 wOBA (20th).
Dallas Keuchel (8.3% K-BB%, 26.3% CSW 2020-21) is the matchup play of the evening. The underlying numbers haven’t been noteworthy in a long while for Keuchel and so far this year it’s more of the HAISTFMFWT variety with a 12.7% K rate backed by a 26.6% CSW through four starts. The other thing here is potential downside in pitch count as the lefty has been held to under 70 pitches in three of his four turns to date. Still, if he’s going to spike a ceiling performance tonight would be the night against the Rangers and their abysmal 28.8% K rate as a team, 2nd worst so far this season. The Rangers are strong home favorites this evening (-160). Despite that, I think if I’m forced to select a pitcher in this game I’d have more interest in Kyle Gibson (10.3% K-BB%, 27.9% CSW 2020-21) who has at least shown a little bit of strikeout upside so far this year. He’s also coming off of an impressive eight innings against the Orioles his last time out (97 pitches).
OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL ($5,200 DK, $3,200 FD) vs ARI
The hope for a Madison Bumgarner (10% K-BB%, 26.5% CSW 2020-21) revival of sorts this year was a bump in velocity. That’s come to fruition so far as the veteran is averaging 90.1 on his four-seamer as opposed to the 88.4 we saw last year. Still, there are plenty of alarming indicators namely an xERA of 6.86 and an xwOBA of .412 so far this year. Bumgarner still has the looks of a susceptible pitcher and that’s indicated by the line too with the Braves installed as huge home favorites (-190) with an implied total well over five runs. Marcell Ozuna has gotten off to a dreadful start but this still an excellent hitter who mashed to the tune of a .444 wOBA (.435 xwOBA) just last year.
OF Bryce Harper, PHI ($6,000 DK, $4,800 FD) at COL
The Rockies will be tossing out the righty Antonio Senzatela whose 4.9% K-BB% is the lowest among starters from 2019-21 (min 200 IP). Bryce Harper, who owns a career .393 wOBA vs RHP, should be massively popular on this short slate but it would be difficult to orchestrate a better spot outside of warmer weather.
Honorable Mentions: Ronald Acuña Jr, OF ($6,400 DK, $5,100 FD) vs ATL; Luis Robert, OF ($4,800 DK, $2,800 FD) vs TEX.
Value Batter: 3B Alec Bohm, PHI ($3,800 DK, $3,200 FD) at COL
This sets up as an excellent get right spot for Alec Bohm who has scuffled a bit out of the gate slashing just .219/ .274/ .344. Still, last year he was impressive managing a .381 wOBA (.357 xwOBA) while hitting .338 over 44 games. He gets the matchup du jour tonight against Antonio Senzatela (7.4% K-BB%, 24.4% CSW 2020-21) at Coors Field.
Although he gets a tougher draw against Gibson mentioned earlier, Luis Robert still continues to be priced very affordably relative to his upside on FanDuel.
Top Stack: PHI at COL (RHP Antonio Senzatela)
At the risk of beating the proverbial dead horse, it’ll be tough avoiding the Phillies tonight especially so on such a short slate. They’ve easily got the highest implied total of the evening at just under six runs. As mentioned earlier, Senzatela doesn’t grade out well to put it nicely. Going back to 2019, he’s been slightly worse against lefties with a .359 wOBA allowed as opposed to .343 against righties. Combine that with Rockies’ relievers so far combining for a 5.43 ERA and there might be too much upside here to pass up. As always in Coors, hitters at the bottom of the order can be a way to differentiate in this case Mickey Moniak and Brad Miller (.377 xwOBA last year) make for potential candidates in tournaments.
Honorable Mentions: ATL vs ARI (Bumgarner); CWS vs TEX (Gibson); OAK at BAL (TBD) *Weather risk.
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)